Betty writes: “Aubrey, get the hell out of the race and endorse Tarryl. And Anderson dude … Give it up.”

Immelman and Anderson getting out of the race would be a sure-fire recipe for a landslide Bachmann victory and a humiliating, double-digit Clark loss.

An analysis of poll results shows that Anderson and Immelman have jointly shaved about 8 percentage points off Bachmann’s poll numbers. No amount of money could buy Clark that kind of advantage and smart Clark supporters know that the most helpful thing they can do for their candidate is to help Immelman get out his anti-Bachmann message. In politics, that means $$, of which I’ve spent about $20,000 of my own.

Here’s the analysis. If the table layout makes interpretation difficult, go to http://www.immelman.us/news/mn-6-poll-bachmann-approval-53/ and scroll down to see the original table.

Public Policy Polling (Dec. 17-20, 2009)
Bachmann 55%
Clark 37%
Undecided 8%

KSTP/SurveyUSA (July 9-11, 2010)
Bachmann 48% (-7 since Anderson and Immelman joined the race)
Clark 39% (+2 since Anderson and Immelman joined the race)
Anderson 6%
Immelman 2%
Undecided 5% (-3 since Anderson and Immelman joined the race)

Bachmann shed 7 percentage points since the first poll. That can be accounted for by the combined 8 points in the second poll for IP candidate Bob Anderson and independent former Republican Aubrey Immelman, two conservative candidates whose names did not appear on the first survey.

In addition, Clark’s 2-point gain since the first poll comports with the 3-point reduction in the Undecided column. It is plausible that Clark’s active campaigning and improved name recognition since the first poll accounts for the reduction in undecided voters.

Help level the playing field at http://www.immelman.us/contribute/

Thursday, July 15, 2010, 11:23:17 AM

On July 14, 2010, Aubrey Immelman wrote:

“For Clark, her mission is to close the gap. Getting Bachmann under 50 percent is a big move …”

That’s not a very good analysis. Its major flaw is that it fails to account for the fact that the first poll (Public Policy Polling ) surveyed a hypothetical head-to-head contest between Bachmann and Clark, whereas the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll offered respondents a choice among all four candidates on the November ballot.

Here’s a comparison of the two sets of poll results. If the table layout makes interpretation difficult, go to http://www.immelman.us/news/mn-6-poll-bachmann-approval-53/ and scroll down to see the original table.

Public Policy Polling (Dec. 17-20, 2009)
Bachmann 55
Clark 37
Undecided 8

KSTP/SurveyUSA (July 9-11, 2010)
Bachmann 48 (-7)
Clark 39 (+2)
Anderson 6
Immelman 2
Undecided 5 (-3)

Bachmann shed 7 percentage points since the first poll. That can be accounted for by the combined 8 points in the second poll for IP candidate Bob Anderson and independent former Republican Aubrey Immelman, two conservative candidates whose names did not appear on the first survey.

In addition, Clark’s 2-point gain since the first poll comports with the 3-point reduction in the Undecided column. It’s plausible that Clark’s active campaigning and improved name recognition since the first poll accounts for the reduction in undecided voters.