“Reed seriously staffs up & the 6th CD by the numbers” (posted by Sarah Janecek, Oct. 6, 2009)

Excerpts

Certain to be one of the most-watched Congressional contests in the country is the race to beat the always controversial U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN6). As such, we can expect a ton of outside interference and money in the race. To date, only two people are mounting serious campaigns for the DFL endorsement, Sen. Tarryl Clark (DFL-St. Cloud) and Dr. Maureen Reed, an internal medicine MD and former chair of the U of M Board of Regents.

At this point, the two campaigns are engaged in the crucial battle to demonstrate to all those outside-the-state players that their gal has the better shot at taking Bachmann out. Who’s winning right now?

At first blush, the candidate with the most momentum appears to be Clark. She’s lined up impressive personal endorsements that include former Vice President Walter Mondale and two-time candidate Patty Wetterling. [...]

But this is the Sixth District, where, in a blow-out year for Democrats in 2008, Bachmann defeated Elwin Tinklenberg by 2.2%. Where the suburban/exurban electorate arguably lives in the heart of “no new taxes” country. Where labor takes a back seat to business. And, most unfortunately, for Clark, as the designated media spokesperson for her DFL Senate Caucus, she was the face of the Senate’s $2 billion tax-raising plan. There’s plenty of video for the Republicans to work with in the heat of the campaign. [...]

Other notes on the race:

[...]

* The rumor that Reed might drop out of the DFL contest and run as an Independent is untrue.

* We’ve heard Sen. Tarryl Clark (DFL-St. Cloud) has been touting election numbers in her Senate District (SD 15) as leading indicators of how she could do in an election in the entire Sixth Congressional District.

That’s surprising, since the numbers indicate to us that Clark would have a much more difficult time than the less liberal Maureen Reed.

Judge for yourself. Here are the numbers:

>> 2008. President Barack Obama won SD 15 by 13% but lost the CD by 9%.

>> 2008. U.S. Sen. Al Franken (D) lost SD 15 by 3% and lost the CD by 16%.

>> 2008. DFL Congressional candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg won SD 15 by 11%, he lost the CD by 3%.

>> 2006. U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar won SD 15 by 11% and won the CD by 4%.

Chris Cillizza writes in his Washington Post political blog that two of the nation’s leading political prognosticators, Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato, are predicting that “Democrats are headed for a world of hurt in 2010 with losses of 20 or more seats not out of the question,” while a third respected political analyst, Stu Rothenberg, is “slightly more circumspect about just how bad the environment is for House Democrats.”

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/the-line/friday-house-line-5.html

Jeff Tyler says Bachmann “isn’t only an embarrassment to the GOP. … How she got elected and worse yet, re-elected, is beyond my ability to comprehend.”

Bachmann may be an embarrassment to the GOP, but apparently not for the GOP.

Why Bachmann gets elected and re-elected may seem incomprehensible, but it’s not a mystery. You don’t need to delve deeply into the personal psychology of 6th District voters to understand why they vote for Bachmann.

It’s not a complex matter of personal dynamics; it’s a simple case of political dynamics as described in any political science textbook dealing with campaigns and elections.

Specifically, roughly 90 percent of voters vote their party-political identification — the single most powerful predictor of election outcomes — and nearly 60 percent of 6th District voters self-identify as Republican or Republican leaning.

MN-06 is the state’s most solidly Republican district, meaning that Erik Paulsen in MN-03 and John Kline in MN-02 are theoretically more vulnerable than Bachmann. Stated differently, if Bachmann is defeated it will be in a Democratic sweep in which every Republican running in a congressional or statewide race is also defeated.

By virtue of simple demographics, it’s incredibly difficult for a Democrat to gain even 40 percent of the 6th District vote. Before Bachmann’s anti-American rant on “Hardball,” El Tinklenberg was polling in the 30s.

Former Vice President Walter Mondale when he ran for Senator in 2002 and Sen. Al Franken in 2008 both got less than 40 percent of the 6th District vote.

Before Patty Wetterling broke the 40-percent barrier in 2004, DFL congressional candidate Janet Robert received a mere 35 percent of the vote in 2002.

It’s a district gerrymandered to be a Republican stronghold. Take a look at a map of the district and notice how the district wraps around the Twin Cities metro at the bottom to exclude Democratic inner-ring urban and suburban areas while including Republican-leaning outer exurbs.