5 Coordinated Bombings Hit Baghdad Mosques, Killing at Least 29 

Karim Kadim / AP

July 31, 2009

BAGHDAD – Bombs exploded near five Shiite mosques in Baghdad, killing at least 29 people, in an apparent coordinated attack that targeted worshippers leaving Friday prayers, Iraqi police and hospital officials said.

The bombings shattered a period of relative calm in the Iraqi capital, raising to at least 306 the number of Iraqis killed in what has been one of the least deadly months for both Iraqi civilians and U.S. troops since the war began. Seven American troops have been killed — the lowest monthly total since the war started in March 2003, according to an AP tally. …

The deadliest attack Friday came when a car bomb exploded near a Shiite mosque in the northern Baghdad neighborhood of Shaab, killing at least 24 people and wounding 17 others, said two Iraqi police officials and a medical official.

At about the same time, almost simultaneous explosions struck near the al-Rasoul mosque near the Jisr Diyala bridge, in southern Baghdad, killing four worshippers and wounding 17 others, the two police officials said.

A roadside bomb exploded near al-Hakim mosque in Kamaliyah area in eastern Baghdad, wounding six worshippers. A bomb near Imam al-Sadiq mosque in the religiously mixed neighborhood of Ilam in southwestern Baghdad wounded 4, while a bomb near the al-Sadrain mosque in the Zafaraniyah area in southeastern Baghdad killed one and wounded seven worshippers. …

Only three other months this year saw fewer Iraqis killed since the AP began tracking war-related fatalities in May 2005. There were 242 deaths in January, 288 in February and 225 in May. …

American troops, though, continue to be targeted by insurgents. On Friday, rockets struck a U.S. base outside Iraq’s second largest city of Basra, but there were no reports of casualties. Three U.S. soldiers were killed earlier this month in a similar attack at the base. …

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Iraq: Key Figures Since the War Began 

Aug 1, 2009

U.S. troop levels

• October 2007: 170,000 at peak of troop buildup
• July 31, 2009: 131,000

Casualties

• Confirmed U.S. military deaths as of July 30, 2009: at least 4,329
• Confirmed U.S. military wounded (hostile) as of July 31, 2009: 31,454
• Confirmed U.S. military wounded (non-hostile, using medical air transport) as of July 4, 2009: 37,613
• U.S. military deaths for July 2009: 7 (lowest number since the war began in March 2003)
• Deaths of civilian employees of U.S. government contractors as of June 30, 2009: 1,395
• Iraqi deaths in July 2009 from war-related violence: at least 308 (down from 447 in June; only three months – all of them in 2009 – have seen fewer Iraqis killed since the AP began tracking war-related fatalities in May 2005)
• Assassinated Iraqi academics as of June 16, 2009: 423
• Journalists killed on assignment as of July 31, 2009: 139

Cost

• More than $669 billion, according to the National Priorities Project

Oil production

• Prewar: 2.58 million barrels per day
• July 9, 2009: 2.48 million barrels per day

Population displacement

• Prewar: 500,000 Iraqis living abroad
• June 5, 2009: more than 1.5 million Iraqis living abroad, mainly in Syria and Jordan
• June 5, 2009: more than 2.8 million currently displaced inside Iraq

Sources: The Associated Press, State Department, Defense Department, Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, The Brookings Institution, International Organization for Migration, Committee to Protect Journalists, National Priorities Project, The Brussels Tribunal, and the U.S. Department of Labor.

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8/1/09 Update

U.S. Troops Now a ‘Coalition of One’ in Iraq

A U.S. soldier collects his gear as U.S. troops prepare to leave their base after handing it over to the Iraqi forces in Qurna, 90 kilometers north of Basra, Iraq, Saturday, Aug. 1, 2009. (Photo credit: Nabil al-Jurani / AP)

Aug. 1, 2009

BAGHDAD – The war in Iraq was truly an American-only effort Saturday after Britain and Australia, the last of its international partners, pulled out.

Little attention was paid in Iraq to what effectively ended the so-called coalition of the willing, with the U.S. — as the leader of Multi-National Force, Iraq — letting the withdrawals pass without any public demonstration. …

At its height, the coalition numbered about 300,000 soldiers from 38 countries — 250,000 from the United States, about 40,000 from Britain, and the rest ranging from 2,000 Australians to 70 Albanians. But most of the United States’ traditional European allies, those who supported actions in Afghanistan and the previous Iraq war, sat it out.

It effectively ended this week with Friday’s departure of Australian troops and the expiration of the mandate for the tiny remaining British contingent after Iraq’s parliament adjourned without agreeing to allow the troops to stay to protect southern oil ports and train Iraqi troops. …

The coalition had a troubled history and began to crumble within months of the U.S.-led invasion as many countries faced political and social unrest over an unpopular war.

Critics said the tiny contingents that partnered with the coalition, such as Estonia, Albania and Romania, gave the U.S. token international support for the invasion.

Mass protests were held in many countries, including Spain, which was one of the most notable withdrawals from the coalition. In 2004, a bombing attack in Madrid linked to Islamic extremists helped overturn the political establishment in Spain and the new leadership pulled out the Spanish troops.

By January 2007, the combined non-U.S. contingent had dwindled to just over 14,000. By October 2007, it stood at 20 nations and roughly 11,400 soldiers. …

American combat forces withdrew from Iraq’s urban areas at the end of June and all troops are to withdraw by the end of 2011, according to the agreement. President Barack Obama has ordered the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops by Aug. 31, 2010, leaving roughly 50,000 troops to train and advise Iraqi security forces. …

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago Today — July 31, 2008 

On the Campaign Trail: Day 17

One year ago today, on the 17th day of my campaign campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, I criticized Rep. Bachmann for talking almost exclusively about energy issues such as the price of gasoline in her reelection campaign, while ignoring important national security concerns.

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U.S. Adviser’s Blunt Memo on Iraq: Time ‘to Go Home’

In this handout made available by the Iraqi Prime Minister’s office July 28, 2009, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki (R) shakes hands with U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates at his offices in Baghdad. Gates, on a previously unannounced mission, urged Iraq’s communities to settle political differences before U.S. troops leave by the end of 2011. (Photo credit: AFP / Getty Images)

By Michael R. Gordon

July 31, 2009

Excerpts

WASHINGTON — A senior American military adviser in Baghdad has concluded in an unusually blunt memo that Iraqi forces suffer from entrenched deficiencies but are now able to protect the Iraqi government, and that it is time “for the U.S. to declare victory and go home.” …

Prepared by Col. Timothy R. Reese, an adviser to the Iraqi military’s Baghdad command, the memorandum details Iraqi military weaknesses in scathing language, including corruption, poor management and the inability to resist Shiite political pressure. Extending the American military presence beyond August 2010, he argues, will do little to improve the Iraqis’ military performance while fueling growing resentment of Americans.

