Psychology, Politics, and National Security
Loading

Featured Posts        



categories        



Links        



archives        



meta        




May 26th, 2016




ST. JOHN’S UNIVERSITY MEN’S BASKETBALL TEAM

2016_ SJU-European-tour_Team-USA

2016 EUROPEAN TOUR ITINERARY

DAY 1 (May 13) — MINNEAPOLIS-ST. PAUL / ZURICH, SWITZERLAND

Depart Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport for Zurich, Switzerland via Reykjavik, Iceland

2016-05-13_Departure-MSP
Click on image for larger view

DAY 2 (May 14) — ARRIVE ZURICH

2016-05-14_Arrival-Zurich
Click on image for larger view

Upon arrival, transfer by motor coach to Zurich
Orientation tour of Zurich and surrounding area
Check-in at Ramada Hotel Zurich City

2016-05-14_Zurich_Peterson-Immelman
Jordan Peterson and Tim Immelman in Zurich

DAY 3 (May 15) — LUCERNE / LUGANO / COMO AREA

Morning excursion to Lucerne

2016-05-15_SJU-team_Lucerne
Click on image for larger view

2016-05-15_Lucerne_Immelman-Weiss 2016-05-15_Lucerne_Immelman-Sexe
Tim Immelman (left) with Tyler Weiss and Conrad Sexe in Lucerne

Afternoon excursion to Lugano and Lake Como on Switzerland-Italy border

2016-05-15_Lugano_Sexe-Peterson-Immelman
Conrad Sexe, Tim Immelman, and Tyler Weiss in Lugano

Check-in at Hotel Leonardo da Vinci

DAY 4 (May 16) — COMO, ITALY / LUGANO, SWITZERLAND

Guided walking tour of Lake Como

Transfer to Cadempino near Lugano

LOGO_CMYK_ok

Game 1: St. John’s University vs SAM Basket Massagno

2016_Team_SAM-Basket-Massagno-U23
Click on image for larger view

SAM Basket Massagno Facebook

2016-05-16_SAMBasketMassagno-SJU
Click on image for larger view
SAM Basket Massagno 70, St. John’s, 62

2016-05-17_Erba-Bigs
Postgame in Erba: Big men Tim Immelman, Conrad Sexe, Jordan Peterson, Mitch Wollin, Ben Hartmann, and Tyler Weiss with point guard Alex Schmitt (front center)

DAY 5 (May 17) — MILAN, ITALY

Guided tour of Milan

2016-05-17_Milan_Conrad-Tim
Conrad Sexe and Tim Immelman at the Duomo di Milano, a Gothic-Renaissance marble cathedral. (Click on image for larger view)

2016_APL-SJU
Click on image for larger view

Game 2: St. John’s University vs Associazione Pallacanestro Lissone

2016_Team_Associazione-Pallacanestro-Lissone-C-Gold
Click on image for larger view

APL Facebook

2016-05-17_APLCAPLissone-SJU
Click on image for larger view
Galvi Lissone–C Gold 60, St. John’s, 54

DAY 6 (May 18) — FUSSEN / GARMISCH / MUNICH, GERMANY

Transfer by motor coach to Munich
Check-in at Hotel Angelo

DAY 7 (May 19) — MUNICH

2016-05-19_Munich_Olympic-Park
Click on image for larger view

Guided tour of Munich, including Olympic Park, site of the 1972 Olympic Games

2016_Team-logo_MTSV-Schwabing

Game 3: St. John’s University vs MTSV Schwabing

MTSV Schwabing Facebook

St. John’s 68, MTSV Schwabing 63

DAY 8 (May 20) — DACHAU / MUNICH

Excursion to Dachau

2016-05-20_Dachau
Click on image for larger view

DAY 9 (May 21) — MUNICH / USA

Depart Munich International Airport for return flight to the United States

2016-05-21_Departure-Munich 2016-05-21_Arrival-Minneapolis
Departure from Munich and arrival at Minneapolis over Lake Calhoun and Lake of the Isles

———————————————————————

Other basketball reports on this site

Tim Immelman — 2012-13 Basketball Photo Gallery (Oct. 8, 2013)

Tim Immelman — 2011-12 Basketball Photo Gallery (April 22, 2012)

http://www.immelman.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/2012-02-24_Monticello-4-Dana-Fischer.jpg

Matt Immelman — 2014-15 Basketball Photo Gallery (Feb. 28, 2015)



Cruz-Trump-Indiana_Redstate
According to a poll by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics on Friday, April 29, 2016, Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump 45 percent to 29 percent among registered voters. (Redstate.com)

Tuesday’s Republican primary in Indiana is a must-win for Ted Cruz if he is to have any prospect of preventing Donald Trump from reaching the 1,237 delegates required to secure the Republican nomination for president on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention.

The Personal Electability Index (PEI), developed by Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics (USPP), projects that Trump will edge Cruz in the Indiana Republican primary.

The PEI has accurately predicted, before Super Tuesday, the outcome of every presidential election since 1996. The heuristic model employs candidate personality traits, as publicly perceived, to predict which contender will resonate most favorably with independent and unaffiliated voters that base their voting choice primarily on candidates’ personal qualities as publicly displayed rather than on party-political affiliation or allegiance.

The PEI model’s predictive utility in presidential general elections derives from the practically even division of the nation into reliably Republican and Democratic voting blocks, essentially yielding the balance of power to politically independent and unaffiliated voters comprising roughly one-third of the electorate.

Although the PEI is not designed to predict primary election outcomes it appears to have some practical utility in predicting the results of open primaries, where political affiliation is not a requirement for voting in a partisan ballot.

Indiana effectively (i.e., with some unenforceable restrictions) has an open primary, which favors Trump over Cruz (whose appeal is more ideological and more restricted to conservative Republican base voters).

Research on the psychology of politics conducted at the USPP reveals that voters respond favorably to candidates that are outgoing (extraverted), self-confident (productively narcissistic), and dominant; and negatively to candidates that are introverted and overly conscientious.

Based on those criteria, the Republican contenders on Indiana’s primary ballot rank as follows:

  1. Donald Trump (PEI = 62; 45 corrected score)
  2. Ted Cruz (PEI = 25)
  3. John Kasich (PEI = 14)

————————————————————————————

Detailed Personal Electability Index scores

Donald Trump: PEI = 45 (dysfunctionality adjusted)

Trump poster (NCUR)
Click on image for larger view

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  15     11  15  15    1      0      6     2    1     0

Scale: 1A = 15; 2 = 15; 3 =15; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 15] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 45 – 0 = 45

Ted Cruz: PEI = 25

Ted Cruz poster 2015-09
Click on image for larger view

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  13      6     8    4    0      0      4     2    0    0

Scale: 1A = 13; 2 = 8; 3 = 4; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 4] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 8] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 13] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2) = 0] = 25 – 0 = 25

John Kasich: PEI = 14

Poster - John Kasich 2016
Click on image for larger view

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:    7      3     4    3    5       1      3     2    0    0

Scale: 1A = 7; 2 = 4; 3 = 3; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2) = 0] = 14 – 0 = 14

—————————————

May 3, 2016 Update

Cruz: Trump ‘is a pathological liar’


Video: Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz had harsh words for rival Donald Trump ahead of the Indiana primary. (Duration: 4:28)

By David Wright and Julia Manchester
http://zignallabs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/cnn-politics-logo.png
May 3, 2016

Ted Cruz on Tuesday unloaded on Donald Trump, accusing him during a news conference of being a “pathological liar,” “utterly amoral,” “a narcissist at a level I don’t think this country’s ever seen” and “a serial philanderer.”

