Summary: The Presidential Electability Index (PEI) developed by Aubrey Immelman at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics predicted more than a year ahead of the 2016 presidential election that Donald Trump would win.

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Summary: The Personal Electability Index (PEI), which has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996 (prior to Super Tuesday), is at variance with every conventional election-outcome forecasting model (on Election Day 2016). The Personal Electability Index projected in August 2015 that Donald Trump would win the Republican primary and go on to beat either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in the 2016 presidential election. As polls opened on November 8, 2016, conventional election-outcome forecasting models predicted a comfortable Clinton victory in the Electoral College.

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Summary: The Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics (USPP) “Media Tipsheet” offers political reporters looking for a fresh story angle a sometimes unique, often unconventional perspective on politics.

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Summary: Opinion polls show support for President Barack Obama and his policies dipping sharply, though he remains personally more popular than his policies. How will these dynamics impact the 2010 election and what do they tell us about President Obama’s personal qualities and leadership style? … One-year retrospective: One year ago today, on the 54th day of his campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann for the Republican nomination as House of Representatives candidate in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, volunteers handed out campaign literature in downtown Forest Lake (Washington County) and at the Old Creamery Arts & Crafts Show in Rice (Benton County), while Immelman had a meet-and-greet at the Saint John’s University football season opener in Collegeville. He also featured information from the WCCO voters guide regarding his campaign platform and issue positions.

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Summary: Politico reports that Charlie Cook has sent out a special update to Cook Political Report in which he envisions a scenario in which Democratic House losses could exceed 20 seats in 2010. … One-year retrospective: One year ago today, on the 39th day of his campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann for the Republican nomination as House of Representatives candidate in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, Aubrey Immelman started his second walking tour — a 50-mile campaign swing down Minnesota Highway 23 from Foley in the east through St. Cloud, Waite Park, Rockville, Cold Spring, and Richmond to Paynesville on the western boundary of the Sixth Congressional District.

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Summary: First in a two-part series examining the outlook for the 2010 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District. Part I surveys the political environment in which the contest will take place. Part II, to follow closer to the election, will take a look at the candidates. … One-year retrospective: On the 13th day of his campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann for the Republican nomination as House of Representatives candidate in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, Sunday, July 27, 2008, Aubrey Immelman posted a public service announcement to help raise funds for memorials in honor of U.S. soldiers killed in Iraq and Afghanistan and observed a day of rest.

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Summary: Can U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) be defeated in the 2010 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District? Yes, but not by a Democrat in the general election. Rep. Bachmann is most vulnerable in the primary election against a more moderate Republican challenger. The trump card for Bachmann opponents is Minnesota’s open primary system. With no party registration in Minnesota, self-identified Democrats and Independents are able to vote in the Republican primary against Bachmann, joining forces with disaffected Republican voters. The fact that Bachmann did not receive a majority of the votes in either the primary (47.2%) or the general election (46.4%) in 2008 underscores her vulnerability.

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