Immelman for Congress does not have the million-dollar war chest of the endorsed major-party candidates to wage an expensive air war in what for him thus far has been an almost entirely self-funded campaign.

But in the final week of the campaign, Immelman for Congress has launched a ground assault in Minnesota’s 6^th Congressional District with an ad campaign on all fronts — running ads in 25 district newspapers with a combined circulation of approximately 150,000 (250,000 when repeat runs are factored in).

Yesterday, we ran ads in the St. Cloud Times, the Buffalo Wright County Journal-Press, the Forest Lake Times, the Kimball Tri-County News, the Lake Elmo Leader, and the Stillwater Courier.

Today, we hit the Anoka County Union, the Paynesville Press, the College of St. Benedict/St. John’s University Record, the Rockford Area News, the Sartell Newsleader, the St. Joseph Newsleader, and the Waite Park Newsleader.

Tomorrow we run in the Becker Citizen, the Big Lake West Sherburne Tribune, the Clearwater Tribune, and the Wright County Drummer.

Other district newspapers will follow through Election Day, including repeat runs Sunday and Tuesday in the St. Cloud Times.

Our ads are neither attack ads nor issue ads – position statements can be read on this website — but public information ads that inform voters of the write-in option in the 6^th District and illustrate how to cast a write-in vote for the candidate.

Today, we’re also launching a new YouTube video on the Immelman for Congress YouTube channel, courtesy of KMSP Fox 9 in Minneapolis, which reports on Immelman’s reasons for challenging Rep. Michele Bachmann as a write-in candidate. The full text of Immelman’s indictment of Bachmann can be read here: Write-in Candidacy Announcement.

Immelman Launches Write-in Campaign Against Bachmann

MINNEAPOLIS (Fox 9, Oct. 20, 2008; Ellen Galles reporting) — Tonight, another Republican is launching a write-in campaign. He says he’s not in it to win; he’s in it to make a point.

The fact that Aubrey Immelman has pulled out his box of old campaign material is just one more sign of how significantly the 6th District congressional race changed over the weekend.

Immelman: “I want this to be a referendum within the Republican Party on the kind of leadership — or, more pertinently, the lack of leadership — that Rep. Michele Bachmann has shown.”

Immelman lost to Bachmann in the primary but filed to run as a write-in after hearing her on MSNBC Friday night.

Bachmann (to Chris Matthews): “I’m very concerned that he [Obama] may have anti-American views; that’s what the American people are concerned about.”

In that interview, Bachmann told host Chris Matthews she’s concerned Barack Obama has anti-American views and that the media should look into other members of Congress and whether or not they’re anti-American.

Immelman: “We have to understand that we’re all American; we might have differences of opinion, but no one has any business questioning the patriotism of any member of Congress, no matter what their party-political affiliation.”

Immelman is not the only one who was offended. Bachmann’s comments have gotten national attention and have given the DFL [Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party] a sudden, unexpected boost in the 6th District.

But Bachmann says she’s being misquoted and misunderstood. She appeared on the Fox 9 Morning News today to set the record straight.

Bachmann: “This has been completely misconstrued to say that I believe members of Congress are anti-American. I never said that. I said the media should look into it.”

In the end, voters will have to decide how to interpret all this; not just what Bachmann said, but whether Immelman is more than just a candidate with a box of old campaign material. 

——

Immelman Starts Running Campaign Ads

Newstalk KNSI AM 1450
St. Cloud
Oct. 29, 2009

Sixth District Republican write-in candidate Aubrey Immelman is doing some advertising in how to cast a write-in vote. Immelman says he bought 22 insertions in papers covering most of the Sixth District with a circulation of 116,000. The first of four ads appear in the St. Cloud Times today.

The ad is replica of what the November 4th ballot would look like.

Immelman says a vote for him is a referendum against GOP incumbent Michele Bachmann who is endorsed by the party.

Immelman is an associate professor at the College of Saint Benedict and Saint John’s University.

He lost to Bachmann in the primary and re-launched his campaign after the Congresswoman’s “anti-American” comments.