“As the old saying goes, ‘Guests, like fish, begin to smell after three days,’ ” Colonel Reese wrote. “Since the signing of the 2009 Security Agreement, we are guests in Iraq, and after six years in Iraq, we now smell bad to the Iraqi nose.”

Those conclusions are not shared by the senior American commander in Iraq, Gen. Ray Odierno, and his recommendation for an accelerated troop withdrawal is at odds with the timetable approved by President Obama. …

Before deploying to Iraq, Colonel Reese served as the director of the Combat Studies Institute at Fort Leavenworth, Kan., the Army’s premier intellectual center. He was an author of an official Army history of the Iraq war — “On Point II” — that was sharply critical of the lapses in postwar planning. …

Colonel Reese’s memo lists a number of problems that have emerged since the withdrawal of American combat troops from Baghdad, completed June 30. They include, he wrote, a “sudden coolness” to American advisers and the “forcible takeover” of a checkpoint in the Green Zone. Iraqi units, he added, are much less willing to conduct joint operations with their American counterparts “to go after targets the U.S. considers high value.” …

Colonel Reese appears to have anonymously circulated a less detailed version of his memo on a blog called “The Enchanter’s Corner.” The author, listed on the site as “Tim the Enchanter,” is described as an active-duty Army officer serving as an adviser in Iraq who is “passionate about political issues.” That post on Iraq, along with one criticizing President Obama’s health care proposals, has been removed but can be found in cached versions. …

[While] General Odierno has drawn up detailed plans for a substantial advisory role, Colonel Reese argued in favor of a more limited — and shorter — effort, and recommended that all American forces be withdrawn by August 2010.

“If there ever was a window where the seeds of a professional military culture could have been implanted, it is now long past,” he wrote. “U.S. combat forces will not be here long enough or with sufficient influence to change it. The military culture of the Baathist-Soviet model under Saddam Hussein remains entrenched and will not change. The senior leadership of the I.S.F. is incapable of change in the current environment.”

Related link

Text of Colonel Timothy Reese’s Memo 

Video

Iraq memo declares victory, stirs controversy (NBC, July 31) — A memo written by Col. Timothy Reese, which urged U.S. military commanders to “declare victory” and leave Iraq, is causing quite a stir amid continued deadly attacks on Iraqi civilians by insurgents. NBC’s Jim Miklaszewski reports. (02:43)

Related report on this site

Iraq Imposes New Limits on U.S. (July 18, 2009)

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8/4/09 Update

U.S. General in Iraq Nixes Early Pullout Plan

Gen. Ray Odierno
(Photo credit: Jim Watson / AFP – Getty Images)

Aug. 4, 2009

RAMADI, Iraq – The top U.S. general in Iraq said Tuesday that he disagrees with a colonel’s memo urging an early troop withdrawal even though the security situation is better than expected since American forces turned over security in urban centers to the Iraqis more than a month ago.

Gen. Ray Odierno, the first senior American official to comment on the memo, told The Associated Press the Americans need to stay the course in Iraq.

The Iraqi security forces face corruption and other problems but “overall it’s gone very, very well,” he said. But, he added, the Americans are still needed to protect security gains.

“Our goal here given us by the president is a secure, stable sovereign self-reliant Iraq. We’re not there yet,” he said in an interview at a U.S. base after meeting with Iraqi officials in the Anbar provincial capital of Ramadi.

Col. Timothy R. Reese, a U.S. Army adviser to the Iraqi military in Baghdad, wrote in his memo that the years-long American effort to train, equip and advise Iraqi security forces has reached a point of rapidly diminishing returns and the U.S. should go home next year, 16 months ahead of schedule. …

Odierno warned the security gains are fragile, saying the No. 1 threat was Kurdish-Arab tensions that could stoke violence in northern Iraq. …

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago Today — July 30, 2008 

On the Campaign Trail: Day 16

One year ago today, on the 16th day of my campaign campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, I attended the St. Cloud area joint town hall meeting with the mayors of St. Cloud, St. Augusta, St. Joseph, Sartell, Sauk Rapids, and Waite Park to learn about the concerns of area civic leaders; and attended the Little Rock Lake TMDL Public Meeting to learn about water quality issues on Little Rock Lake and efforts to mitigate phosphorus, the water quality limiting nutrient responsible for the toxic blue-green algae blooms in the lake.

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Updated September 3, 2009

The Eugene J. McCarthy Center for Public Policy and Civic Engagement at St. John’s University and the College of St. Benedict in Collegeville and St. Joseph, Minn., has announced that former U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), Distinguished Professor in the Practice of National Governance at Georgetown University, will deliver the Third Annual Eugene McCarthy Lecture on Wednesday, September 23, 2009 at 7:30 p.m. in the Stephen B. Humphrey Theater on the campus of St. John’s University in Collegeville.

Photo: Deborah Feingold

Sen. Hagel will address the life of the late Sen. Eugene McCarthy (a 1935 SJU graduate) and discuss issues raised in his recent book with Peter Kaminsky, America: Our Next Chapter — Tough Questions, Straight Answers (Ecco, 2008).

Biographical Note

Chuck Hagel served two terms in the U.S. Senate. In 1968 he served alongside his brother Tom in Vietnam, where both were infantry squad leaders with the U.S. Army’s 9th Infantry Division. Hagel earned several military decorations and honors, including two Purple Hearts.

Book Description

Sen. Chuck Hagel has long been admired by his colleagues on both sides of the Senate floor for his honesty, integrity, and common-sense approach to the challenges of our times. The Los Angeles Times has praised his “bold positions on foreign policy and national security” and wondered, “What’s not to like?” In America: Our Next Chapter, Nebraska-born Hagel offers a hard-hitting examination of the current state of our nation and provides substantial, meaningful proposals that can guide America back onto the right path.

In America: Our Next Chapter, Hagel speaks the truth as he sees it — in a direct and refreshingly unvarnished manner. Basing his suggestions on thorough research and careful thought, as well as on personal insight from his years as a political insider, successful businessman, and decorated war hero, he discusses domestic issues — including the health care crisis, immigration, and Social Security and Medicare reform — and global climate change.

He confronts foreign policy problems that the Bush administration bungled or ignored, including China’s growing economy; control of U.S. debt; India’s and Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities; and Iran’s aggressive political, ideological, and nuclear stances. He decries the pervasive disease of Third World poverty, arguing convincingly that this is where the real fight against terrorism must begin.

Always true to the beliefs instilled in his childhood on the prairie, he speaks passionately about service — to one’s country and to one’s fellow citizens — as the path toward a renewed America. And, of course, he gives a candid examination of the debacle that was the Iraq War.

A staunch Republican … Hagel asks the tough questions and delivers straight answers to America’s most pressing problems. America: Our Next Chapter is a serious, honest, and, ultimately, optimistic look at our nation’s future, from an American original.

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UPDATE: NEWS RELEASE

Sept. 1, 2009

Former Sen. Chuck Hagel delivers Eugene J. McCarthy Lecture

COLLEGEVILLE, Minn. – In 1967-68, Minnesota Sen. Eugene McCarthy opposed President Lyndon Johnson’s policies regarding the Vietnam War – even though McCarthy initially supported the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution that authorized American use of force in Vietnam.