“He is proud of being a serial philanderer … he describes his own battles with venereal diseases as his own personal Vietnam,” Cruz said, citing a decades-old Trump appearance on “The Howard Stern Show.”

The Texas senator’s dramatic and deeply personal attack on Trump comes as polls indicate Trump is poised to claim victory in Cruz’s must-win state of Indiana and follow accusations the front-runner made about Cruz’s father.

The epic takedown of his opponent on an all-important voting day was extraordinary even by the standards of the 2016 campaign.

“This man is a pathological liar, he doesn’t know the difference between truth and lies … in a pattern that is straight out of a psychology textbook, he accuses everyone of lying,” Cruz said as Indiana voters headed to cast their ballots.

“Whatever lie he’s telling, at that minute he believes it … the man is utterly immoral,” Cruz told reporters. “Donald is a bully … bullies don’t come from strength they come from weakness.”

Earlier Tuesday, Trump had criticized Rafael Cruz, calling him “disgraceful” after he urged evangelical voters in Indiana to reject his son’s rival.

Trump also referenced a report from the tabloid National Enquirer — without naming the publication — which alleged that it had identified Rafael Cruz in a photo with Lee Harvey Oswald months prior to the JFK assassination. CNN has not independently confirmed that report. …

Full report

—————————————

May 4, 2016 Update

Indiana-GOP-primary-results

Graphic: The New York Times

Ted Cruz Suspends 2016 Presidential Campaign After Indiana Loss

John Kasich Suspends 2016 Presidential Campaign

——————————————————————————————————————————

Related reports on this site

Trump-Cruz-Kasich_Greg-Nash_via-The-Hill

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Ted Cruz

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate John Kasich

Projecting the Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election: The Personal Electability Index



A psychological analysis of Vermont senator Bernie Sanders — a contender for the Democratic nomination in the 2016 presidential election — by Catherine Lundstrom, Hanae Nakamoto, Jacob Wankel, Christian Grande, Joe Trenzeluk, Atarah Pinder, and Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics, revealed that Sanders’s primary personality patterns are Dominant/controlling and Contentious/resolute, with secondary Ambitious/confident features. In summary, Sanders’s personality composite can be characterized as a deliberative nonconformist. (Note: This is a pilot study with a lower confidence level than comparable studies of Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, and Ted Cruz.)

Poster - Bernie Sanders 2016
Click on image for larger view

Analysis

Preliminary analysis of Bernie Sanders’s psychological profile — based on the finding of substantial social dominance (MIDC scale 1A = 13), augmented by considerable contentiousness (MIDC scale 5B = 8) and bolstered by a healthy dose of self-confidence, or adaptive narcissism (MIDC scale 2 = 6) — suggests that Sanders will be tenacious in his quest for the Democratic nomination for president.

The big takeaway from the profile is the inference that Sanders will resist calls to drop out of the race and rally his supporters behind front-runner Hillary Clinton, even after it becomes clear that he has no path to winning the required number of delegates for the nomination. In short, it seems likely that Sanders, with his resolute, oppositional tendency will hound Clinton all the way to the Democratic National Convention with dogged determination.

Update

Sanders: ‘The convention will be a contested contest’ (Rebecca Savransky, The Hill, May 1, 2016) — Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders on Sunday said there will be a “contested contest.” In a news conference from Washington, D.C., on Sunday, the Vermont senator urged superdelegates from states where he has won the majority of the vote to reconsider their support. … “We intend to fight for every vote in front of us and for every delegate remaining,” he said. … Full report

———————————————————————————————————

Note: Personal Electability Index (favorability) score

Bernie Sanders scores relatively low on the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria-based Personal Electability Index, which has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996.

Following are the PEI calculations for Bernie Sanders:

Bernie Sanders: PEI = 18

Scale:  1A   1B   2   3   4   5A   5B   6   7   8
Score: 13     5    6   3   5     0      8    3   0   4

Scale: 1A = 13; 2 = 6; 3 = 3; 6 = 3; 8 = 4

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 6] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 13] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 4] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (4 - 4) = 0] = 22 – 4 = 18

Following are the PEI calculations for Sanders’s rivals:

John Kasich: PEI = 14

Scale:  1A   1B   2   3   4   5A   5B   6   7   8
Score:  7      3    4   3   5     1      3    2   0   0

Scale: 1A = 7; 2 = 4; 3 = 3; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2) = 0] = 14 – 0 = 14

Ted Cruz: PEI = 25

Scale:  1A   1B   2   3   4   5A   5B   6   7   8
Score: 13     6    8   4   0    0      4    2   0   0

Scale: 1A = 13; 2 = 8; 3 = 4; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 4] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 8] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 13] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2) = 0] = 25 – 0 = 25

Hillary Clinton: PEI = 29 (dysfunctionality adjusted)

Scale:  1A   1B   2   3   4   5A   5B   6   7   8
Score: 15     2  15   1   0     0      0    6   0  0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 1] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (6 - 4)  = 2] = 31 – 2 = 29

Donald Trump: PEI = 45 (dysfunctionality adjusted)

Scale:  1A   1B   2   3   4   5A   5B   6   7   8
Score: 19   11  24 19  1     0      6    2   1   0

Scale: 1A = 19; 2 = 24; 3 =19; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 15] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 45 – 0 = 45

————————————

4/22/2016 Update

Catherine Lundstrom (left) and Christian Grande (right) presented “The Political Personality of 2016 Presidential Contender Bernie Sanders” (by Catherine Lundstrom, Hanae Nakamoto, Jacob Wankel, Christian Grande, Joe Trenzeluk, and Atarah Pinder) at Scholarship and Creativity Day, College of St. Benedict and St. John’s University, April 21, 2016.

——————————————————

Related reports on this site

Projecting the Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election: The Personal Electability Index (Feb. 29, 2016)

Donald-Trump_Hillary-Clinton_Getty-Images
Getty Images

The Personality Profile of 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton (March 11, 2015)

Clinton poster
Click on image for larger view



A psychological analysis of Ohio governor John Kasich — a contender for the Republican nomination in the 2016 presidential election — by Timothy Immelman, Katherine Jennissen, Brianna Kupser, Jeremy Reller, Samantha Womeldorf, Joe Trenzeluk, and Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics, revealed that Kasich’s primary personality patterns are Dominant/asserting and Accommodating/cooperative, with secondary Ambitious/confident and Outgoing/congenial features. In summary, Kasich’s personality composite can be characterized as a forceful mediator. (Note: This is a pilot study with a lower confidence level than comparable studies of Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Hillary Clinton.)

Poster - John Kasich 2016
Click on image for larger view

———————————————————————————————————

Note: Personal Electability Index (favorability) score

John Kasich scores relatively low on the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria-based Personal Electability Index, which has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996.

