Intelligence Study Finds Chaos in Afghanistan

Pakistani tribesmen take part in an operation against Islamic militants. (Photo credit: Mohammad Sajjad / AP)

October 9, 2008

WASHINGTON — U.S. intelligence agencies conclude in a draft report that Afghanistan is in a downward spiral and they doubt whether the Kabul government can stem the Taliban’s rise, The New York Times reported on Thursday.

The classified [National Intelligence Estimate] says corruption inside President Hamid Karzai’s government and an increase in attacks by militants operating from Pakistan have accelerated the breakdown in central authority in Afghanistan, the Times said, citing U.S. officials familiar with the document. …

Agencies across the U.S. government, including the State Department and Pentagon, have launched a review of U.S. strategy in Afghanistan seven years after U.S.-led forces ousted the Taliban government. …

The New York Times said the estimate, or NIE, is set to be finished after the November elections and will be the most comprehensive U.S. assessment in years on Afghanistan.

An NIE is a formal document that reflects the consensus judgments of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies, often based on separate intelligence reports previously given to policymakers. …

Intelligence agencies declined to discuss the new report, but a U.S. counterterrorism official said: “We’ve been saying for some time that the tribal areas along the Afghan-Pakistan border are a source of serious concern. That’s where a lot of terrorists who wish us and our allies harm are holed up and are involved in training and planning for terrorist operations.”

The Pentagon has also voiced concern about deteriorating security in Afghanistan, where an intensifying insurgency in recent months has helped make the country deadlier than Iraq for U.S. troops.

Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress a month ago he was not convinced the U.S.-led effort was winning in Afghanistan. He and Defense Secretary Robert Gates have said more development and investment aid are needed to buttress security operations. …

U.S. Army Gen. David Petraeus said on Wednesday that negotiations with some members of the Taliban could provide a way to reduce violence in sections of Afghanistan gripped by the intensifying insurgency. …

Full story

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Related report:

U.S. study is said to warn of crisis in Afghanistan
(New York Times, Oct. 9, 2008)

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IRAQ UPDATE

An Iraqi wounded woman waits for treatment at the Baquba central hospital, northeast of Baghdad, on Oct. 9, 2008 following a roadside bomb. A Sunni militia leader working with U.S. forces was killed in the roadside blast along with three other family members, security officials said. (Photo credit: AFP / Getty Images)

Security Developments in Iraq

Following are security developments in Iraq Wednesday-Thursday, Oct. 7-8, 2008 as reported by Reuters.

BAQUBA – A female suicide bomber wearing an explosive vest killed 10 people, including five soldiers and a policeman, and wounded 21 on Wednesday in Baquba, capital of Iraq’s Diyala province north of Baghdad, police said.

ISKANDARIYA – A bomb wounded four people in Iskandariya, 25 miles south of Baghdad, police said.

ISKANDARIYA – A roadside bomb killed one policeman and wounded one other in Iskandariya south of Baghdad on Tuesday, police said.

MUSSAYAB – Police found a body in Mussayab, 40 miles south of Baghdad.

BAGHDAD – Saleh al-Ugaili, a member of the al-Sadr bloc in parliament, was killed in a bomb blast in the al-Habibiya district of eastern Baghdad. Two of his bodyguards were killed and three wounded.

Relatives carry the coffin of Iraqi lawmaker Saleh al-Auqaeili, loyal to anti-U.S. Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, outside his home in Baghdad, Iraq, on Thursday, Oct. 9, 2008. Officials say Thursday’s explosion occurred as al-Auqaeili’s car passed about 200 yards away from an Iraqi army checkpoint in a heavily secured area near Baghdad’s main Shiite district of Sadr City. At Friday prayers in Sadr City on Oct. 10, supporters of Muqtada al-Sadr shouted anti-American slogans as gunfire gripped the Baghdad Shiite district ahead of al-Auqaeili’s burial. (Photo credit: The Associated Press)

TAL AFAR – One policeman and one civilian were killed and three people wounded by a bomb planted inside a restaurant in the town of Tal Afar, 260 miles northwest of Baghdad, police said.

AL-ZAB – Gunmen killed the leader of U.S.-backed neighborhood patrol groups in the al-Zab area, 20 miles southwest of Kirkuk, on Wednesday, police said.

BAGHDAD – A civilian was killed and four wounded, including two traffic policemen, when a roadside bomb exploded near their patrol in the Sadr City district of northeastern Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL – Gunmen killed a Christian man on Wednesday near his home in eastern Mosul, 240 miles north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL – Gunmen killed an off-duty policeman in a drive-by shooting in eastern Mosul, police said.

ISKANDARIYA – Three Iranian pilgrims were wounded on Wednesday night when a roadside bomb exploded near their vehicle on the main road near Iskandariya, 25 miles south of Baghdad, police said. They were heading to the holy city of Najaf.

MOSUL – Three Iraqi soldiers were wounded on Wednesday when a roadside bomb exploded near their patrol in Mosul, police said.

MOSUL – A roadside bomb exploded near a police patrol, wounding one civilian and one policeman in Mosul on Wednesday, police said.

MOSUL – Police found the body of an unidentified man shot in the head and chest in eastern Mosul.

KIRKUK – Two women were wounded on Wednesday when a mortar round landed on their house in the northern city of Kirkuk, 155 miles north of Baghdad, police said.

AL-SHAMALIYA – A sticky bomb attached to a car carrying employees of Kerbala governing council, killed one and wounded two in the village of al-Shamaliya, west of the Shi’ite holy city of Kerbala, 50 miles southwest of Baghdad, police said.

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Use of ‘Sticky IEDs’ Rising in Iraq

An Iraqi soldier and onlookers stand near the charred remnants of a vehicle owned by the Iraqi Defense Ministry. A magnetic bomb placed under the vehicle destroyed it Tuesday morning. (Photo credit: Ernesto Londoño / The Washington Post)

By Ernesto Londoño

October 9, 2008

BAGHDAD — Iraqi insurgents are increasingly using magnetically attached bombs known as “sticky IEDs” to assassinate mid- and low-level Iraqi officials, Iraqi and U.S. officials said.

Rigged with magnets so they will adhere to the undersides of automobiles and detonated by remote control or with timers, the bombs have been used in Iraq sporadically since 2004. This year, U.S. military officials said, they have investigated roughly 200 cases involving magnetic bombs, and Iraqi officials said they have noted an increase in assassination attempts in which attackers use guns equipped with silencers. …

These assassination attempts mark a shift from mass-casualty attacks that triggered a backlash against insurgent groups and militias, U.S. military officials said …

The bombs have been used against Iraqi government officials, particularly those who work in the army and police. Local leaders, judges, journalists and members of U.S.-backed Sunni armed groups have also been attacked. …

Read the full report at the Washington Post