On Aug. 25, 2005, Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel became the first Republican senator to publicly criticize the Iraqi War and call for the withdrawal of American troops – even though Hagel initially supported the use of force in Iraq.

Almost 40 years apart, McCarthy and Hagel spoke out and challenged a U.S. foreign policy position advocated by the sitting president of their own party.

Hagel will deliver the third annual Eugene J. McCarthy Lecture at 7:30 p.m. Wednesday, Sept. 23 at the Stephen B. Humphrey Theater, Saint John’s University. The lecture, which is free and open to the public, is sponsored by The Eugene J. McCarthy Center for Public Policy and Civic Engagement, and is co-sponsored by the SJU University Chair in Critical Thinking.

Hagel, a native of North Platte, Neb., served in the Senate from 1997 to 2009 (he was not a candidate for reelection in 2008). He served on four Senate committees: Foreign Relations; Banking; Housing and Urban Affairs; and Intelligence and Rules.

A graduate of the University of Nebraska-Omaha, Hagel served in Vietnam with the U.S. Army, where he earned two Purple Heart medals. Following his tour of duty, he was a newscaster and talk-show host in Omaha.

His career in Washington began in 1971, when he became an administrative assistant to Nebraska Congressman John McCollister, serving until 1977. Hagel then became manager of government affairs for the Firestone Tire and Rubber Company (1977-80) before returning to the governmental sector as deputy administrator of the U.S. Veterans Administration (1981-82).

After leaving the Veterans Administration, he became an investment banker and business executive in Washington and Omaha. Hagel was named deputy director and chief executive officer of the Economic Summit of Industrialized Nations (G-7) in 1990.

Hagel has also co-written a book, America: Our Next Chapter: Tough Questions, Straight Answers (Ecco Press, 2008), with Peter Kaminsky. Former Secretary of State and retired Gen. Colin Powell said that Hagel “writes with insight, expertise, authority and with the credentials that come from his dedicated service in war and peace.”

The Eugene J. McCarthy Lecture was established in January 2006. McCarthy spent seven years as a student at Saint John’s Preparatory School and University, and nearly one year as a member of the Benedictine community of Saint John’s Abbey.

The lecture series carries on McCarthy’s deep commitment to the ideals and principles of democratic self-government. It seeks to inspire a new generation of young people to pursue fresh ideas, to challenge the status quo, to effect positive change in their communities and, like McCarthy himself, to lead with honesty, integrity and courage.

Past lecturers in the series have included newspaper columnist, author and commentator E.J. Dionne (2007), and civil rights leader Julian Bond (2008).

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Hagel’s Stand

By Robert D. Novak

April 30, 2007

Sen. Chuck Hagel returned from his fifth visit to Iraq to become one of two Republicans to join Senate Democrats in voting Thursday to begin withdrawal of U.S. troops. It was not an easy vote for a conservative GOP regular and faithful supporter of President George W. Bush’s other policies. A few days earlier, Hagel sat down with me and painted a bleak picture of the war and U.S. policy. …

Hagel faces a political paradox as he ponders a career decision — whether to run for president, to seek reelection next year or to get out of elective politics. His harsh assessment resonates with many Republicans who believe Bush’s war policy has led the party to disaster. …

Hagel certainly is no peace-now zealot. “We’re not going to precipitously pull out,” he told me. “We have [national] interests in Iraq.” While he asserted that “we can’t get out by the end of the year,” he called for “pulling some of our guys out — not all of them, but you’ve got to get them out of [Baghdad] at least, get them out of the middle of civil war.” If not, Hagel said, “then the prospects of the Republican Party are very dim next year.”

What about claims by proponents of the Iraqi intervention that failure to stop the terrorists in Iraq will open the door to them in the American homeland?

“That’s nonsense,” Hagel replied. “I’ve never believed that. That’s the same kind of rhetoric and thinking that neocons used to get us into this mess and everything that [Donald] Rumsfeld, [Paul] Wolfowitz, [Richard] Perle, [Douglas] Feith and the vice president all said. Nothing turned out the way they said it would.”

It is “nonsense,” Hagel said, because “Iraq is not embroiled in a terrorist war today.” Hagel, a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, cited “national intelligence” attributing “maybe 10 percent” of the insurgency and violence to al-Qaeda. Indeed, he described Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds as opposed to al-Qaeda: “They don’t like the terrorists. What’s happened in Anbar province is the tribes are finally starting to connect with us because al-Qaeda started killing some of their leadership and threatening their people. So the tribes now are at war with al-Qaeda.”

“So,” said Hagel, “when I hear people say, ‘Well, if we leave them to that, it will be chaos’ — what do you think is going on now? Scaring the American people into this blind alley is so dangerous.”

These judgments come from someone credited with rebuilding Nebraska’s Republican Party and who has earned a lifetime conservative voting rating of 85.2 percent from the American Conservative Union. Hagel represents millions of Republicans who are repelled by the Democrats’ personal assault on President Bush but are deeply unhappy about his course in Iraq.

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Hagel’s Dilemma

By Kelley Beaucar Vlahos
The American Conservative
April 9, 2007

Excerpt

Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.) on his vote for the 2002 Senate resolution authorizing the president to go to war in Iraq:

“I laid out all of my reservations about the resolution,” he said, referring to his Oct. 9, 2002 floor speech. “In the end, I voted for it because I was told by the administration that the president would not use military force unless all diplomatic options were exercised — they were not — but I think it’s always dangerous not to give your president leverage and latitude, allowing him to deal with the international arena with unlimited powers.”

“Would I vote for it today? No, I wouldn’t,” he added flatly. “We went into Iraq based on flawed judgment, based on dishonest motives, based on flawed intelligence, and we have a very, very big problem today.” …

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Related report on this site

Hagel Lambasts Limbaugh (Nov. 19, 2008)

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Full disclosure

In 2006, I joined Charlie Hinderliter’s grassroot movement to encourage Sen. Chuck Hagel to run for president. Below is an example of the kind of promotional material disseminated by another “Draft Hagel” group, United We Stand, Divided We Fall.

After Barack Obama clinched the Democratic nomination, I held out hope that Chuck Hagel would be tapped as his vice-presidential running made. I remain hopeful that President Obama will nominate Sen. Hagel to succeed Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense.

Read Sen. Hagel’s Washington Post op-ed, “The limits of force” (Sept. 3, 2009).

Purple Heart

FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago Today — July 29, 2008 

On the Campaign Trail: Day 15

One year ago today, on the 15th day of my campaign campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, I reported on an op-ed dealing with energy prices that I had written for the St. Cloud Times the previous day; met with Stearns County Sheriff John Sanner and Emergency Manager Marvin Klug to learn more about important local law enforcement and public safety concerns; announced the release of a new web video in which I discuss my core campaign issues; and challenged unendorsed Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson’s justification for the Iraq war.