Following are the PEI calculations for John Kasich:

John Kasich: PEI = 14

Scale:  1A   1B   2   3   4   5A   5B   6   7   8
Score:  7      3    4   3   5     1      3    2   0   0

Scale: 1A = 7; 2 = 4; 3 = 3; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2) = 0] = 14 – 0 = 14

Following are the PEI calculations for Kasich’s rivals:

Bernie Sanders: PEI = 18

Scale:  1A   1B   2   3   4   5A   5B   6   7   8
Score: 13     5    6   3   5     0      8    3   0   4

Scale: 1A = 13; 2 = 6; 3 = 3; 6 = 3; 8 = 4

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 6] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 13] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 4] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (4 - 4) = 0] = 22 – 4 = 18

Ted Cruz: PEI = 25

Scale:  1A   1B   2   3   4   5A   5B   6   7   8
Score: 13     6    8   4   0    0      4    2   0   0

Scale: 1A = 13; 2 = 8; 3 = 4; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 4] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 8] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 13] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2) = 0] = 25 – 0 = 25

Hillary Clinton: PEI = 29 (dysfunctionality adjusted)

Scale:  1A   1B   2   3   4   5A   5B   6   7   8
Score: 15     2  15   1   0     0      0    6   0  0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 1] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (6 - 4)  = 2] = 31 – 2 = 29

Donald Trump: PEI = 45 (dysfunctionality adjusted)

Scale:  1A   1B   2   3   4   5A   5B   6   7   8
Score: 19   11  24 19  1     0      6    2   1   0

Scale: 1A = 19; 2 = 24; 3 =19; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 15] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 45 – 0 = 45

————————————

4/22/2016 Update

2016-S&CD_Immelman&Immelman
Research director Aubrey Immelman (left) with Tim Immelman (right), who presented “The Political Personality of 2016 Presidential Contender John Kasich” (by Timothy Immelman, Katherine Jennissen, Brianna Kupser, Jeremy Reller, Samantha Womeldorf, and Joe Trenzeluk) at Scholarship and Creativity Day, College of St. Benedict and St. John’s University, April 21, 2016. (Click photo for full-size image)

——————————————————

Related reports on this site

Projecting the Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election: The Personal Electability Index (Feb. 29, 2016)

Donald-Trump_Hillary-Clinton_Getty-Images
Getty Images

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Ted Cruz (Sept. 6, 2015)

Ted Cruz poster 2015-09
Click on image for larger view

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump (Aug. 9, 2015)

Trump poster (July 2015)
Click on image for larger view

Comparative Psychological Profiles of the GOP Field (Aug. 6, 2015)

Fox News candidates on stage

Republican Presidential Candidate Profiles, Polling, and Debates
(May 31, 2015)



Republican presidential contenders (from left to right and top to bottom) Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Rick Santorum (Photo credits: Gage Skidmore, officeholder official portraits / Wikipedia)



As reported by CNN Politics: Nightcap on March 23, 2016:

First it was Lindsey Graham. Then Mitt Romney. Now, Jeb Bush is getting on the Ted Cruz train. Despite anger among Senate Republicans over his past tactics, some members of the GOP establishment are coming around to the Texas senator’s candidacy — out of pragmatism if not enthusiasm.

The big thought: Cruz might struggle in a general election, but at least he’s reliably conservative and, win or lose, wouldn’t doom the party’s chances of holding the House and Senate and undercut many of its deeply held policy objectives. …

The next big contest in the Republican race is April 5 in Wisconsin. Gov. Scott Walker — who still maintains influence in his home state despite a short-lived presidential bid — hinted Wednesday morning in a radio interview on WTMJ that he could endorse Ted Cruz.

Sidebar » Trump responds to flurry of Cruz endorsements

Following is a compilation of the conga-line of high-profile Republican establishment figures jumping on the Cruz bandwagon.

————————————————————————

Jeb Bush Backs Ted Cruz for President


Fox News video added — Not part of CNN report

By Mark Preston and Theodore Schleifer
http://zignallabs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/cnn-politics-logo.png
March 23, 2016

Jeb Bush [link added] endorsed Ted Cruz on Wednesday morning, calling his former rival for the Republican presidential nomination a “principled conservative” and urging fellow Republicans to reject Donald Trump as the next GOP nominee.

“Ted is a consistent, principled conservative who has demonstrated the ability to appeal to voters and win primary contests,” Bush said in a statement provided to CNN. “Washington is broken, and the only way Republicans can hope to win back the White House and put our nation on a better path is to support a nominee who can articulate how conservative policies will help people rise up and reach their full potential.”

Bush’s endorsement of the Texas senator comes one month after he ended his own bid for the GOP presidential nomination — a campaign that failed to gain support in the shadow of Trump’s oversized personality and a fractured field that, at one time, had 17 Republican candidates actively pursuing the White House. During the campaign, Bush did not cloak his contempt for Trump, who he described as a “bully” and “not a conservative.”

On Wednesday, Bush again emphasized his disapproval of Trump, the GOP front-runner, and warned that if the New York businessman secures the Republican nomination, Democrats will win the White House in November.

“For the sake of our party and country, we must move to overcome the divisiveness and vulgarity Donald Trump has brought into the political arena, or we will certainly lose our chance to defeat the Democratic nominee and reverse President Obama’s failed policies,” Bush said in the statement.

Trump responded Wednesday afternoon, using Twitter to dismiss the endorsement to dismiss the Bush endorsement.

“I think having Jeb’s endorsement hurts Lyin’ Ted. Jeb spent more than $150,000,000 and got nothing. I spent a fraction of that and am first,” Trump tweeted. …

Read the full report at CNN

Related » Why Donald Trump Beats Jeb Bush: The Personal Electability Index

Bush poster (July 2015)
Click on image for larger view

——————————————————————————————

Mitt Romney Just Basically Endorsed Ted Cruz

By Aaron Blake
The Fix

March 18, 2016

Mitt Romney [link added] just endorsed Ted Cruz for president of the United States, over Donald Trump [link added] and John Kasich [link added].

No, Romney [link added] didn’t put it in so many words. The “e-word” was not uttered in his brief Friday-afternoon Facebook post, and Romney doesn’t say he wants Cruz to be president. But the practical effect is the same.

Here’s the full post:

This week, in the Utah nominating caucus, I will vote for Senator Ted Cruz.

Today, there is a contest between Trumpism and Republicanism. Through the calculated statements of its leader, Trumpism has become associated with racism, misogyny, bigotry, xenophobia, vulgarity and, most recently, threats and violence. I am repulsed by each and every one of these.

The only path that remains to nominate a Republican rather than Mr. Trump is to have an open convention. At this stage, the only way we can reach an open convention is for Senator Cruz to be successful in as many of the remaining nominating elections as possible.

I like Governor John Kasich. I have campaigned with him. He has a solid record as governor. I would have voted for him in Ohio. But a vote for Governor Kasich in future contests makes it extremely likely that Trumpism would prevail.

I will vote for Senator Cruz and I encourage others to do so as well, so that we can have an open convention and nominate a Republican.

So the logic here is simple: Vote for Cruz because he’s the only guy who can actually steal delegates from Trump and prevent him from winning before the Republican National Convention. At which point, who knows? Romney only says that the GOP would “nominate a Republican” — not saying whether that Republican is Cruz.

But here’s what’s amazing about all of this: Romney [link added] is just the latest big-name, establishment Republican to come out in support of Cruz — to one degree or another — in recent days. Lindsey Graham also did it. Even Sen. Marco Rubio [link added] of Florida seemed to suggest Cruz is the best option, saying he’s the “only conservative left.”

These are not full-throated endorsements. These guys would clearly like to have someone more in the mold of Romney or Rubio as the Republican presidential nominee in 2016.

