Current Events and the Psychology of Politics

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Feb 4th, 2020

CNN reports:

There’s no result yet from last night’s all-important, first-in-the-nation, election season-opening Iowa caucuses. … A vote-reporting debacle has delayed results in the contest, leaving candidates and voters furious and precincts scrambling to come up with answers. Officials from two Democratic campaigns say they were told an app used to tabulate the votes crashed, and the Iowa Democratic Party said it found inconsistencies in some vote sets.

In the absence of official election results 12 hours after the caucuses, I examined the Google Analytics report of visits to the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics pages for Democratic presidential contenders in the 7 days up to and including the Iowa caucuses (Jan. 28–Feb. 3, 2020).

            Note: Biden’s page (/joe-biden) ranked 20th in USPP page visits

Descriptive analytics for Iowa caucus contenders

1.  Bernie Sanders

      220 page visits (52.1%)
      Note: 170 (2016 page) plus 50 (2020 page)

2.  Elizabeth Warren

      74 page visits (17.5%)

3.  Pete Buttigieg

      56 page visits (13.3%)

4.  Amy Klobuchar

      50 page visits (11.9%)

5.  Joe Biden

      22 page visits (5.2%)


Update: February 7, 2020

Pete Buttigieg keeps narrow lead in Iowa caucuses with 100% of precincts reporting (Dan Merica, Jeff Zeleny, and Adam Levy, CNN, Feb. 6, 2020) — Pete Buttigieg holds a slim lead over Bernie Sanders in the Iowa caucuses with the Iowa Democratic Party announcing on Thursday night [Feb. 6] that 100% of precincts are reporting. The former South Bend, Indiana, mayor leads the Vermont senator by one-tenth of one percentage point in the all-important state delegate equivalent count. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, former Vice President Joe Biden and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar are trailing behind Buttigieg and Sanders. The Democratic candidates have until 1 p.m. ET/12 p.m. CT on Friday to file a request for a recanvass or a recount. If there are no challenges by that time, CNN plans to report a winner. … Full report

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