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U.S. Military Deaths in Iraq 

As of Tuesday, July 28, 2009, at least 4,329 members of the U.S. military had died in the Iraq war since it began in March 2003, according to an Associated Press count. …

Since the start of U.S. military operations in Iraq, 31,454 U.S. service members have been wounded in hostile action, according to the Defense Department’s weekly tally. …

Latest identifications: 

• Army Spc. Herberth A. Berrios-Campos, 21, Bealeton, Va., died July 24, 2009 in Salman Pak, Iraq, of injuries sustained from a non-combat related incident. He was assigned to the 1st Battalion 505th Parachute Infantry Regiment, 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 82nd Airborne Division, Fort Bragg, N.C.

U.S. Military Deaths in Afghanistan 

As of Monday, July 27, 2009, at least 680 members of the U.S. military had died in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Uzbekistan as a result of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001, according to the Defense Department. …

Latest identifications: 

• Marine Pfc. Donald W. Vincent, 26, Gainesville, Fla., died July 25, 2009 of wounds sustained while supporting combat operations in Helmand province, Afghanistan. He was assigned to 2nd Battalion, 8th Marine Regiment, 2nd Marine Division, II Marine Expeditionary Force, Camp Lejeune, N.C.
• Army Spc. Justin D. Coleman, 21, Spring Hill, Fla., died July 24, 2009 in Nuristan Province, Afghanistan, of wounds suffered when enemy forces attacked his unit using small arms and rocket-propelled grenade fire. He was assigned to the 1^st Battalion, 32^nd Infantry Regiment, 3^rd Brigade Combat Team, 10^th Mountain Division (Light Infantry), Fort Drum, N.Y.
• Marine Sgt. Ryan H. Lane, 25, Pittsburgh, Pa., died July 23, 2009 of wounds suffered while supporting combat operations in Helmand province, Afghanistan. He was assigned to the 2nd Light Armored Reconnaissance Battalion, 2nd Marine Division, II Marine Expeditionary Force, Camp Lejeune, N.C.
• Army Spc. Randy L. J. Neff, Jr., 22, Blackfoot, Idaho, died July 22, 2009 in Zabul Province, Afghanistan, of wounds suffered when an improvised explosive device detonated near his vehicle. He was assigned to the 4th Engineer Battalion, Fort Carson, Colo.
• Army Sgt. Joshua J. Rimer, 24, Rochester, Pa., died July 22, 2009 in Zabul Province, Afghanistan, of wounds suffered when an improvised explosive device detonated near his vehicle. He was assigned to the 4th Engineer Battalion, Fort Carson, Colo.
• Georgia Army National Guard Spc. Raymundo P. Morales, 34, Dalton, Ga., died July 21, 2009 in Methar Lam, Afghanistan, of injuries sustained during a vehicle roll-over. He was assigned to the 148th Brigade Support Battalion, Cedartown, Ga.
• Army Spc. Anthony M. Lightfoot, 20, Riverdale, Ga., died July 20, 2009 in Wardak Province, Afghanistan, of wounds suffered when an improvised explosive device detonated near his vehicle followed by an attack from enemy forces using small arms and rocket-propelled grenade fire. He were assigned to the 4th Battalion, 25th Field Artillery (STRIKE), 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry), Fort Drum, N.Y.
• Army Sgt. Gregory Owens, Jr., 24, Garland, Texas., died July 20, 2009 in Wardak Province, Afghanistan, of wounds suffered when an improvised explosive device detonated near his vehicle followed by an attack from enemy forces using small arms and rocket-propelled grenade fire. He were assigned to the 4th Battalion, 25th Field Artillery (STRIKE), 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry), Fort Drum, N.Y.
• Army Pfc. Dennis J. Pratt, 34, Duncan, Okla., died July 20, 2009 in Wardak Province, Afghanistan, of wounds suffered when an improvised explosive device detonated near his vehicle followed by an attack from enemy forces using small arms and rocket-propelled grenade fire. He were assigned to the 4th Battalion, 25th Field Artillery (STRIKE), 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry), Fort Drum, N.Y.
• Army Spc. Andrew J. Roughton, 21, Houston, Texas., died July 20, 2009 in Wardak Province, Afghanistan, of wounds suffered when an improvised explosive device detonated near his vehicle followed by an attack from enemy forces using small arms and rocket-propelled grenade fire. He were assigned to the 4th Battalion, 25th Field Artillery (STRIKE), 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 10th Mountain Division (Light Infantry), Fort Drum, N.Y.

Remember Their Sacrifice

Related links

Iraq Casualties

Afghanistan Casualties 

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago Today — July 28, 2008 

On the Campaign Trail: Day 14

One year ago today, on the 14th day of my campaign campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, I said voters should see the Iraq war not only as a national security or foreign policy issue, but as a pocketbook issue, in that the war and occupation contributed to driving up the price of oil by weakening the dollar.

In that context, I pointed to a Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction report detailing billions of dollars lost on construction projects in Iraq. I also noted a mass-casualty tripple suicide bombing in Baghdad, carried out by female suicide bombers.

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Election 2010 Outlook in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District

By Aubrey Immelman
July 27, 2009

Part I: The Political Environment

This is the first in a two-part series examining the outlook for the 2010 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann.

Part I surveys the political environment in which the contest will take place. Part II, to follow closer to the election, will take a look at the candidates.

Party-political affiliation

The first and by far the primary consideration with respect to predicting election outcome is party-political affiliation. In presidential elections, roughly 90 percent of voters vote their party-political identification.

However, in congressional districts, party-line voting is somewhat less robust as a predictor, with a candidate’s personal qualities and other unique factors occasionally playing a significant role. A local example is Blue Dog Democrat Collin Peterson of Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District – the state’s most solidly Republican district after the 6th – who won reelection with about 70 percent of the vote in the last two election cycles.

So, how Republican is Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District? 

The Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI), a measure of how strongly an American congressional district or state leans toward one political party compared with the nation as a whole, rates the 6th District as Republican-leaning with a CPVI of R+7.

The index is derived by averaging a district’s results from the previous two presidential elections and comparing them with national results. The 6th District’s index indicates that the Republican Party’s presidential candidate (R) was significantly more successful in the district than his Democratic opponent in the past two elections, exceeding the national average by seven percentage points (+7).

Specifically, John McCain beat Barack Obama 53.3 percent to 44.6 percent in 2008 and George W. Bush beat John Kerry 57 percent to 42 percent in 2004.

The ceiling level of support for a Democratic candidate in terms of party-political affiliation in the 6th District in a best-case scenario is reflected in a SurveyUSA poll conducted October 20-21, 2008 in the immediate aftermath of incumbent U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s October 17 fiasco on MSNBC “Hardball” with Chris Matthews. In that poll, Democratic nominee Elwyn Tinklenberg led Bachmann 47 percent to 44 percent, with 6 percent support for unendorsed Independence Party (IP) candidate Bob Anderson and 2 percent undecided.