Still, the fact that they are lining up behind Cruz is remarkable. … Cruz is, after all, the guy who is reputed to be despised by the vast majority of his Senate colleagues — Republican and Democrat. …

It’s hard to overstate how universally unloved Cruz is inside the Republican establishment. And yet, here we are, with decidedly establishment Republicans lining up in his corner. …

Read the full report at The Fix

Related » Why Mitt Romney Won’t Win


Click on image for larger view

——————————————————————————————————————————

Watch Lindsey Graham Go from Hating to Stumping for Ted Cruz


MSNBC video added — Not part of CNN report
Graham: The GOP will probably lose in 2016 (March 24, 2016) — Former 2016 Republican candidate Lindsey Graham joins Morning Joe to discuss why he is now supporting Ted Cruz after coming out strongly against him on the campaign trail, why he thinks the GOP will likely lose in 2016, and why Kasich is the best nominee but has ‘no chance.’ (Duration 10:12)

By Chris Moody
http://zignallabs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/cnn-politics-logo.png
March 18, 2016

It’s that strange time again in American politics when politicians support candidates they have repeatedly said they can’t stand.

For months, South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has been warning the nation about Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. But on Thursday, Graham told CNN that not only is he supporting Cruz, he’s fundraising for him. Graham pointed to Donald Trump’s rise as the reason, explaining that Cruz might be the only one to stop him.

“I think he’s the best alternative to beat Donald Trump,” Graham told CNN. “I’m going to help Ted in any way I can.”

It’s a strange position for Graham, who has said all kinds of terrible things about Cruz.

Let’s take a trip down memory lane. …

Read the full report at CNN

——————————————————————————————————

Ex-Rival Fiorina Endorses Cruz, ‘Horrified’ by Trump

By Dana Bash and David Wright
http://zignallabs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/cnn-politics-logo.png
January 25, 2016

Former Republican presidential candidate and businesswoman Carly Fiorina [link added] endorsed Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at a rally in Miami Wednesday, and confessed to being “horrified” by front-runner Donald Trump. …

The surprise endorsement comes as Cruz tries to consolidate GOP support and challenge front-runner businessman Donald Trump for the Republican nomination. …

Read the full report at CNN

———————————————————

Rick Perry Endorses Ted Cruz

By Dana Bash and David Wright
http://zignallabs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/cnn-politics-logo.png
January 25, 2016

Former Republican presidential candidate and Texas Gov. Rick Perry is endorsing Ted Cruz for president — and his disdain for Donald Trump appears to have been a driving force.

Perry has come to “hate” Trump more than anything, according to a source familiar with the endorsement process. …

Perry and Cruz have mostly operated in separate orbits in Texas politics. Perry, then governor, endorsed Cruz’s opponent in his bitter 2012 Senate primary, David Dewhurst, and since then Perry has repeatedly spoken out against the perils of electing a first-term senator as president. …

Conservative media star Glenn Beck [link added] also announced he is endorsing Cruz, while a number of Republican establishment figures, including former GOP presidential nominee Bob Dole [link added], have publicly attacked Cruz. …

Read the full report at CNN

Related » The Personality Profile of 2016 Presidential Candidate Rick Perry

Rick Perry poster 2015-04
Click on image for larger view

——————————————————

Related reports on this site

Projecting the Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election:
The Personal Electability Index
(Feb. 29, 2016)

Donald-Trump_Hillary-Clinton_Getty-Images
Getty Images

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Ted Cruz (Sept. 6, 2015)

Ted Cruz poster 2015-09
Click on image for larger view

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Scott Walker (July 26, 2015)

Walker poster (July 2015)
Click on image for larger view

The Personality Profile of 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney (June 2, 2011)


Research assistants Amanda Nusbaum and Feiran Chen presented their summer research project on “The Personality Profile of 2012 Republican Presidential Candidate Mitt Romney” at the College of St. Benedict in St. Joseph, Minn. 


Click on image for larger display



The 2016 Minnesota State High School League boys’ basketball state tournament takes place this week, March 9-12. Games will be played at Minneapolis’ Target Center, Williams Arena at the University of Minnesota, and the Gangelhoff Center at Concordia University in St. Paul.

2016_Basketball-State-Tournament

In Class AAA, Section 5-3A winner Monticello (no. 5 seed) plays Section 7-3A winner Chisago Lakes (no. 4 seed) at the University of Minnesota’s Williams Arena in the quarterfinals at noon on Wednesday, March 9, 2016. The Magic and the Wildcats both play in the Mississippi 8 Conference.

Here’s video of the Monticello Magic playing the Sartell Sabres in the Granite City Holiday Classic on December 29, 2015.

Monticello went on to beat the Rocori Spartans for the Section 5-3A title on March 3, 2016 at St. Cloud State University’s Halenbeck Hall to earn a berth in the Minnesota boys’ basketball state tournament.

———————————

3/10/2016 Update: No. 5 Monticello defeated no. 4 Chisago Lakes 60-55 in the quarterfinals. The Magic play no. 1 seed Minneapolis DeLaSalle at noon Thursday, March 10, in the Class AAA semifinals at the Target Center. The Islanders beat the unseeded Fridley Tigers 65-52 to advance.

3/11/2016 Update: No. 1 Minneapolis DeLaSalle defeated no. 5 Monticello 59-45 in the semifinals. The Islanders play no. 3 seed Fergus Falls at 5 p.m. Saturday, March 12, in the Class AAA final at the Target Center. The Otters beat no. 2 seed Red Wing to advance. The Wingers play the Monticello Magic at 1:30 p.m. Saturday, March 12, in the Class AAA third-place consolation game at Concordia University-St. Paul’s Gangelhoff Center.

———————————

Also in Class AAA, Section 8-3A winner Fergus Falls plays Section 2-3A winner Waseca at the University of Minnesota’s Williams Arena in the quarterfinals at 4 p.m. on Wednesday, March 9, 2016. The Otters play in the Central Lakes Conference and the Bluejays play in the Big South Conference.

Here’s video of the Fergus Falls Otters playing the Sartell Sabres in a Central Lakes Conference matchup on December 1, 2015.

Fergus Falls beat the Alexandria Cardinals 63-60 for the Section 8-3A title on March 3, 2016 at Minnesota State University-Moorhead to earn a berth in the Minnesota boys’ basketball state tournament. Waseca beat the Marshall Tigers 103-100 in a 4-OT thriller March 3 to advance to the state tournament.

———————————

3/10/2016 Update: No. 3 Fergus Falls defeated unseeded Waseca 70-63 in the quarterfinals. The Otters play no. 2 seed Red Wing at 2 p.m. Thursday, March 10, in the Class AAA semifinals at the Target Center. The Wingers beat the unseeded Simley Spartans 73-51 to advance.

3/11/2016 Update: No. 3 Fergus Falls defeated no. 2 Red Wing 58-55 in the semifinals. The Otters play no. 1 seed Minneapolis DeLaSalle at 5 p.m. Saturday, March 12, in the Class AAA final at the Target Center. The Islanders beat no. 5 seed Monticello to advance. The Magic play the Wingers at 1:30 p.m. Saturday, March 12, in the Class AAA third-place consolation game at Concordia University-St. Paul’s Gangelhoff Center.

