From the article: “Most DFLers seem to think that the IP in general and Anderson in particular cost the DFL the last election in the district (Bachmann, 46.4 percent; Tinklenberg, 43.4; Anderson, 10.04). The logic seems to be that the voters are voting for or against Bachmann and the IP candidate splits the anti-Bachmann vote.”

That was my thinking, too. But when I work the numbers, the empirical support just isn’t there, or weak at best.

For Tinklenberg to have defeated Bachmann in a hypothetical two-way race, we would first have to assume that all of Anderson’s 40,643 voters (a) would have turned out at the polls and (b) expressed a preference for either Tinklenberg or Bachmann (as opposed to, say, spoiling the ballot, voting for a write-in candidate, or writing in “Lizard People,” Mickey Mouse, or Ham Sandwich).

Second, for Tinklenberg to have won, he would have had to gain two out of every three Anderson votes, which would have given him a narrow 50.1 percent to 49.7 percent victory over Bachmann. However, that flies in the face of the well-documented pattern that undecided voters tend to break for the incumbent — in this case, Bachmann.

Even if Tinklenberg and Bachmann had split the Anderson vote 50-50 in a hypothetical two-way race, Bachmann would still have won, 51.4 percent to 48.5 percent.

Additional analysis at the links below:

http://www.immelman.us/news/can-a-democrat-beat-bachmann/

http://www.immelman.us/news/how-to-beat-bachmann/

As a Republican campaign volunteer for Democrat Patty Wetterling in two elections, I’ve concluded that the only viable strategy to defeat Bachmann is to shut her down in the September Republican primary — but that cannot happen if there are contested Democratic races in the 6th District U.S. House or Minnesota gubernatorial races.

Bachmann’s Achilles’ heel is not her outrageous political rhetoric or delusional conspiracy theories; it endears her to her base. Bachmann’s Achilles’ heel is Minnesota’s open primary system, which allows Democrats and Independents to vote along with reasonable Republicans against Bachmann in the Republican primary.

In 2008, barely 19,000 of the 6th District’s more than 430,000 registered voters turned out for Bachmann. Anyone with the means and ability to mobilize 20,000 voters from across the political spectrum in the Republican primary can beat Bachmann. …

I’m skeptical that *any* Democrat can win in the Sixth. Approximately 96-97% of incumbents are reelected and as a second-term incumbent Bachmann will be less vulnerable than she was in 2008. In addition, Democrats won’t have Obama at the top of the ticket to get out the vote. Moreover, the party in the White House typically loses seats in the first off-year election after winning the presidency. Thus, Democratic prospects in the 6th District will be bleaker in 2010 than they were in 2006 and 2008.

Of course, it’s not beyond the realm of possibility that Rep. Bachmann will crash and burn in the next year, but it seems to me the more outrageous her inflammatory political rhetoric, the more delusional her conspiracy theories, and the more florid her political paranoia, the more popular she becomes with her base.

Hope springs eternal, but any Democratic primary challenge will be a sure recipe for disaster in 2010. As noted in the article, it will pit Democrat against Democrat until mid-September, leaving less than two months to campaign against Bachmann.

I remain convinced that the most viable strategy to defeat Bachmann is to knock her out of contention in the open Republican primary, but that cannot happen if there are contested Democratic races in the 6th District U.S. House or Minnesota gubernatorial races. More information at the link below:

http://www.immelman.us/news/how-to-beat-bachmann/

All three Democrats named in the article have unique strengths: Elwyn Tinklenberg acquired a national profile after Bachmann’s Oct. 2009 anti-American rant on “Hardball”; Maureen Reed has strong credentials and a no-nonsense, “can-do” attitude; and Tarryl Clark has a strong political resume and plenty of personal charisma.

Whoever advances to the general election ballot will have a difficult row to hoe. The 6th is Minnesota’s most Republican district, meaning that on paper it would be tougher for a Democrat to defeat Bachmann than it would be to defeat Kline or Paulsen.

The truth of the matter is that 96-97% of incumbents are reelected and as a second-term incumbent Bachmann will be even less vulnerable than she was in 2008. In addition, Democrats won’t have Obama at the top of the ticket to get out the vote.

I remain convinced that the most viable strategy to defeat Bachmann is to knock her out of contention in the open Republican primary. More detail at link below:

http://www.immelman.us/news/how-to-beat-bachmann/