Looking at the internals of the poll, Tinklenberg drew the support of 87 percent of self-identified Democratic respondents, 15 percent of self-identified Republicans, and 51 percent of self-identified independents. By comparison, Bachmann drew the support of 79 percent of self-identified Republicans, 8 percent of self-identified Democrats, and 35 percent of self-identified independent respondents. (Anderson was favored by 12 percent of independents, 4 percent of Republicans, and 3 percent of the Democratic respondents.)

The poll results suggest that for a Democrat to win in the 6th, that candidate has to retain the support of nearly 90 percent of Democratic voters, win more than 50 percent of the independent vote, and take around 15 percent of the Republican vote.

Those numbers may be difficult to attain in an actual election; the SurveyUSA poll was conducted at the worst possible time for Bachmann, in the wake of a national controversy yielding overwhelmingly negative press in the midst of a wave election year for Democrats.

In terms of party-political affiliation, the bottom line is that any Democratic candidate is at a serious disadvantage in Minnesota’s 6th District, where Republican congressional candidate Mark Kennedy defeated Democratic contender Janet Robert by 22.2 points in 2002 and Patty Wetterling by 8.1 points in 2004; George W. Bush beat John Kerry by 14.4 points in 2004; Tim Pawlenty bested Democrat Mike Hatch by 18.6 points in the 2006 gubernatorial race; and John McCain beat Barack Obama by 8.7 points in 2008.

Past voter behavior as a predictor

Another consideration in election-outcome prediction is past voter behavior. Even though this variable is highly correlated with party-political identification, it does yield additional insights.

Bachmann received 50.1 percent of the vote in a three-way race when she was first elected in 2006 and 46.4 percent of the vote in another three-way race when she ran for reelection as a first-term incumbent in 2008. The 46-percent number is probably a worst-case scenario for Bachmann, given that the election was held a couple of weeks after her “Hardball” fiasco and considering that 2008 was the worst election year for Republicans in decades, with Barack Obama at the top of the ticket to help get out the Democratic vote. That will not be the case in 2010.

Averaging the results in the past two 6th District congressional elections in which Bachmann was a candidate yields the following means: Bachmann, 48.3 percent; Democratic candidate, 42.8 percent; Independence Party candidate, 8.9 percent. In a counterfactual scenario in which those numbers are converted to a hypothetical two-way race in which two-thirds of the IP vote goes to the Democratic candidate and one-third to Bachmann, Bachmann still beats the Democrat, by about 51 percent to 49 percent.

Personal qualities of the candidate

As noted earlier, a candidate’s personal qualities occasionally trumps party-political affiliation as an election-outcome predictor in congressional races. Indeed, that seems to be a significant, though secondary, factor in the 6th District, where Bachmann has consistently underperformed relative to Republican presidential candidates. In 2008, Bachmann gained just 46.4 percent of the vote, compared with McCain’s 54.3 percent. When she was first elected, in 2006, Bachmann won 50 percent of the vote, significantly less than Bush’s 57 percent two years earlier, in 2004.

However, these numbers should be interpreted with caution, because third-party candidates have traditionally played a much more prominent role in 6th District congressional elections than in presidential elections. In that regard, it’s instructive to examine the performance of Democratic candidates as well for purposes of comparison.

In 2008, Democratic candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg gained 43.4 percent of the vote, compared with Obama’s 44.6 percent. In 2004, Patty Wetterling got 46 percent of the vote in a two-way race, compared with 42 percent for John Kerry.

The fact that, unlike Bachmann, Democratic candidates have not underperformed relative to their party’s presidential candidate suggests that the “personal qualities” factor – Bachmann’s qualities, not the Democrat’s – does play a role on the margins in 6th District congressional elections. Stated differently, Bachmann performs significantly worse in the 6th District than would be expected of a Republican candidate.

The best evidence of the potentially key role of personal qualities in electoral success is provided by U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, the only Democrat ever at any level to outperform a Republican in the 6th District. In 2006, Klobuchar beat 6th District incumbent Rep. Mark Kennedy by a 4.8-point margin in his bid for Senate, 50.5 percent to 45.7 percent, with 3.2 percent going to IP candidate Robert Fitzgerald.

What does that tell us? It vividly illustrates that to have any hope of beating Bachmann Democrats will have to field a candidate with the personal qualities of an Amy Klobuchar. In common political jargon, that translates to personal “charisma.”

Some structural considerations

In part because many congressional districts have been effectively gerrymandered by political parties, approximately 96-97 percent of U.S. House of Representatives incumbents are reelected. As a second-term incumbent, Bachmann is strongly favored to retain her seat in 2010.

Nonetheless, most political analysts regard Bachmann as vulnerable, because of her small 3-point margin of victory in 2008 in combination with her failure to win more than 50 percent of the vote.

But exactly how vulnerable is Bachmann? One heuristic for discerning that is to establish the strength of her electoral base – those voters who will support her now matter what.

Looking back at poll numbers in the past two election cycles, with the exception of a couple of outliers early in the 2006 and 2008 races, Bachmann’s support has consistently held above 42 percent. I consider that her “floor level” of support. Stated differently, absent a serious scandal or criminal offense, Bachmann is virtually assured of 42 percent of the vote in a Sixth District congressional race (though in reality she has never won less than 46 percent of the vote).

The strongest performance by a Democrat in a three-way race against Bachmann is Tinklenberg’s 43.3 percent against Bachmann in 2008.

That has important practical implications. If support for Bachmann can be stripped down to her electoral base and the Democratic candidate can match Tinklenberg’s 43 percent of the vote, it would be possible for the Democrat to win even if the IP candidate takes as much as 15 percent of the vote (equivalent to IP candidate Dean Barkley’s share of the statewide vote in the 2008 U.S. Senate election opposite Democrat Al Franken and Republican incumbent Norm Coleman).

For historical perspective on the strength of the IP in 6th District congressional races, Dan Becker won 7.5 percent of the vote in 2002; John Binkowski gained 7.8 percent in 2006; and in 2008 Bob Anderson got 10% of the vote. The performance of third-party candidates in the 6th appears to be trending upward. Realistically, it’s difficult to see any plausible scenario in which a Democrat beats Bachmann with a third-party name on the ballot.

Some Democrats have accused the IP of playing a “spoiler” role in 6th District congressional races, throwing the race to the Republican candidate. However, as long as the IP enjoys major-party status in Minnesota (winning at least 5 percent of the vote in statewide races), it’s easy to get ballot access on the IP line. Thus, it’s simply realistic to assume that someone will file as an IP candidate in the 2010 election, whether he or she has the IP endorsement or not – and prospective Democratic candidates should plan accordingly.

Another complicating factor for Democratic hopefuls is the historical tendency for the party that wins the White House to lose seats in the first subsequent mid-term election. (Recall the 1994 “Republican revolution” during President Bill Clinton’s first term.) That suggests that it would be more, not less difficult for a Democrat to beat Bachmann in 2010 than it was in 2008 with Obama’s landslide Electoral College victory.

