The 2020 U.S. presidential election-outcome forecast issued by the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics on July 8, 2019, anticipated the surprising Super Tuesday Democratic primary results, with a surging Joe Biden defying polls and political pundits to seize the lead from an ascendant Bernie Sanders in the battle for the Democratic nomination for president.

The Presidential Electability Index (PEI), which has accurately predicted — before Super Tuesday — the outcome of every presidential election since 1996, was developed to forecast general election outcomes; however, the PEI heuristic model (which employs publicly perceived candidate personality traits as the predictor variable) proved to be exceptionally robust in projecting Biden’s unexpected Super Tuesday surge.

As conceptualized by the Personal Electability Index (PEI) forecasting model, Democratic contenders studied in the 2020 presidential election cycle and still in the race rank as follows in terms of predicted political impact as a general election candidate:

1. Joe Biden

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 22-33 (27.5 ±5.5)

2. Bernie Sanders

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 16-23 (19.5 ±3.5)

3. Elizabeth Warren

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 6-8 (7 ±1)

Executive summary

The Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics’ PEI model ranks Biden as more competitive than Sanders in a hypothetical general election matchup against Donald Trump.

Evidently — as suggested by the Super Tuesday Democratic primary results — Biden’s personal characteristics also had a stronger impact on Democratic primary voters than did Sanders’.

PEI Scores for Democratic and Republican Nominees, 1996-2016

For historical context, here are the personality-based electability scores for all major-party nominees since 1996, published before Super Tuesday in presidential election years, with the successful candidate listed first:

• 1996: Bill Clinton 37, Bob Dole 15
• 2000: George W. Bush 31, Al Gore -17
• 2004: George W. Bush 31, John Kerry 9
• 2008: Barack Obama 28, John McCain 26
• 2012: Barack Obama 10, Mitt Romney 6
• 2016: Donald Trump 62 (45 adjusted), Hillary Clinton 39 (29 adjusted)

Topical research reports

The Political Personality of Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. Working paper, Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics, St. John’s University/College of St. Benedict, December 2019. Abstract and link for full-text (21 pages; PDF) download at Digital Commons: http://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/psychology_pubs/122/

The Political Personality of 2020 Democratic Presidential Contender Bernie Sanders. Working paper, Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics, St. John’s University/College of St. Benedict, March 2020. Abstract and link for full-text (24 pages; PDF) download at Digital Commons: https://digitalcommons.csbsju.edu/psychology_pubs/126/

Related reports

The Personality Profile of Former U.S. Vice President Joe Biden (April 25, 2019)

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Joe Biden’s Second Act? 2020 “Ridin’ with Biden” (May 31, 2017)

Projecting the Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election: The Personal Electability Index (Feb. 29, 2016)