Current Events and the Psychology of Politics

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Summary: The Presidential Electability Index (PEI) developed by Aubrey Immelman at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics predicted more than a year ahead of the 2016 presidential election that Donald Trump would win.

Summary: The Personal Electability Index (PEI), which has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996 (prior to Super Tuesday), is at variance with every conventional election-outcome forecasting model (on Election Day 2016). The Personal Electability Index projected in August 2015 that Donald Trump would win the Republican primary and go on to beat either Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in the 2016 presidential election. As polls opened on November 8, 2016, conventional election-outcome forecasting models predicted a comfortable Clinton victory in the Electoral College.