3/12/2016 Update: No. 1 Minneapolis DeLaSalle defeated no. 3 Fergus Falls in the Class AAA championship game at the Target Center. No. 5 Monticello lost 75-59 to no. 2 Red Wing in the third-place consolation game at Concordia University-St. Paul’s Gangelhoff Center.

———————————————————

Final Update: March 13, 2016

In Class AAAA, Hopkins beat Lakeville North 64-55 in the state tournament championship game on Sat. March 12 at the Target Center. The Hopkins Royals beat Robbinsdale Cooper 87-82 on Wed. March 2 for the Section 6-4A championship and defeated Section 4-4A winner North St. Paul (74-42) and Section 3-4A winner Apple Valley (84-59) to advance to the Class AAAA final.

To advance to the championship game, Lakeville North beat Osseo 60-56 in the semifinals and Maple Grove 60-47 in the quarterfinals.

Maple Grove advanced to the state tournament by beating Elk River 69-46 March 3 in the Section 8-4A title game at St. Michael-Albertville after defeating Rogers 74-61 Feb. 27 in the semifinals at St. Cloud State University.

Here’s video of the Rogers Royals playing the Sartell Sabres at the Granite City Holiday Classic on Dec. 30, 2015.

The Rogers Royals went on to beat St. Cloud Tech 74-67 on Tues. Feb. 23 in the Section 8-4A quarterfinals at Rogers before losing to Maple Grove in the semifinals and failing to advance to the state tournament.

——————————————————

Related interest on this site

Tim Immelman — 2012-13 Basketball Photo Gallery


Tim Immelman (#41) scores over Reid Travis (#22) in the Class 3A quarterfinal game Wednesday, March 20, 2013 at the University of Minnesota’s Williams Arena in Minneapolis.

Matt Immelman — 2014-15 Basketball Photo Gallery


Matt Immelman (#22) scored 31 points for Minnesota Comets 17U Gray at the Great Plains Alliance AAU Boys’ Basketball Tournament in Sauk Rapids-St. Cloud on June 26, 2015 — shooting 14 of 16 (one 3-pointer) from the field (87.5%) and going 2 for 2 on free throws.



MSNBC “Morning Joe” is the only major television talk show to have predicted Donald Trump’s viability as a presidential candidate from the outset. This video compilation provides a retrospective of hosts Joe Scarborough, Mika Brzezinski, and Willie Geist’s commentary on “Morning Joe,” starting with Trump’s announcement of his bid for the Republican nomination on June 16, 2015.

“Morning Joe” predicted Trump’s chances from Day 1 (March 2, 2016) — Donald Trump announced his bid for the White House on June 16th. Here’s a look-back at Morning Joe’s analysis of Trump’s chances from day one. (Duration 3:26)

——————————

Related interest

Some of the Absolute Worst Predictions of the 2016 Race So Far

By Katherine Krueger
Talking Points Memo
February 10, 2016

Excerpts

Here are just a few of the worst 2016 predictions that pundits and journalists have made so far this election cycle. …

That Trump would flame out early

Conservative pundit Bill Kristol, who has a long, hackish history of being patently wrong, took on new relevance in 2016 as a reliable engine for pumping out fantastically bad predictions about Donald Trump and the Republican race. …

After the first Republican presidential debate in August, Fox News contributor Charles Krauthammer said Trump was clearly “out of place” and his opponents “left him out in the cold.”

The Huffington Post infamously announced plans last summer to cover Trump only in its entertainment vertical, calling the billionaire’s campaign “a sideshow.” They torpedoed the stunt only after months of Trump polling at the front of the GOP pack, but the Republican frontrunner still draws the site’s ire. HuffPost splashed the oversized headline “NH GOES RACIST SEXIST XENOPHOBIC” across its front page after Trump won the New Hampshire primary.

Ezra Klein, the politics wunderkind and founder of Vox Media, is still on board with Trump losing, and compared his candidacy to Howard Dean’s failed 2004 run: “Trump could just … not win.”

Chris Cillizza, editor of The Fix politics blog at The Washington Post, jumped on the Trump-as-gag-candidate bandwagon early. In a February 2015 piece with the already-back-pedaling headline “Donald Trump might be serious about running for president. He’s still irrelevant,” Cillizza declared: “So, let’s assume – gulp – that Trump is serious this time around. Heck, while we’re at it, let’s assume he actually runs. IT. DOESN’T. MATTER.” …

Jeb! will be the GOP nominee. Period.

It’s difficult to know where to start with the legions of pundits who trafficked in the prevailing wisdom that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush would dominate the GOP field and enjoy smooth sailing en route to the party’s nomination. …

Read more at TPM

————————————————————

Donald Trump’s Chicago Scam

By Joe Scarborough

March 13, 2016

Excerpts

We are grimly warning the world that following Friday night’s fracas in Chicago, America faces a deepening divide that is tearing away at the fabric of this great land.

What mind-numbing nonsense.

Friday’s freak show was as prepackaged as a rerun of “The Celebrity Apprentice.” The only difference was that Donald Trump delivered his lines on the phone from a hotel room in the Windy City instead of on the set of his made-for-TV boardroom.

It was all a scam.

Has anyone noticed that Trump’s campaign now regularly stages media events designed to eclipse any negative coverage that predictably follows Republican debates? …

As has been the case throughout the entire 2016 cycle, Trump thrives on the political chaos that he helps creates. If it is true that opportunity and chaos are the same word in Mandarin, Trump should stamp that word on a poster and sell it at his next scheduled event. For the Manhattan billionaire, manufactured chaos is just as profitable for his brand as Paris Hilton’s sex tape was for hers. …

Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio’s brief appearances on TV during the rolling cable news coverage only made their own candidacies seem smaller under the glare of Donald’s Big Tent Show. …

Friday night’s farce was a made-for-television event with a handful of Trump supporters squaring off against protesters offended by Trump’s presence on their campus.

Unfortunately for his opponents, most of the protesters who appeared on camera during the night shouted profanities at cameras, intimidated others being interviewed by networks and played directly into the Republican front-runner’s hands. …

Trump wants to be the next president of the United States. But that will never happen unless the man who is about to lock down the GOP nomination drops his reality-show routine, starts working on uniting his party and gets serious about the daunting task before him. …

Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman from Florida, hosts the MSNBC show “Morning Joe.”

Full story

———————————

4/9/2016 Update

Defying expectations, Trump heads into primary (April 19, 2016) — Donald Trump heads into the New York primary with a strong lead despite conventional wisdom saying he wouldn’t make it to the convention. (Duration 7:59)

“This time it really is the end of Trump. Really.”
— E. J. Dionne Jr., Washington Post, April 3, 2016

“The voters have spoken. Never Trump.”
— Dana Milbank, Washington Post, April 6, 2016

“Donald Trump, losing ground.”
— New York Times front page, April 13, 2016

—————————————————

Related reports on this site

Projecting the Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election: The Personal Electability Index (Feb. 29, 2016)

Donald-Trump_Hillary-Clinton_Getty-Images
Getty Images

Why Donald Trump Beats Jeb Bush: The Personal Electability Index (Aug. 23, 2015)

Trump-Bush_2015-08-06_Getty-SCT
Photo credit: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images



Research conducted at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics under the direction of Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., is projecting the winner of the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

The Personal Electability Index (PEI) developed at the unit projects that Hillary Clinton, if she wins the Democratic nomination for president, will defeat any Republican candidate with the exception of Donald Trump. If Trump wins the Republican nomination, he is projected to defeat Clinton.