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Suicide Attack on Afghan Ministry Kills At Least 5

Taliban claims responsibility; foreign advisers targeted

Police officers and firefighters work at the scene of a suicide attack in Kabul on Thursday. (Photo credit: Omar Sobhani / Reuters)

The Associated Press and Reuters via MSNBC.com
Oct. 30, 2008

KABUL, Afghanistan – A suicide bomber blew himself up inside the Afghan Ministry of Information and Culture on Thursday, killing at least five people, officials and witnesses said. The Taliban claimed responsibility. …

Zabiullah Mujahid, a Taliban spokesman, said three militants stormed the building by throwing hand grenades at the guards at the main gate. One carried out the suicide attack and the other two fled, he said. …

Thursday’s attack was the latest episode in escalating violence in Afghanistan this year, which has marked the bloodiest period since the Taliban’s ouster in 2001. …

On July 7, a suicide bomber detonated his explosives outside the gates of the Indian Embassy in Kabul, killing more than 60 people and wounding 146. …

It echoed growing frustration among many Afghans about insecurity, rampant corruption, lack of the rule of law and civilian casualties caused by foreign troops in strikes against the militants.

The Taliban have ruled out talks until foreign troops, led by the U.S. military and NATO, leave Afghanistan.

—

U.S. Helicopter Shot Down in Afghanistan
Crew survive; separately, bomber kills 2 U.S. soldiers

KABUL, Afghanistan – Insurgents shot down a U.S. helicopter after exchanging fire with its crew in central Afghanistan on Monday, while a suicide bomber in the north killed two U.S. soldiers inside a police station, officials said.

The helicopter was forced down in Wardak, one province west of Kabul, after insurgents hit it with gunfire Monday, said Lt. Cmdr. Walter Matthew, a U.S. military spokesman. The crew survived and have been extracted from the area, he said. …

Wardak province has seen an increase in insurgent activity the last two years, and its main highway is now extremely risky to travel on, particularly at night. In mid-October, a U.S. Special Forces raid freed a kidnapped American working for the Army Corps of Engineers who had been held by his captors in Wardak for two months. …

Separately, a suicide bomber wearing a police uniform blew himself up inside a police station in northern Afghanistan on Monday, killing two American soldiers and wounding five other people, officials said. …

Militants in Afghanistan have in the past disguised themselves in police or army uniforms when attacking Afghan and foreign troops. But actual policemen in the Afghan force were responsible for at least two recent attacks in eastern Afghanistan in which two U.S. soldiers died after police opened fire on them in two separate incidents.

——

Security Developments in Iraq

Following are security developments in Iraq on Oct. 28 and 29, 2008, as reported by Reuters.

MOSUL – A parked car bomb near a police patrol killed one policeman and wounded six others in southern Mosul, 240 miles north of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD – A roadside bomb wounded four Education Ministry employees when it struck their minibus in northeastern Baghdad’s Ur district, police said.

MOSUL – Three soldiers on a foot patrol were seriously wounded by a bomb in western Mosul, north of Baghdad, police said.

RAMADI – A roadside bomb killed one civilian and wounded another in Ramadi, 60 miles west of Baghdad, police Major Alaa al-Dulaimi said.

BAQUBA – A roadside bomb killed a 4-year old girl and wounded eight other civilians including women and children at a market in central Baquba, 40 miles northeast of Baghdad, police said.

KIRKUK – A sticky bomb — designed to be easily attachable to targets by magnets or other means — that had been fixed to a police vehicle wounded two policemen in central Kirkuk, 155 miles north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL – A sniper shot dead an Iraqi soldier in western Mosul, police said.

MOSUL – A roadside bomb wounded three policemen when it struck their patrol in southeastern Mosul, police said.

MOSUL – Gunmen wounded an Iraqi policeman in a drive-by shooting in western Mosul, police said.

RAMADI – Iraqi police captured 12 militants smuggling roadside and sticky bombs into the city of Ramadi, 60 miles west of Baghdad, police Colonel Ahmed Hameed al-Sharqi of Anbar province police said.

BAGHDAD – A parked car bomb killed four people and wounded 10 others near a market in southwestern Baghdad’s Jihad district, police said. An interior ministry source put the toll at five people killed and 15 wounded.

MOSUL – Gunmen killed four police recruits and wounded five others in a drive-by shooting in western Mosul, 240 miles north of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD – A roadside bomb wounded four people in the district of Nahda, in central Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD – Three people were wounded by a bomb blast in al-Nidhal street, central Baghdad, police said.

TAL AFAR – Police found a decomposed body inside a house under construction in Tal Afar, 260 miles northwest of Baghdad, police said.