The trend toward the minority party in the wake of the Democratic sweep in the 2008 election is already evident in Minnesota. Eric Ostermeier of Smart Politics, the blog of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, reports that the latest monthly SurveyUSA poll finds more Minnesota residents identifying as Republicans than at any point in more than four years. The poll of 600 adults statewide, conducted July 17-19, also finds Republicans now match the Democrats in party ID for the first time since October 2005. 

Finally, one of the most enduring factors in election outcomes is the economy, with the party controlling the White House getting punished at the ballot box when the economy is bad. (Recall the 1992 Clinton slogan, “[It's] the Economy, Stupid.”) Stated bluntly, the outcome of the 2010 congressional race may hinge on the success or failure of President Obama’s economic recovery program.

Thus, for a Democrat to beat Bachmann, the economy in November 2010 will have to be broadly perceived as improving, with Obama and the Democratic Congress receiving much of the credit. On the contrary, if the economy remains in recession, Democratic candidates will pay a price at the polls and Bachmann will reap the rewards of opposing not only Obama’s economic proposals, but Bush’s bailouts as well. 

Up Next: Part II — The Candidates

Dr. Maureen Reed, Rep. Michele Bachmann, and state Sen. Tarryl Clark (Photo collage: MinnPost)

Strong start for Clark, but Reed makes her pitch to take on Bachmann (Eric Black, MinnPost, Oct. 2, 2009)

Related reports

Immelman: The voting patterns in the Sixth District, and why Bachmann gets elected 

Why Bachmann wins: 8 reasons

Why She Wins

Bill Prendergast responds to people from other parts of the country who ask him questions such as these: ”What is wrong with you people? They have footage of [Bachmann] lying on television, how can this nut even be taken seriously?”

Excerpt: We send stuff to the [local] press, letters, calls for corrections, documented evidence of her craziest statements and lies — the professional press and the big papers don’t run it. We’ve been putting it on the Web for years; they won’t go near it. Not one journalist in a big local newspaper is willing to report the crazy [expletive] that she’s said over the years on local conservative and evangelical radio. …

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Related reports on this site

Democratic Reality Check in 2010? (Aug. 22, 2009)

Building a Non-Partisan Coalition (Aug. 5, 2009)

Bachmann Rated ‘Most Vulnerable’ (July 24, 2009)

Bachmann Faces Two-Front Fight (July 16, 2009) 

MN-06: Who is ‘The Third Man’? (May 24, 2009)

Tinklenberg Challenger Speaks (May 13, 2009)

How to Beat Bachmann (May 9, 2009) 

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9/9/09 Update

Michele Bachmann: History is on her side

Eric Ostermeier of “Smart Politics” (the blog of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs), in an analysis of more than 560 U.S. House of Representatives contests in Minnesota since statehood, found that just 12.7 percent of incumbents who appeared on the general election ballot failed to win reelection. For 2-term incumbents, like Rep. Michele Bachmann, 88.2 percent have won a third consecutive term.

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10/28/09 Update

Congresswoman Bachmann continues to develop national celebrity

ECM Capitol reporter T.W. Budig reports that U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann is in the ascendancy as a new face of the Republican Party nationally, having become a regular on cable television and generating more Google name search returns than many longer-serving members of Congress.

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2/18/10 Update

Bachmann, Paulsen increasingly likely to hold their seats, D.C. analyst says

Derek Wallbank, reporting for MinnPost in “D.C. Dispatches,” writes: Reps. Michele Bachmann [MN-06] and Erik Paulsen [MN-03] are increasingly likely to hold on to their seats this November thanks to an increasingly pro-Republican national climate, according to an analysis of House races released today by the Cook Political Report. … Bachmann is now rated as “Likely” to hold her seat, an upgrade in safety from “Lean.” Paulsen was moved to “Solid” from “Likely.” …

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago Today — July 27, 2008

On the Campaign Trail: Day 13

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Report: North Korea Willing to Hold Talks with U.S.

July 25, 2009

SEOUL, South Korea – North Korea has indicated its interest in holding direct talks with the United States, a news report said, after the two sides traded barbs over Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons programs at a security forum.

“We are not against a dialogue. We are not against any negotiation for the issues of common concern,” Japan’s Kyodo news agency quoted North Korean ambassador to the United Nations Sin Son Ho as saying Friday.

But the ambassador, speaking in New York, dismissed the possibility of a return to stalled nuclear negotiations involving the two Koreas, the U.S., Japan, China and Russia, saying “the six-party talks are gone forever.”

The U.S. has offered to hold talks with the North within the six-nation process if it returns to the negotiating table and takes irreversible steps for denuclearization.

Last weekend, Assistant U.S. Secretary of State Kurt Campbell indicated that the chances for direct talks between North Korea and the U.S. were slim. “Our bilateral negotiations are between the U.S. and South Korea about our collective approach” to the North, Campbell told reporters in Seoul. …

North Korea quit the nuclear talks in April to protest a U.N. statement condemning a rocket launch. North Korea insisted it sent a satellite into orbit, while the U.S. and its allies said it was actually a long-range missile test.

North Korea conducted its second nuclear test in May and a barrage of missile tests in July, drawing international condemnation and new U.N. sanctions. …

The U.S. and North Korea engaged in a sharp war of words earlier this week over U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton’s recent comment likening the regime in Pyongyang to “small children” demanding attention.

At a regional security conference in Thailand, Clinton also said the North “has no friends left.”

North Korea’s Foreign Ministry described her Thursday as “a funny lady” who sometimes “looks like a primary schoolgirl and sometimes a pensioner going shopping.”

North Korea Escalates War of Words, Calls Clinton Vulgar, Unintelligent

By Glenn Kessler

July 24, 2009

PHUKET, Thailand, July 23 — The war of words between North Korea and the United States escalated Thursday, with North Korea’s Foreign Ministry lashing out at Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton in unusually personal terms for “vulgar remarks” that it said demonstrated “she is by no means intelligent.”

Clinton, who this week likened North Korea to an unruly child, has rallied international isolation of North Korea at a 27-member regional security forum here. She met with her Russian, Chinese, South Korean and Japanese counterparts — the other key partners in suspended six-nation disarmament talks on North Korea — and won strong statements of support from many delegations. …

“There is no place to go for North Korea,” Clinton told reporters after reading a nearly seven-minute statement outlining U.S. policy on North Korea. “They have no friends left.”

North Korean officials also are attending the conference hosted by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on this resort island. In a comical scene, North Korean officials showed up at a news conference venue that had been set up for Clinton, who as usual was running late. Although the North Koreans had booked the space, they retreated to a nearby hallway to meet with reporters and denounce the United States.

“The six-party talks are over,” spokesman Ri Hung Sik said, because of the “deep-rooted anti-North Korean policy” of the United States. [AP Video] North Korea rarely holds media events, so the decision to speak to reporters was significant. [AP video: N. Korea says nuclear talks are 'over']

Clinton and other U.S. officials said the North Korean delegation made similar belligerent statements at the conference. “In their presentation today, they evinced no willingness to pursue the path of denuclearization, and that was troubling,” Clinton said.