The PEI has accurately predicted, before Super Tuesday, the outcome of every presidential election since 1996.

The PEI heuristic model employs candidate personality traits, as publicly perceived, to predict which contender will resonate most favorably with independent and unaffiliated voters who base their voting choice primarily on the candidate’s personal qualities as publicly displayed rather than on party-political affiliation or allegiance.

The PEI model’s predictive utility in recent presidential election cycles appears to derive from the practically even division of the nation into reliably Republican and Democratic voting blocks, essentially yielding the balance of power to politically independent and unaffiliated voters comprising as much as one-third of the electorate.

Research on the psychology of politics conducted at the USPP reveals that voters respond favorably to candidates that are outgoing (extraverted), self-confident (productively narcissistic), and dominant; and negatively to candidates that are introverted and overly conscientious.

Based on those criteria, candidates studied during the 2016 presidential cycle rank as follows:

  1. Donald Trump (PEI = 62; 45 corrected score)
  2. Hillary Clinton (PEI = 39; 29 corrected score)
  3. Chris Christie (PEI = 27)
  4. Mike Huckabee (PEI = 27)
  5. Ted Cruz (PEI = 25)
  6. Bernie Sanders (PEI = 18)
  7. Marco Rubio (PEI = 15)
  8. John Kasich (PEI = 14)
  9. Rick Santorum (PEI = 14)
  10. Ben Carson (PEI = 13)
  11. Scott Walker (PEI = 8)
  12. Jeb Bush (PEI = -3)

This election cycle’s projection is issued with the caveat that the predictive validity of the PEI heuristic model is complicated by the unconventional nature of the Trump candidacy, which has defied conventional models of election-outcome forecasting. Specifically, leaders with Trump’s charismatic profile are prone to self-defeating overreach, which raises doubt about Trump’s ability to sustain his popular support through the primaries and the general election campaign.

————————————————————————————

Detailed Personal Electability Index scores

Following are the scores of candidates studied during the 2016 presidential election cycle on the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria-based Personal Electability Index, which has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996. [Updated April 23, 2016]

Donald Trump: PEI = 62

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  19    11   24  19   1      0      6      2    1    0

Scale: 1A = 19; 2 = 24; 3 =19; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 19] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 24] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 19] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 62 – 0 = 62

Donald Trump: PEI = 45 (dysfunctionality adjusted)

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  15     11  15  15    1      0      6     2    1     0

Scale: 1A = 15; 2 = 15; 3 =15; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 15] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 45 – 0 = 45

Hillary Clinton: PEI = 39 (Study 2; updated)

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  19      2    21   1    0      0      0     6    0    0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 1] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 21] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 19] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (6 - 4) = 2] = 41 – 2 = 39

Hillary Clinton: PEI = 29 (dysfunctionality adjusted)

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  15      2   15    1    0      0      0     6    0    0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 1] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (6 - 4)  = 2] = 31 – 2 = 29

Hillary Clinton: PEI = 23 (Study 1; 2008)

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  15      4   15    2    1      0      9    11   0     2

Clinton: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 2] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (11 - 4) = 7] = 32 – 9 = 23

Chris Christie: PEI = 27

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  14      6     9    4    0     0       4     2    0    0

Scale: 1A = 14; 2 = 9; 3 = 4; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 4] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 9] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 14] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2) = 0] = 27 – 0 = 27

Mike Huckabee: PEI = 27

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  12      5     8    7    4      1      3      2    0    0

Scale: 1A = 12; 2 = 8; 3 = 7; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 7] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 8] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 12] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 27 – 0 = 27

Ted Cruz: PEI = 25

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  13      6     8    4    0      0      4     2    0    0

Scale: 1A = 13; 2 = 8; 3 = 4; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 4] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 8] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 13] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2) = 0] = 25 – 0 = 25

Bernie Sanders: PEI = 18

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  13      5     6    3    5       0      8     3    0   4

Scale: 1A = 13; 2 = 6; 3 = 3; 6 = 3; 8 = 4

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 6] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 13] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 4] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (4 - 4) = 0] = 22 – 4 = 18

Marco Rubio: PEI = 15

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:    3      2     7    6    4       1      1      5    0   0

Scale: 1A = 3; 2 = 7; 3 = 6; 6 = 5; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 6] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 7] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 3] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (5 - 4) = 1] = 16 – 1 = 15

John Kasich: PEI = 14

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:    7      3     4    3    5       1      3     2    0    0

Scale: 1A = 7; 2 = 4; 3 = 3; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2) = 0] = 14 – 0 = 14

Rick Santorum: PEI = 14

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  11      2    10   3    3      0      0   14    0    0

Scale: 1A = 11; 2 = 10; 3 = 3; 6 = 14; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 10] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (14 – 4) = 10] = 24 – 10 = 14

Ben Carson: PEI = 13

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:    8      4     7    2    2      0       2     7    2    1

Scale: 1A = 8; 2 = 7; 3 = 2; 6 = 7; 8 = 1

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 7] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 8] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 1] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (7 - 4) = 3] = 17 – 4 = 13

Scott Walker: PEI = 8

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  10      2     5    2    3      3      2    12    1    1

Scale: 1A = 10; 2 = 5; 3 = 2; 6 = 12; 8 = 1

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 10] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 1] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (12 - 4) = 8] = 17 – 9 = 8

Jeb Bush: PEI = -3

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:    9      3     8    1     5      1       5    15   4  10

Scale: 1A = 9; 2 = 8; 3 = 1; 6 = 15; 8 = 10

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 1] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 8] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 9] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 10] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (15 - 4) = 11] = 18 – 21 = (-)3

——————————————————————————————————————————

PEI Scores for Democratic and Republican Nominees, 1996-2012

For historical context, here are the personality-based electability scores for all major-party nominees since 1996, published before Super Tuesday in presidential election years, with the successful candidate listed first:

———————————————————————————

3/1/2016 Super Tuesday Morning Update

According to a CNN/ORC poll released this morning, both Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders would defeat Donald Trump in hypothetical general election matchups. In the poll, Clinton tops Trump 52% to 44% among registered voters, while Sanders beats Trump  55% to 43%.

From the perspective of the political psychology research program at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics, the poll has heuristic value because it permits a direct comparison of the relative stability and predictive utility of public opinion polling versus personality-based election-outcome forecasting as represented by the Personal Electability Index.

———————————

3/2/2016 Update

Donald Trump Overwhelms G.O.P. Rivals from Alabama to Massachusetts

By Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin

March 1, 2016

Excerpts

Donald J. Trump won sweeping victories across the South and in New England on Tuesday, a show of strength in the Republican primary campaign that underscored the breadth of his appeal and helped him begin to amass a wide delegate advantage despite growing resistance to his candidacy among party leaders.