HILLA – A body of a policeman was found with gunshot wounds to the head in central Hilla, 60 miles south of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD – One civilian was killed and nine others were wounded by an explosion on Monday in Abu Ghraib, west of Baghdad, the U.S. military said. 

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Aubrey Immelman, Write-in Candidate for 6th Congressional District

Position sought: 6th District U.S. Representative
Age: 52
Residence: 99 Eighth St. N., Sartell
Family: Wife, Pamela; four children.
Occupation: Psychology professor, College of St. Benedict and St. John’s University; military consultant (independent contractor).
Education: Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, South Africa, Ph.D., 1991, with coursework at the University of Wyoming and the University of Maine, 1986-1988.
Previous government/political experience: None.
Contact information: (320) 240-6828, info@immelman.net, www.immelman.us.

What should America’s diplomatic and military strategy be in the Middle East?

Diplomatically, America should have a vigorous strategy of building coalitions with allies and engaging adversaries in tough diplomacy by punishing behaviors that threaten U.S. national security interests and rewarding behaviors that promote U.S. interests in the region — in other words, the proven carrot-and-stick approach to international politics.

We should have a strong military presence in the region to deter adversaries from threatening vital U.S. security interests in the Middle East and to protect our allies; however, our military footprint should be as small as possible to avoid any perception of the U.S. as an occupying power, which breeds hostility and undermines U.S. national security.

In Iraq, we should reduce our military presence in an orderly manner that does not jeopardize recent security gains or enable Iran to exploit the complex national security predicament created by the removal of Saddam Hussein. U.S. military assets and resources no longer needed in Iraq need to be shifted to counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan.

What should the federal government do to change the nation’s immigration system?

A cornerstone of a nation’s sovereignty is the will of its people and the ability of its government to secure its borders and to uphold its territorial integrity.

Our government has failed in its duty to control our borders and to regulate unauthorized access to the United States.

First, as a nation, we must do whatever it takes to secure our borders and ports of entry.

Second, before we even begin to consider changing our nation’s immigration system, we must start enforcing existing immigration law, which prohibits illegal entry into the United States, overstaying nonresident visas and hiring aliens without legitimate employment authorization.

Third, once we have achieved verifiable border security, we must work to develop a realistic plan for dealing with the estimated 12 million or more people unlawfully present in the United States. That plan cannot involve amnesty. We’ve tried that failed policy before, in 1986, when the Reagan administration granted amnesty to 6 million illegal aliens — resulting in a doubling of the number of undocumented aliens two decades later.

In short, because of the ill-conceived immigration policies of the past, lax border security and feeble enforcement of immigration law, we are saddled with a situation that has no good practical solution.

Placing illegal aliens on a path to citizenship will encourage more of the same, while mass deportation will have such a negative impact on the international stature of the United States that it may well have adverse consequences for U.S. national security.

What should the federal government do to affect energy and fuel prices?

As a first order of business, stop printing and borrowing money to fund unnecessary wars. Monetary and fiscal policies that increase the money supply and rely on deficit spending to pay for Iraq contribute to inflation and drive down the value of the dollar, adding to the high price at the pump and the grocery checkout counter for U.S. consumers.

Second, do what it takes to increase the oil supply through expanded drilling and reduce demand by promoting energy conservation and developing alternative energy sources.

What principles guide you on spending, saving, investing and taxing and what new ideas should we try?

My guiding principle in politics is traditional conservatism. Traditional conservatives believe in limited government; in contrast, neoconservatives have given us the most bloated government in the history of our nation. Traditional conservatives want a balanced budget; in contrast, neoconservatives have taken us from surpluses to record deficits. Traditional conservatives don’t mire us in unnecessary foreign entanglements. In short, traditional conservative values promote small government, fiscal restraint and a strong military focused primarily on national defense, not nation-building or preemptive war.

Traditional conservatives believe in individual responsibility and not looking to the government to carry us from cradle to grave. They believe in low taxes and balancing tax cuts with spending cuts.

What new ideas should we try?

I humbly suggest we return to an old, time-tested idea: Balance the budget.

On saving and investment, I’ll say this: The government should get its priorities straight. We spend hundreds of billions on bombing and rebuilding Iraq while our own critical needs remain unmet.

Should the federal government help people who can’t afford their mortgages and the lenders who issued them and how?

The fiscally conservative approach is no bailout, but we face a crisis where relief may be necessary to prevent further damage to the mortgage industry and the real estate market.

