November 29, 2016 Update

2016 Presidential Election Results

Source: CNN (Nov. 28, 2016)

October 6, 2016 Update

Source: Washington Post “The Fix” (Oct. 5, 2016)

September 6, 2016 Update — First major post-Labor Day poll

August 18, 2016 Update

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

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Click here for latest RCP polls

May 23, 2016 Update

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

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Click here for latest RCP polls

May 18, 2016 Update

April 30, 2016 Update

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Click here for latest RCP polls

April 16, 2016 Update

April 15, 2016 Update

April 9, 2016 Update

National Republican Primary — HuffPost Pollster

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Feb. 17, 2016 Update

Jan. 26, 2016 Update

Dec. 4, 2015 Update

Nov. 30, 2015 Update

Nov. 22, 2015 Update

Nov. 7, 2015 Update

GOP Candidate Line-Up Announced for Fox Business / WSJ Debate

Oct. 28, 2015 Update

Gravis Marketing / One America News Poll (Oct. 26, 2015)

New York Times / CBS News Poll (Oct. 21-25, 2015)

Oct. 3, 2015 Update

Aug. 29, 2015 Update

Aug. 18, 2015 Update

Aug. 17, 2015 Update

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The large number of declared and prospective Republican presidential candidates in the 2016 election cycle — at least 16 viable candidates by one count (see graphic below) — poses a challenge for the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics, which aims to release psychological profiles of all debate participants prior to the first GOP debate, presented by Fox News in collaboration with Facebook Aug. 6 in Cleveland.

To qualify for inclusion in the Fox News debate, a candidate “must place in the top 10 of an average of the five most recent national polls by Aug. 4.” (Matea Gold, Fox News rules will limit the field in first GOP presidential debate, Washington Post, May 20, 2015)

The top 10 contenders in the five most recent national polls are former Florida governor Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, real estate tycoon Donald Trump and former Texas governor Rick Perry, according to a Washington Post analysis.

Former U.S. senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are a fraction of a point behind Perry.

Lagging behind those 12 are Sen. Lindsey O. Graham of South Carolina, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina and former New York governor George Pataki.

For the second GOP debate Sept. 16 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., CNN plans to split the candidate forum into two parts — “one featuring the top 10 candidates in public polling and a second that will include lower-tiered candidates who garner at least 1 percent in polls,” according to the Washington Post.

The status of USPP psychological profiling research with respect to GOP candidates, rank-ordered below by current [May 31, 2015] standing in opinion polling, is as follows:

Jeb Bush — In progress [Update: Study completed August 2015]
[Update: Campaign suspended February 20, 2016]
Marco Rubio — Preliminary study [Update: Study completed February 2016]
[Update: Campaign suspended March 15, 2016]
Scott Walker — Preliminary study [Update: Study completed July 2015]
[Update: Campaign suspended September 21, 2015]
Rand Paul — Preliminary study completed April 2015
[Update: Campaign suspended February 3, 2016]
Ted Cruz — Preliminary study [Update: Study completed September 2015]
[Update: Campaign suspended May 3, 2016]
Mike Huckabee — Preliminary study completed April 2015
[Update: Campaign suspended February 2, 2016]
Ben Carson — In progress [Update: Study completed August 2015]
[Update: Campaign suspended March 4, 2016]
Chris Christie — Preliminary study [Update: Study completed August 2015]
[Update: Campaign suspended February 10, 2016]
Donald Trump — In progress [Update: Study completed August 2015]
Rick Perry — Preliminary study completed April 2015
[Update: Campaign suspended September 11, 2015]
Rick Santorum — Preliminary study completed April 2012
[Update: Campaign suspended February 3, 2016]
John Kasich — Data collection pending top-tier polling
[Update: Study completed April 2016]
[Update: Campaign suspended May 4, 2016]
Lindsey Graham — Data collection pending top-tier polling
[Update: Campaign suspended December 21, 2015]
Bobby Jindal — Data collection pending  top-tier polling
[Update: Campaign suspended November 17, 2015]
Carly Fiorina — Data collection pending top-tier polling
[Update: Campaign suspended February 10, 2016]
George Pataki — Data collection pending top-tier polling
[Update: Campaign suspended December 29, 2015]

Republican presidential contenders (from left to right and top to bottom) Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, and Rick Santorum (Photo credits: Gage Skidmore, officeholder official portraits / Wikipedia) 

Republican Presidential Debate Schedule

The RNC Is Going With Only Nine Debates This Time

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus had previously vowed to cut down the number of debates in the 2016 presidential election cycle from the more than 27 debates held during the 2012 cycle. (Photo credit: AP / Lenny Ignelzi)

By Daniel Strauss
Livewire
January 16, 2015

The Republican National Committee on Friday announced nine presidential primary debates with three more possible for the 2016 cycle. …

Just one debate per state was sanctioned, fewer than the more than 27 debates held during the 2012 cycle. …

Below is the list of debates, including three that were pending when the RNC announced the schedule:

1. Fox News — August 2015 — Ohio
2. CNN — September 2015 — California
3. CNBC — October 2015 — Colorado
4. Fox Business — November 2015 — Wisconsin
5. CNN — December 2015 — Nevada
6. Fox News — January 2016 — Iowa
7. ABC News — February 2016 — New Hampshire
8. CBS News — February 2016 — South Carolina
9. NBC/Telemundo — February 2016 — Florida

Pending:

Fox News — March 2016 — TBD
CNN — March 2016 — TBD
Conservative Media Debate — Date TBD — Locations TBD

Full report

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8/6/2015 Update

Google News Lab county-by-county look at which candidates are being searched the most.

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8/11/2015 Update

Who’s Winning the G.O.P. Campaign?

New York Times interactive

History suggests that the eventual nominee will emerge from 2015 in one of the top two or three positions, as measured by endorsements, fund-raising and polling. Here, we offer a scoreboard that totes up the factors that matter most, and we’ll update it every day for the remainder of the year.

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Related reports on this site

Fox News Debate Preview: Comparative Psychological Profiles of the Republican Field (Aug. 6, 2015)

Psychological Profiles of 2016 GOP Presidential Candidates (April 24, 2015)

Projecting the Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election: The Personal Electability Index (Feb. 29, 2016)

Getty Images

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Alternate link to “GOP Presidential Candidate Profiles, Polling, and Debates” at Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics website » http://personality-politics.org/gop-presidential-candidate-profiles-polling-and-debates