Mr. Trump’s political coalition — with his lopsided victories in Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts and Tennessee, and narrower ones in Arkansas, Vermont and Virginia — appears to have transcended the regional and ideological divisions that have shaped the Republican Party in recent years. …

Full report

——————

Five Points to Watch for in a Clinton v. Trump General Election Showdown

By LaurenFox
Talking Points Memo
March 2, 2016

Excerpts

Like it or not, the Republican Party woke up Wednesday morning to its reality: In the most likely scenario now after Super Tuesday, the party will have to depend on loose cannon, anti-establishment, David Duke-backed Donald Trump to defeat Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton in November. …

Here is what to watch for in a Clinton-Trump showdown this year. …

Full report

——————

In South Carolina, Hillary Clinton Showed How She’ll Run Against Donald Trump

By Ezra Klein
Vox News
February 27, 2016

Excerpts

Up until a few weeks ago, the Clinton campaign didn’t really believe they could be so lucky as to have Trump as the Republican nominee. Marco Rubio has long been the candidate they feared most among Republicans, and the smart money was still that he would win the GOP primary. …

Trump is loathed by the left in a way the other Republicans simply aren’t. …

Trump, however, isn’t simply loathed among Democrats. He’s also disliked by independents, and he’s controversial even among Republicans. Forty-two percent of independents, and 24 percent of Republicans, have a very unfavorable view of Trump. …

Full report

———————————

3/5/2016 Update

Could Populist Wave Send Trump to the White House?

By Annie Linskey
Boston Globe
March 3, 2016

Excerpts

If Donald Trump fights his way to the Republican nomination, there’s evidence showing he could also ride his populist, outsider wave right onto the lawn at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. …

Trump boosters say they can imagine a Ronald Reagan-type scenario that sweeps through the nation on the backs of white working-class voters who either stay home each year or typically trend Democratic. …

The durability of Trump’s appeal has confounded the best Republican minds for six months, and national polls show him within striking distance of Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton.

Strategists warn against underestimating Trump. At the very least, the selection of Trump as the Republican standard bearer could scramble predictions in some traditionally key swing states. …

Full report

———————————

3/15/2016 Update

CSB/SJU Professor Predicts Trump Would Beat Clinton

By
St. Cloud Times
March 1, 2016 (4:35 p.m. CST)

Excerpted

A political psychology professor at the College of St. Benedict/St. John’s University said his research predicts that if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination for president, she will defeat any Republican candidate — except Donald Trump.

Aubrey Immelman, who directs the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics at CSB/SJU, developed a personal electability index to predict likely election winners. Ahead of the Super Tuesday caucuses, Immelman said his model projects that if Trump wins the Republican nomination, he would defeat Clinton.

The index has accurately predicted before Super Tuesday the outcome of every presidential election since 1996. However, Immelman said he’s a lot less certain of its accuracy in this unconventional election. In past years, the frontrunners were all career politicians.

“They played the game according to the rules,” Immelman said. “With Trump, that’s kind of a wild card.”

Immelman [noted that his] prediction is at odds with a CNN/ORC poll released Tuesday, which found that both Clinton and Democratic rival Bernie Sanders would defeat Trump in the general election.

Immelman’s model uses candidates’ perceived personality traits to predict which contender will resonate most favorably with independent voters, who typically base their choice primarily on a candidate’s personal qualities rather than party allegiance. …

One of the most important factors is whether a candidate is extroverted or introverted, Immelman said. Introverted candidates — past examples include Al Gore and Jeb Bush — have more difficulty interacting with people on the campaign trail. …

Trump scored high both on extroversion and dominance. Dominant candidates are perceived as strong leaders, which is important to the American electorate, Immelman said. …

Immelman acknowledges that the election outcome will be swayed by many factors, including how many people, especially new voters, turn out to the polls in November. He said he isn’t sure if he believes Trump could win a general election, but said he feels obligated to report what his model is forecasting. …

Full report

———————————

3/19/2016 Update

The DNC Is About to Coronate Donald Trump

By Musa al-Gharbi
The Huffington Post
March 15, 2016

Excerpts

Donald Trump is going to be the next president of the United States, and he will have the Democratic National Committee to thank for it. …

I know, here people are going to say “Look at the polls! They show Hillary winning against Trump!” But there are three big issues here:

[P]olling more than six months prior to a race is not terribly predictive in general. …

Polls be damned: if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, Donald Trump will win the presidency. …

Full story


Election matchups — 03/21/2016 CNN/ORC Poll via Sanders for President

————————————

3/25/2016 Update

CNN/ORC Poll: Clinton Tops Trump on Presidential Traits

Clinton-Trump_(Photo_Nigel-Parry_CNN)
Nigel Parry / CNN

By Jennifer Agiesta
http://zignallabs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/cnn-politics-logo.png
March 24, 2016

If Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, the respective front-runners in the race for the Democratic and Republican nominations for president, wind up leading their respective parties into the general, voters nationwide think Clinton would most likely win in the November election, according to a new CNN/ORC Poll. …

Overall, 56% say they think Clinton would win a match-up between the two leading candidates in November while 42% say Trump would take it. Democratic voters are more convinced that Clinton would win (87% say she would) than Republicans are about Trump (75% say he would win), and Republican voters who aren’t currently backing Trump are particularly skeptical of his chances. Among that group, 40% say Clinton would win, 57% Trump, vs. 92% of Trump supporters who think he would win in November.

An earlier release from the same survey found Clinton ahead of Trump in a hypothetical general election match-up, 53% to 41% among registered voters. …

Both of the two front-runners — Clinton and Trump — are viewed unfavorably by a majority of registered voters nationwide, with 57% having a negative take on Clinton and 65% on Trump….

Just 34% of adults in the new poll have a positive view of the party, 61% negative. …

More have a positive take on the Democrats, 50% overall, with 45% saying they have an unfavorable view. …

Read the full report at CNN

—————————————————

3/31/2016 Related interest

This Professor Knows Why You Hate Ted Cruz’s Face

Logo
March 30, 2016

Neurologist Richard Cytowic doesn’t watch the presidential candidates’ debate like the rest of us. With his deep knowledge of human neural networks, the George Washington University professor is often engaged in deciphering what lies behind facial expressions, hand movements, and torso twists. …

We asked Cytowic to examine the top players in the 2016 election cycle to explain how humans read a face. …

Read Dr. Cytowic’s analysis at the Washingtonian

———————————

4/4/2016 Update

Electoral Map Is a Reality Check to Donald Trump’s Bid

Trump-favorability_NYT_4-2-2016

By Jonathan Martin and Nate Cohn

April 2, 2016

Excerpts

In recent head-to-head polls with one Democrat whom Mr. Trump may face in the fall, Hillary Clinton, he trails in every key state, including Florida and Ohio, despite her soaring unpopularity ratings with swing voters.

In Democratic-leaning states across the Rust Belt, which Mr. Trump has vowed to return to the Republican column for the first time in nearly 30 years, his deficit is even worse: Mrs. Clinton leads him by double digits in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Mr. Trump is so negatively viewed, polls suggest, that he could turn otherwise safe Republican states, usually political afterthoughts because of their strong conservative tilt, into tight contests. …

But without an extraordinary reversal — or the total collapse of whoever becomes his general-election opponent — Mr. Trump could be hard-pressed to win more than 200 of the 270 electoral votes required to win.

Mr. Trump has become unacceptable, perhaps irreversibly so, to broad swaths of Americans, including large majorities of women, nonwhites, Hispanics, voters under 30 and those with college degrees — the voters who powered President Obama’s two victories and represent the country’s demographic future. …

“There is no precedent for this,” said Neil Newhouse, a veteran Republican pollster. “In the modern polling era, since around World War II, there hasn’t been a more unpopular potential presidential nominee than Donald Trump.” …

Nationally, Mrs. Clinton leads Mr. Trump by about 10 percentage points in most head-to-head polls — the widest margin at this point in a presidential campaign in 16 years.