It’s in our national interest to help homeowners to the extent necessary to avert a market collapse, but we need safeguards that will prevent the enrichment of mortgage lenders on the taxpayer’s dime.

The two mortgage giants that hold or guarantee about half of the nation’s home mortgage debt are among the biggest spenders on lobbying and political donations. The industry needs reform and better oversight, so it won’t put hardworking, tax-paying Americans at risk again.

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EDITORIAL

Minnesota Daily
Oct. 22, 2008

 Defeating Michele Bachmann

In one of the strangest political interviews in recent memory, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann told Chris Matthews on “Hardball” that she believed Barack Obama might have “anti-American views,” and called on the media to investigate whether Congressional members also hold anti-American views. …

[We] call on University of Minnesota students to donate money to her DFL opponent Elwyn Tinklenberg — who has received roughly $800,000 in donations from across the nation since Bachmann made the comments Sunday — or Aubrey Immelman, the Republican runner-up in the primaries who, because Bachmann’s comments “dishonored her office,” is rejuvenating his campaign …

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Iraqis Await Resurrection of Scarred Mosul

MOSUL, Iraq – Five years of war have reduced much of Mosul to rubble, and U.S. and Iraqi authorities are pledging to deliver on long-time promises to rebuild as they launch a new campaign to rout a stubborn insurgency. …

Near a giant U.S. military base, American humvees rumble down “Baghdad Highway.” The thoroughfare is lined by buildings flattened into heaps of cinderblock or pockmarked by mortar blasts and bullets.

Sewage runs freely and cows graze around mounds of litter. Shops keep their metal gates shut tight, and people stay indoors. At dusk the air is thick with burning trash. …

“When anyone arrives in Mosul today, he would think it is a battleground,” said the minister, Farouq Abdul-Qadir, ticking off a list of problems: an ancient sewage system, a woefully inadequate power supply, high unemployment, and a slowing but still grim drumbeat of assassinations and bomb attacks.

“In the past, the problem for reconstruction was security, and the same problem exists now. We still don’t have full security in Mosul,” he said.

“Abject failure”

Since 2003, the United States has spent millions of dollars in Mosul to improve electricity, overhaul army facilities, rehabilitate schools and on other works. …

U.S. Brigadier General Tony Thomas, commander of U.S. forces in Mosul, said a recent Iraqi initiative to follow military operations with millions of dollars’ worth of reconstruction had been an “abject failure.” …

On October 15, Iraqi and U.S. forces began their third major military operation in Mosul since May. They will go house to house in search of insurgents and weapons caches. …

Violence and decay

Rebuilding a city still marred by violence is not easy.

Earlier this year, U.S. soldiers visited a school in western Mosul they were planning to renovate. Soon afterwards, the headmaster received a call warning him to send the children home early. A car bomb flattened the school that afternoon. …

Related report on this site

Iraq War Drags On in Mosul (Nov. 12, 2008)

——

Security Developments in Iraq

Following are security developments in Iraq on Oct. 26, 2008, as reported by Reuters.

RAMADI – Gunmen seriously wounded Ahmed Dawoud Marzouq, the Anbar provincial representative of the Iraqi National Dialogue Front, a mainly Sunni Arab political group. The gunmen stormed his house after clashing with his guards in the provincial capital Ramadi, police captain Ghazi Faisel told Reuters.

NEAR KIRKUK – U.S. forces killed three wanted militants and arrested three others during operations just southwest of Kirkuk, the U.S. military said. Kirkuk is 155 miles north of Baghdad.

BAGHDAD – A roadside bomb wounded two policemen when it targeted their patrol in the district of Baladiyat in eastern Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL – Gunmen killed one policeman in a drive-by shooting on his checkpoint in eastern Mosul, 240 miles north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL – A roadside bomb wounded two policemen when it targeted their patrol in southern Mosul, police said.

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Iraqi Party Suspends Ties With U.S. Over Raid

Oct. 25, 2008

BAGHDAD – Iraq’s biggest Sunni Arab political party suspended all dealings with U.S. civilian and military personnel on Saturday after U.S. and Iraqi forces carried out a raid in which a man was killed.

The incident could increase tension in a part of Iraq that was once the heartland of the insurgency against U.S. forces but has become among the quietest parts of the country over the past two years.

U.S. forces said one man had been arrested and one had been killed in a joint U.S.-Iraqi raid against a suspected militant on Friday in the town of Falluja.