The Foreign Ministry statement attacking Clinton also amply demonstrated the North Korean mood.

“We cannot but regard Mrs. Clinton as a funny lady as she likes to utter such rhetoric, unaware of the elementary etiquette in the international community,” a Foreign Ministry spokesman said, according to North Korean media. “Sometimes she looks like a primary schoolgirl and sometimes a pensioner going shopping.”

The fit of pique was apparently inspired by an interview Clinton gave ABC News while visiting New Delhi this week.

“What we’ve seen is this constant demand for attention,” Clinton said. “And maybe it’s the mother in me or the experience that I’ve had with small children and unruly teenagers and people who are demanding attention — don’t give it to them, they don’t deserve it, they are acting out.”

The Obama administration came into office with hopes that it could restart the talks that broke down in the final days of the Bush administration. President George W. Bush, who had originally taken a hard line, made substantial concessions to Pyongyang after it first tested a nuclear weapon in 2006. Last year, he removed North Korea from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, but the talks faltered nonetheless.

President Obama appointed a special envoy for negotiations with the hope of rebuilding the process. But after North Korea tested ballistic missiles and a nuclear weapon, the Obama team shifted course, viewing North Korea as a test case to demonstrate that substantial sanctions could be imposed on nuclear rogues while still holding out the promise of a better relationship. The administration even resurrected a demand for “irreversible” steps on denuclearization, language that had been banned by the State Department toward the end of Bush’s term. …

Michael J. Green, the former top Asia adviser to Bush, said Clinton’s statement was “a comprehensive and well-balanced statement of North Korea strategy,” noting that she also highlighted human rights abuses by North Korea and said she would name a special human rights envoy for North Korea. “The inclusion of human rights issues is important and striking, given some of the administration’s recent hesitation about raising these issues around the world,” he said. …

The Obama administration, however, insists it will not drop the sanctions, as Bush did, to win Pyongyang’s cooperation.

“We are open to talks with North Korea. But we are not interested in half-measures,” Clinton said. “We do not intend to reward the North just for returning to the table.”

Related report: Well, better barbs than bombs, eh?

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Kim Jong-Il Threat Assessment

Political Psychological Profile of Kim Jong-Il

By Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D.

Excerpt

A remote psychological assessment of North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il was conducted. … In summary, Kim Jong-Il may be characterized as fraudulent, self-indulgent, and conflict averse — preferring guile, craft, and cunning rather than force or confrontation in extracting or extorting from others what he considers his due; he is not a “malignant narcissist.”

The major political implications of the study are the following: First, although North Korea’s military capability undeniably poses a legitimate threat to regional stability, any claim by Kim Jong-Il with regard to his military capabilities are not to be taken at face value, but should be called into question and verified; second, Kim is relatively conflict averse and unlikely to employ military force without provocation; and third, Kim is relatively open to influence by carefully crafted diplomatic and economic means subjectively perceived as bolstering his self-serving ambitions.

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago Today — July 26, 2008 

On the Campaign Trail: Day 12 

One year ago today, on the 12th day of my 2008 campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, I traveled to Minneapolis to tape an interview with Ken Avidor for The UpTake, focusing on my background, my reasons for running, and my core issues of national security, law enforcement/public safety, and border security/illegal migration. 

In discussing national security, I remarked on lost opportunities after 9/11, specifically the ill-conceived invasion of Iraq, which turned a country that had been militarily contained and led by a dictator hostile to Iran and to Islamic fundamentalism — both Shi’ite extremism and al-Qaida’s brand of radical Islam — into a foreign policy nightmare that has consumed our domestic political agenda and squandered our finite resources for more than five years. 

I wrote on my blog that whatever happens in Iraq, the incoming administration in Washington would face a situation in Iraq more fraught with danger in 2009 than did the Bush administration when it took office in January 2001.

I also lamented that for the foreseeable future the American people would see hundreds of billions of taxpayer dollars pumped into the rebuilding and restabilization of Iraq.

I noted that al-Qaida which had no significant presence in Iraq prior to the March 2003 U.S. invasion would continue to pose a threat in post-Saddam Iraq, though not as lethal as it was before the “Sunni Awakening,” the 2007 troop buildup, and the successful counterinsurgency strategy instituted by Gen. David Petraeus. 

Finally, I expressed concern that the anti-American Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr would bide his time until the eventual withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, with the intent of turning Iraq into a Shi’ite fundamentalist theocracy along Iranian lines after the U.S. leaves Iraq.

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Suicide Attackers Strike Southeast Afghan City

An Afghan police officer look at a guard post damaged in an attack in Khost, east of Kabul, Afghanistan, on Saturday, July 25, 2009. (Photo credit: Nishanuddin Khan / AP)

July 25, 2009

KABUL – For the second time in a week, Taliban fighters armed with suicide vests and automatic weapons attacked a provincial capital in eastern Afghanistan on Saturday, triggering hours-long gunbattles that left seven militants dead, officials said. …

The assault in Khost began when at least six Taliban fighters carrying AK-47s and rocket-propelled grenades stormed the area around the main police station and a nearby government-run bank. All were shot and killed before they could detonate their suicide vests, the Interior Ministry said in a statement.

A  seventh attacker detonated a car rigged with explosives near a police rapid reaction force, wounding two policemen, the ministry said.

Interior Ministry spokesman Zemeri Bashary said all the attackers were killed, but the Defense Ministry later said an eighth attacker may have escaped. The ministry said no government forces were killed but 14 people were wounded — 11 civilians and three police.

The attack came five days after Taliban militants launched near-simultaneous assaults in Gardez, about 50 miles northwest of Khost, and in the eastern city of Jalalabad. Six Afghan police and intelligence officers and eight militants died in the two attacks. …

U.S. troops helped provide security during the Khost attack but were not involved in the battle. …

Also Saturday, a British soldier was killed by a roadside bomb in Helmand province, the focus of major offensives by U.S. and British forces. The soldier was the 20th British service member killed in Afghanistan this month and the 189th since the war began in 2001.

Fighting has increased sharply in Afghanistan this month after President Barack Obama ordered thousands more U.S. troops to the country, shifting the focus of the war against Muslim extremism from Iraq.

At least 66 international troops have died in July, the bloodiest month of the nearly eight-year war.

Related reports

Bomb attack kills 2 U.S. troops in Afghanistan

As deaths rise, so do doubts on Afghan war

Friends of slain serviceman Jimmy Backhouse react as hearses carrying the bodies of eight British soldiers killed during a 24-hour period in Afghanistan pass mourners on July 14 in Wootton Bassett, England. (Photo credit: Simon Dawson / AP file)

Bin Laden son thought killed in Pakistan

Video

Report: Son of bin Laden killed (NBC Nightly News, July 23) — A son of Osama bin Laden — the third eldest son of his 17 children — was reported to have been killed in Pakistan by a U.S. missile strike. NBC’s Brian Williams reports. (00:23) 

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago Today — July 25, 2008 

On the Campaign Trail: Day 11 

One year ago today, on the 11th day of my 2008 campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, I reported back on a local “Know Your Rights” immigrant forum that had raised concern among some residents.