If Mrs. Clinton somehow loses the Democratic race — unlikely given her delegate advantage — Mr. Trump could fare even worse in a general election against Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who has higher margins than Mrs. Clinton in head-to-head polling against Mr. Trump in most swing states. …

A version of this article appears in print on April 3, 2016, on page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Electoral Map a Reality Check to a Trump Bid.

Read the full report at the New York Times

———————————

4/9/2016 Update

This chart shows just how hard it’s going to be for a Republican to win the White House in 2016 (Chris Cillizza, Washington Post “The Fix,” April 8, 2016) — There are 13 states that have voted for the Republican nominee for president in every election since 1992. Those 13 account for just 102 electoral votes. … Give Donald Trump the 13 states that every GOP nominee since 1992 has won. … And, give him the five states the Republican nominee has claimed in five of the last six elections. And the seven states that have voted for the Republican nominee four times since 1992. Add them all up and you get 219 electoral votes. That means Trump … needs 51 more electoral votes to win. Give Trump Colorado, Florida and Nevada — three of the four swingiest states over the past six presidential races — and he still only gets to 263 [of the 270] electoral votes [needed to win]. … Full report

Presidential-voting
Click on Cook Political Report image for larger display

——————————————————————————————————————————

RCP-Avg_03-06-2016
Click on table for larger image

Click here for latest RCP polls

—————————————————

Related reports on this site

Why Donald Trump Beats Jeb Bush: The Personal Electability Index (Aug. 23, 2015)

Trump-Bush_2015-08-06_Getty-SCT
Photo credit: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump (Aug. 9, 2015)

Trump poster (July 2015)
Click on image for larger view

The Personality Profile of 2016 Democratic Presidential Candidate Hillary Clinton (March 11, 2015)

Clinton poster
Click on image for larger view

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Marco Rubio (Feb. 14, 2016)

Marco Rubio poster 2016-02
Click on image for larger view

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Ted Cruz (Sept. 6, 2015)

Ted Cruz poster 2015-09
Click on image for larger view

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Ben Carson (Aug. 30, 2015)

Carson poster (2015-08)
Click on image for larger view

Why Mitt Romney Won’t Be President — In Theory (Oct. 29, 2012)


Aubrey Immelman and Andrew Obritsch in Chicago at the annual scientific meeting of the International Society of Political Psychology to present their research on Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, July 2012.

Personality Matters: Mitt Romney Has Al Gore Problem
(Jan. 16, 2012)


Photo composite: The Moderate Voice

Why Mitt Romney Won’t Win (May 12, 2011)


Click on image for larger view



On Monday, Feb. 22, 2016, Daniel James (Danny) Heinrich of Annandale, Minn., who has been named a “person of interest” in the October 1989 abduction of Jacob Wetterling, appeared in federal court in Minneapolis charged with 25 counts of possessing and receiving child pornography.


Sketch: KSTP / Cedric Hohnstadt

As reported by David Unze in the St. Cloud Times:

A man named as a person of interest in the 1989 disappearance of Jacob Wetterling pleaded not guilty Monday to 25 federal charges accusing him of possessing and receiving child pornography.

Danny James Heinrich, 52, made a brief appearance in U.S. District Court to enter his not guilty pleas. His trial on the pornography charges is scheduled for July 11. …

Heinrich, dressed in orange jail clothing, was in court for about five minutes Monday. He has been housed at the Sherburne County Jail since his arrest and indictment.

Court records filed at the time of his arrest provided details about several attacks on boys in the mid-to-late 1980s in the Paynesville area and the belief by the city’s police chief in 1990 that Heinrich should be considered a suspect in those attacks.

Court records also show that DNA links Heinrich to the abduction and sexual assault of a Cold Spring boy  months before Jacob Wetterling was abducted. …

Jacob Wetterling disappeared when he, his brother Trevor and friend Aaron Larson were biking home from a convenience store when a man approached them with a gun and ordered them into the ditch. The man asked the boys their ages, groped one of them over his clothing and told Trevor Wetterling and Larson to run and not look back or he would shoot them. …

————————————

2/26/2016 Update

Former Jail Worker and Author Speak Out On Heinrich’s Alleged Connection to Wetterling

By Liz Collin
CBS Minnesota — WCCO
February 26, 2016

Excerpts

The person of interest in Jacob Wetterling’s kidnapping – Danny Heinrich — pleaded not guilty to child pornography charges earlier this week, and has also always denied having anything to do with the abduction.

Now, we’re hearing from people who pointed the finger at him just days after Wetterling’s disappearance.

In his time working with inmates, Bruce Petersen got to know quite a few by name.

“I did almost 27 years with the Stearns County Sheriff’s Department working at the jail,” Petersen said.

In the 1980s, a young man with dark glasses became one of them. It was Heinrich.

“I remember a young, skinny, kind of shy guy. A loner type,” Petersen recalled.

In four years, Heinrich was arrested twice for drinking and driving, and once for burglary. Petersen remembers he didn’t want to follow authority.

“He seemed to be a bit passive aggressive,” he said.

Three years after Heinrich’s last arrest, Wetterling went missing. …

But it’s what Petersen and his colleagues did just days after Wetterling was kidnapped he’s thought most about these last four months. Back then, investigators asked Stearns County correctional officers to review the jail roster and to flag anyone they should focus on. Petersen recalls they made a list of at least 10 people.

“One of them was Danny Heinrich,” he said.

Court documents indicate investigators talked to Heinrich two months after Wetterling’s abduction.

Author Rob Ebben has spent the last five years researching what happened that night.

“Everything I’ve seen indicates Heinrich is the guy,” Ebben said. …

Ebben published a book about the case last spring. He writes under the name Robert Dudley.

After Heinrich’s arrest last fall, he’s out with a second edition “Answers in the Sand.” In this book, he goes back and poses new questions now that a person of interest has been named.

One part of the investigation seems to trouble Ebben most: the tire tracks left in Dan Rassier’s driveway, the area where Wetterling disappeared.

In 2003, a man named Kevin came forward to investigators to say he drove in the driveway the night. He said he was curious to see what happened after hearing the kidnapping call on a police scanner.

After Kevin’s admission, Stearns County shifted their focus to finding a kidnapper on foot but Ebben believes the evidence shows there were two sets of tire tracks left in the driveway that night. …

“It doesn’t make any sense that his presence explains anything actually,” Ebben said, talking about Kevin’s presence. …

Ebben believes zeroing in on an abduction on foot cost the case 10 years and is the real reason the spotlight was put on the neighbor to the abduction site, Rassier. Ebben still passes on his tips to investigators, convinced answers are close. …

Ebben will host a talk about his latest book next month at the Paynseville Public Library. It’s scheduled for Monday, March 28 at 6:30 p.m.

Read the full story at WCCO

——————————————————

Related reports on this site

Wetterling-suspect_Danny-Heinrich

Daniel James Heinrich Questioned in Wetterling Abduction — Investigator’s 1990 Case Notes (Nov. 23, 2015)

Danny Heinrich Arrested: Wetterling Press Conference
(Nov. 4, 2015)

Daniel Heinrich Search Warrant in Jacob Wetterling Kidnapping (Oct. 30, 2015)

New Book on Jacob Wetterling Abduction, Search, and Suspects (April 17, 2015)

Wetterling_book-cover