The Iraqi Islamic Party, headed by Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi, said the targets of the raid were senior party officials. Five people had been detained and one killed “in his bed,” it said in a statement. …

Falluja, in Anbar province west of the capital, was the scene of the war’s two heaviest battles between U.S. forces and Sunni insurgents in 2004, but has become quiet after tribes began cooperating with American troops in late 2006. …

——

Security Developments in Iraq

Following are security developments in Iraq on Saturday, Oct. 25, 2008 as reported by Reuters.

BAGHDAD – One man was killed and 5 civilians were wounded in clashes between the Iraqi army and unknown armed men in Shaab district in northern parts of the city, police said.

BAGHDAD – A bomb stuck to a vehicle carrying an Iraqi army brigadier general killed the driver and wounded the general and a civilian in the central Karrada district, police said.

KIRKUK – A body of a women was found in the southwestern industrial district of the city of Kirkuk, 155 miles north of Baghdad, police said.

JURF AL-SAKHER – One man was wounded when a speeding car opened fire on a checkpoint of U.S.-backed patrols in Jurf al-Sakher, 25 miles south of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD – Two Iraqi soldiers were killed and three wounded when a bomb exploded in Baghdad’s central Palestine Street district, police said.

NEAR KIRKUK – Iraqi police found the body of a man with signs of torture just south of Kirkuk, 155 miles north of Baghdad, police said.

FALLUJA – Gunmen killed an imam of a mosque and another man in a drive-by shooting northeast of Falluja, police said.

MOSUL – Gunmen killed two off-duty policemen in a drive-by shooting in eastern Mosul, 240 miles north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL – A roadside bomb wounded two women when it struck an Iraqi army vehicle in eastern Mosul, north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL – Gunmen killed a civilian in a drive-by shooting in eastern Mosul, north of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR KUT – Iraqi police arrested one gunman and wounded another in clashes on Friday just south of Kut, 95 miles southeast of Baghdad, Police Major Aziz Latif said.

NEAR KUT – Police said they found a dead body inside an abandoned house just south of Kut on Friday. The dead individual appeared to have been tortured and shot.

FALLUJA – Iraqi soldiers killed a suspected militant and arrested another one, believed to be responsible for training insurgents in producing and placing roadside bombs, on Friday in Falluja, 30 miles west of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

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ACADEMIC HAT

Personality profiles of John McCain and Barack Obama, developed at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics at St. John’s University and the College of St. Benedict.

McCain’s maverick nature is double-edged sword

Obama’s conciliatory tendency could be cause for concern

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A new poll sponsored by Minnesota Public Radio News and the University of Minnesota’s Hubert H. Humphrey Institute, released Friday, mirrors the results of the SurveyUSA poll released the previous day by KSTP-TV: Support for U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) is holding steady a week after she became a lightning rod for national criticism and media attention for saying on MSNBC’s “Hardball” last week that Barack Obama “may have anti-American views” and the media should investigate which members of Congress “are pro-America or anti-America.”

The poll, conducted Oct. 21-23 on a sample of 430 likely voters showed Democratic challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg leading Republican incumbent Michele Bachmann 45 to 43 percent. Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson was at 5 percent, with 7 percent undecided in the poll, which had a 4.7 percentage-point margin of error.

Larry Jacobs, director of the Humphrey Institute’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, said on MPR that the poll results show Bachmann is losing support even among Republicans, with about one-fifth of respondents supporting Norm Coleman and John McCain saying they’re not supporting Bachmann.

Analysis

The results confirm my analysis reported yesterday on this blog, that Rep. Michele Bachmann’s support has not ebbed in the wake of the “Hardball” imbroglio. 

Two partisan polls conducted a week before Bachmann’s “Hardball” appearance — Grove Insight  (Oct. 10-12) on behalf of Tinklenberg and Public Opinion Strategies (Oct. 12-13) for Bachmann — show Bachmann with a mean of 43 and Tinklenberg with a mean of 35.5.

Two independent polls conducted in the week after Bachmann’s “Hardball” appearance — KSTP/SurveyUSA (Oct. 20-21) and MPR/UofM Humphrey Institute (Oct. 21-23) – show Bachmann with a mean of 43.5 and Tinklenberg with a mean of 46.

The table below reports the data from five available polls and their descriptive statistics. 