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Bachmann … on GOP’s Most-Vulnerable-Incumbents List

U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (Photo: Huffington Post)

By Paul Schmelzer
The Minnesota Independent
July 23, 2009

The National Republican Congressional Committee has added another Minnesota representative to its list of most vulnerable incumbents for 2010: Rep. Michele Bachmann joins Rep. Erik Paulsen in the NRCC’s “Patriot Program,” Roll Call reports.

The NRCC announced it is adding 15 more candidates to its fundraising program, bumping the total count of incumbents to 25. Bachmann’s addition means she’ll compete to make a final cut of 10 candidates who’ll participate in the next “Patriot Day,” a one-day fundraiser that brought in almost $100,000 last time it was held, in June.

[...]

The Swing State Project states that Bachmann is in “real danger” next election; she’s among three “Patriot Program” members elected with the lowest margin of victory in 2008 — three percentage points or less.

11/14/09 Update

Poll: Bachmann Approval at 51% (Nov. 14, 2009)

A Minnesota survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted November 10, 2009 by Rasmussen Reports, found Rep. Michele Bachmann’s statewide job approval rating to be 51 percent, with 45 percent disapproving and 4 percent not sure. (Bachmann’s job approval likely is considerably stronger in her own district, which is the most Republican of Minnesota’s eight congressional districts.) One year before the 2010 midterm election, Bachmann appears much less vulnerable than she did in the first months after her 2008 reelection to a second term in Congress. 

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In a reader comment posted July 23, 2009 at 11:29 p.m. on the comment thread for the Minnesota Independent article excerpted above, Traci Baker observes: 

I’m from Canada, and my husband and I regularly read Michelle Bachmann’s nonsense on the internet or we catch her on cable news. She is a disgrace pure and simple! Luckily we live close enough to the U.S. that we know her view isn’t shared by many. Unfortunately, the wordwide view of Americans is tarnished because of people like her and GWB. Fortunately, President Obama has begun to restore the sheen …… cheers and good luck in 2010!

I reference the above reader comment, because contemporaneously a new poll provides empirical evidence that the international image of the United States is beginning to mend after a steep decline associated with the U.S. invasion of Iraq:

Poll: U.S. image abroad surges under Obama (AP, June 23, 2009) — A survey of 25 nations conducted by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center has found that positive public attitudes toward the United States have surged in many parts of the world since President Barack Obama’s election. Positive opinions about the United States have returned to higher levels not seen since before President George W. Bush took office in 2001. The Bush presidency marked a steep decline in U.S. popularity overseas, notably after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, because of a perception that the post-9/11 war on terrorism was targeted at Muslims. …

FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago Today — July 24, 2008 

On the Campaign Trail: Day 10

One year ago today, on the 10th day of my 2008 campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, I met with residents on Little Rock Lake, near Rice in Benton County, to learn about the lake’s persistent water quality problems.

Aubrey Immelman meets with Little Rock Lake resident Nancy Carver to discuss water quality issues at Little Rock Lake, July 24, 2008.

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Obama: U.S. On Track for 2011 Iraq Pullout

President Barack Obama and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki make joint statements during a press availability, Wednesday, July 22, 2009, in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington. (Photo credit: Ron Edmonds / AP)

July 22, 2009

WASHINGTON – President Barack Obama said Wednesday the United States will stick to its schedule and remove all its troops from Iraq by the end of 2011 even though there will be “tough days ahead.”

Standing in the Rose Garden alongside Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, Obama said the two nations were in the midst of a “full transition” that would be based on mutual interest and respect. …

Obama said the United States does not seek any military bases in Iraq and makes no claim on Iraqi oil resources or territory. …

It was Obama’s first meeting with al-Maliki at the White House. They met in Iraq in April. …

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago Today — July 23, 2008 

On the Campaign Trail: Day Nine

One year ago today, on the ninth day of my 2008 campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, I issued my national security position statement, specifically as it relates to the war in Iraq (see “Issues” tab at the top of the page).

 
Patrick Immelman, 2, of Sartell runs through a field of crosses during a Memorial Day ceremony at the St. Cloud VA Medical Center, May 26, 2008. (Photo credit: Paul Middlestaedt, St. Cloud Times)

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Emergency Declared in Iraq’s Ramadi After Bombings

July 21, 2009

RAMADI, Iraq – Iraq’s western city of Ramadi has declared a state of emergency and imposed a vehicle ban after two bomb attacks on Tuesday, police said, a day after an explosion in the usually quiet city killed two policemen.

A suicide bomber in a moving car and a bomb in a parked car detonated near-simultaneously near a group of restaurants in Ramadi, capital of western Anbar province, killing three people and wounding 13 others, police said. Another police source said one person was killed, but 18 were wounded.

“A state of emergency has been declared in Ramadi because of intelligence there is a third car filled with explosives in the city,” a police officer who declined to be named said.

During a state of emergency more police are deployed, and they conduct greater security checks. A vehicle ban has also been in imposed in Falluja, Anbar’s second city.

The fronts of the restaurants were severely damaged in the Ramadi blasts, and blood stained the ground nearby, a Reuters witness said. The city’s streets emptied and shops had drawn their shutters in fear of another attack, the witness said. …

On Monday, a bomb in a parked car in Ramadi killed two policemen and wounded another when it exploded near a police checkpoint. Last week, a bomb planted in the house of a police captain killed two children in Falluja. …

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Baghdad Bombs Kill 16

 
July 21, 2009

BAGHDAD – Bombs exploded across Baghdad on Tuesday, killing 16 people and wounding dozens, two of the blasts striking the crowded Shi’ite slum of Sadr City, security officials said.

The first Sadr City bomb, apparently targeting day laborers, killed four people and left 39 wounded, said Baghdad security spokesman Qassim al-Moussawi.

Another bomb in the same area of northeastern Baghdad killed three civilians and wounded 15. The slum was once a haven for gunmen loyal to anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, but the militia has now been largely disbanded and splintered.

In Husseiniya, just north of Baghdad, a series of blasts in a popular market killed five people and wounded 28, police said. …

A roadside bomb killed two civilians and wounded 13 others all from the same extended family as they made their way to a funeral in central Baghdad on Tuesday. And a car bomb exploded near a vegetable market, killing two civilians and wounding six others in south Baghdad’s Doura district, police said. …

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago Today — July 22, 2008 

On the Campaign Trail: Day Eight

One year ago today, on the eighth day of my 2008 campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, I reported being inundated with questionnaires from special interest groups. I also addressed the seemingly dim prospects for the Republican Party in the 2008 election and commented that the GOP generally faces a bleak outlook for the foreseeable future (see also “Future of the Republican Party”).

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