                                                            Bachmann Tinklenberg Anderson Undecided
Grove Insight (Aug. 19-21)                        40            27                 –                 –
Grove Insight (Oct. 10-12)                         42            38                 –                15
Public Opinion Strategies (Oct. 12-13)   44            33                 8                 –
SurveyUSA (Oct. 20-21)                            44             47                 6                 2
MPR/UofM (Oct. 21-23)                              43             45                 5                 7

Mean                                                               42.6          38              6.3              8.8
Standard deviation                                      1.5           7.4              1.2              5.4

In summary, inspection of the two pre- and two post-Hardball polls offer no evidence that Rep. Bachmann lost voter support as a result of the remarks she made on “Hardball” and the political firestorm that followed.

Was has changed is that Tinklenberg’s poll numbers advanced by double digits in a matter of days, most likely reflecting a combination of improved name recognition and movement in his direction by independent and undecided voters.

My analysis of yesterday remains unchanged: Tinklenberg has reached the ceiling of voter support – high mid-40s – in the strongly Republican-leaning 6th District.

——

IRAQ UPDATE

Security Developments in Iraq

Following are security developments in Iraq on Oct. 24, 2008 as reported by Reuters.

KUT – A mortar bomb killed three children and wounded two others on Thursday when it landed on a house just east of Kut, 95 miles southeast of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR TUZ KHURMATO – One Iraqi soldier was killed and two others were wounded when gunmen attacked a checkpoint near Tuz Khurmato, 105 miles north of Baghdad, police said. Three suspected militants were also killed.

BAGHDAD – U.S. forces detained eight suspected militants during operations in central Iraq on Thursday and Friday, the U.S. military said.

——

Iraqi Christians flee Mosul after death threats

GENEVA, Oct. 24, 2008 (Reuters) – More than half of the Christians living in Mosul have fled the northern Iraqi city in the past two weeks, some going to Syria, after receiving death threats, the United Nations refugee agency said on Friday. …

More than 2,200 Christian families — about 13,000 people — have sought refuge north and east of Mosul, or in nearby Iraqi regions including Dahuk, Arbil and Kirkuk. About 400 crossed into Syria for refuge there …

Syria is already hosting at least 1.2 million Iraqis who have fled war and upheaval in their home country, which U.S.-led forces invaded in 2003.

—–

Other headlines:

Al-Qaida in Iraq’s leader says in a new audiotape his group is now focused on attacks outside Iraq (AP, 10/24/08)

Americans show Iraqis how to spend money (AP, 10/24/08)

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A new SurveyUSA poll, released Thursday night by ABC affiliate KSTP-TV 5 in Minneapolis, shows support for U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) has remained steady in the wake of her controversial statement on MSNBC’s “Hardball” with Chris Matthews, Oct. 17, 2008, that she wants the media to investigate which members of Congress “are pro-America or anti-America.” 

The poll, conducted Oct. 20-21 on a sample of 621 likely voters consisting of 40 percent Republican, 32 percent Democratic, and 25 percent Independent voters – closely matching the party-political composition of the 6th Congressional District — showed Democratic challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg leading Republican incumbent Michele Bachman 47 to 44 percent. Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson was at 6 percent, with 2 percent undecided in the poll, which had a 4 percentage-point margin of sampling error.

Analysis

Examining four polls conducted since late August, Bachmann’s support has remained unchanged and may, in fact, have firmed marginally since the “Hardball” flap. As shown below, Bachmann’s poll numbers improved 4 percentage points in the course of the polling period.

                                                            Bachmann Tinklenberg Anderson Undecided
Grove Insight (Aug. 19-21)                        40            27                 –                 –
Grove Insight (Oct. 10-12)                         42            38                 –                15
Public Opinion Strategies (Oct. 12-13)   44            33                 8                 –
SurveyUSA (Oct. 20-21)                            44             47                 6                 2
Mean                                                              42.5         36.3             7.0              8.5
Standard deviation                                      1.7           7.3              1.0              6.5

What appears to have occurred it that the “Hardball” fallout has moved undecided voters — as high as 15 percent in the Oct. 10-12 Grove Insight poll — to Tinklenberg, adding roughly 10 percentage points to his poll numbers. (Note that Bachmann’s poll numbers have a range of just 4 percentage points and a standard deviation of 1.7, whereas Tinklenberg’s numbers have a range of 20 percentage points and a standard deviation of 7.3 points.) 

With just 2 percent undecided voters in the SurveyUSA poll, there does not appear to much leeway for Tinklenberg to advance his 3-point lead beyond the poll’s 4-point margin of error.

SurveyUSA notes that the contest is volatile:

These numbers freeze-frame a pendulum that may not yet have swung its full arc. All interviews were conducted after Bachmann made comments on MSNBC that drew national attention. During the field period for the survey, the National Republican Congressional Committee suspended its advertising in the District and the Democratic candidate raised $1 million. The full impact of those events would not yet be reflected in these poll results.

In addition, the poll does not account for the fact that on Oct. 18, 2008 – the day after Bachmann’s appearance on “Hardball” — her challenger for the Republican nomination (who garnered 14 percent of the vote in the Sept. 9, 2008 primary election), mounted an organized write-in campaign targeting moderate Republican voters.

—-

IRAQ UPDATE

Security Developments in Iraq

Following are security developments in Iraq on Oct. 23, 2008, as reported by Reuters.

Read the rest of this entry »

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In an article published Oct. 21 at HumanEvents.com, Chuck Norris – who previously supported Gov. Mike Huckabee for the Republican nomination and subsequently endorsed Sen. John McCain for president – references research conducted at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics at St. John’s University and the College of St. Benedict in Minnesota.

Disclaimer: The Unit for the Study of Personality, an academic student-faculty collaborative research project directed by Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., associate professor of psychology, is operated for research and educational purposes only. The Unit does not advocate the support or defeat of any candidate for any political office. Political analysis published by the director or research associates of the Unit is the personal opinion of those individuals.

The inferences and analysis in the article that follows are those of the author, Chuck Norris. Republishing the article on this blog should not be construed as an endorsement of Mr. Norris’s opinions by Aubrey Immelman or the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics.

 
Obama will not lose his bid for the presidency because of his connections to Ayers, ACORN or socialist politics. In fact, he won’t lose it because of his stand on any issue. The coup de grace for Obama’s presidential election downfall will come only through convincing the American public of his lack of decisive leadership under pressure. I’m not just talking about facing rogue nations or terrorist thugs. I’m referring to making major choices in conflict. Indecisiveness is his greatest weakness, and it’s one this country cannot afford at this time in its history.

Interestingly, a while back, the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics, at St. John’s University and the College of St. Benedict, did a professional personality profile “for anticipating Obama’s likely leadership style as chief executive, thereby providing a basis for inferring the character and tenor of a prospective Obama presidency.” The study concluded:

“The combination of Ambitious, Accommodating, and Outgoing patterns in Obama’s profile suggests a confident conciliator personality composite. Leaders with this personality prototype, though self-assured and ambitious, are characteristically gracious, considerate, and benevolent. They are energetic, charming, and agreeable, with a special knack for settling differences, favoring mediation and compromise over force or coercion as a strategy for resolving conflict. They are driven primarily by a need for achievement and also have strong affiliation needs, but a low need for power.”

While most might laud Obama’s personality as a needed polar opposite to George W. Bush’s, I pose to you that Obama’s “accommodating-conciliator-favoring-compromise” personality pendulum swing is way too far to the other side.

Even Obama’s voting record proves that. His own Democratic colleagues have a difficult time understanding why, when he was an Illinois state senator, he voted “present” (instead of “yes” or “no”) 129 times, including a number of noncommittal tallies on issues such as gun rights and abortion.

You also have heard that Obama doesn’t have any executive experience, whether it be running a government or a business. I would pose to you the reason is simply that he’s not comfortable making executive decisions. An “executive conciliator” overly depends upon others, at times compromising judgment and needed action in order to appease the masses. Proof of that was seen in how Obama handled his and our “emergency” economic decisions. …

A few months ago, Obama did not turn to Warren Buffett for counsel on the housing crisis. As The Washington Post reported July 16, he turned to Franklin Raines, the former Fannie Mae chief executive officer and six-year money manipulator. The Post said Raines took “calls from Barack Obama’s presidential campaign seeking his advice on mortgage and housing policy matters.”

And consider Obama’s handling of the “emergency” bailout crisis. During the first go-round of the bailout, while McCain was certain of his stand, Obama wouldn’t say where he stood because he was afraid it would be a wrong or unpopular stand. Only after most of his political cronies were bribed in favor of the bailout did Obama give it his stamp of approval. If he cannot take decisive action as a senator in the greatest nation on earth, how in the world is he going to make critical and emergency decisions as the president?

Obama’s inability to draw and hold hard lines is the primary reason he repeatedly struggles with — and caves and morphs into — the polls or people in front of him. More than any other politician in history, he has flip-flopped on a host of critical issues: Iraq, Iran, gay rights, NAFTA, abortion, race, religion, gun control, etc. It’s one thing to be political, but it’s quite another to be a chronic people pleaser under pressure. Swaying based on political expediency is not a leadership quality we need in tough times. Sooner or later, that character flaw will bite Obama big-time — and us if we elect him president.

I’m not saying Obama has no continued future in politics. He just needs more experience in life to weed out those character deficiencies. That’s why I’m asking Americans to look afresh at these questions: Is Obama crisis-leadership qualified? Will he truly be ready Jan. 20 to assume the helm of our country?

Actually, those leadership questions have been answered already by three leading Democrats (before they could taste the perks from their alignment with the Democratic presidential nominee). Obama’s own running mate, Sen. Joe Biden, replied only months ago about whether Obama is ready for the presidency: “Right now I don’t believe he is. The presidency is not something that lends itself to on-the-job training.” Then he later told George Stephanopoulos, “I stand by the statement.” Biden was right.

Before Obama was her party’s choice, Hillary Clinton repeatedly proved him to be an indecisive waffler who couldn’t or wouldn’t be pinned down on any issues. Hillary was right.

Even former President Bill Clinton dodged having to give an affirmative answer to an ABC correspondent when asked whether Obama is ready to be president by saying, “You can argue that no one is ready to be president.” Another smooth answer, Bill. The fact is he totally understands that Obama is not ready.

America is in one of its toughest hours — a market meltdown, the worst fiscal environment since the Great Depression — an economic 9/11, if you will. Do we really believe we can be delivered by an indecisive people pleaser as our country’s CEO?

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UPDATE

Barack Obama’s Leadership Style (Feb. 21, 2009)

Barack Obama’s Personality Profile (Nov. 2, 2008)

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Doubletake

After the startling sequence of events set in motion by last Friday’s 7-minute flameout of U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s reelection campaign in Minnesota’s “safe” 6th Congressional District, I thought I’d seen it all.

But I was almost as startled when I saw this guest suggestion for “The Daily Show” with Jon Stewart.

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IRAQ UPDATE

Suicide Strike on Iraq Cabinet Minister’s Convoy; 11 killed

Iraqi army soldiers inspect a damaged car after a suicide car bomber targeted a government convoy in Bab al-Sharji, central Baghdad, on Thursday, Oct. 23, 2008. (Photo credit: Hadi Mizban / AP)

 
Oct. 23, 2008

BAGHDAD – A suicide car bomber rammed into a convoy carrying Iraq’s labor minister in morning traffic, killing 11 people and wounding 22 in central Baghdad, police said on Thursday.

A spokesman for the Labor Ministry said Minister Mahmoud al-Sheikh Radhi was unhurt, but three of his bodyguards were among the dead.

A Reuters television cameraman in the vicinity filmed the blast, but said an Iraqi soldier confiscated his videotape. The cameraman, about 150 yards away at the time of the explosion, saw a car slam into a convoy of six or seven four-wheel-drive vehicles and explode in a ball of flame near Tahrir square in central Baghdad.

Police and bodyguards in the convoy opened fire after the blast. Several vehicles crashed and others sped away as chaos ensued.

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Security Developments in Iraq

Following are security developments in Iraq on Wednesday, Oct. 22, 2008, as reported by Reuters.

MOSUL – An unidentified body with bullet wounds to the head and the chest was found in the east of the city of Mosul, 240 miles north of Baghdad, police said.

MOSUL – An Iraqi soldier was wounded when a passing car opened fire on an Iraqi army checkpoint in Mosul, police said.

MOSUL – A bomb in a parked car killed four civilians and wounded four others in western Mosul, police said.

BAGHDAD – Bombs attached to two cars wounded five people when they exploded in central and western Baghdad, police said.

QAIM – Iraqi police found remains of 34 people in Qaim, 185 miles west of Baghdad, police said. The source added the bodies are believed to have been buried two years ago.

TIKRIT – U.S. forces said they captured a wanted militant on Tuesday in Tikrit, 95 miles, north of Baghdad.

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Related story: Condoleezza Rice says Iraqis can’t yet defend Iraq alone

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