New House Ratings Ride a Republican Tide

By Bob Benenson
CQ–Roll Call Senior Elections Analyst
CQ POLITICS News
May 15, 2010

Excerpts

For the Democrats who control Congress, the outlook for this year’s midterm elections is the evil twin of the one they enjoyed in each of the past two election cycles — as CQ Politics latest race rating revisions underscore.

In 2006 and 2008, Democrats surged in response to the collapse of President George W. Bush‘s popularity, and Republicans had to walk away from many efforts to challenge for what could have been vulnerable Democratic seats.

This year, the voter backlash is against President Barack Obama and his fellow Democrats.

There are now 85 Democratic-controlled House districts rated by CQ Politics in a range from highly to somewhat competitive, and just 19 Republican-held districts that fit the same description.

The latest rating changes are for the 17 races briefly summarized below. …

The ratings … suggest that the GOP has solidified its hold on seats defended by four of its incumbents – Doug Young of Alaska; Erik Paulsen and Michele Bachmann of Minnesota; and Lee Terry of Nebraska — as well as the South Carolina seat left open by retiring Rep. Henry E. Brown Jr. …

Minnesota’s 6th District: Likely Republican (was Leans Republican)

No matter how tough this year turns out to be, Democrats undoubtedly will not yield on their plans to seriously challenge Bachmann, one of the most outspoken and controversial conservative activists on the national scene. But her views, if a bit more colorfully stated than most [link added], are fairly representative of a district, stretching from Twin Cities suburbs to around St. Cloud, that gave 53 percent to McCain in 2008.

After missing by 3 points in their 2008 bid to oust her, the Democrats are likely to face tougher going this year. And state Sen. Tarryl Clark, the candidate of the DFL establishment, faces a stiff challenge in the campaign for the Aug. 10 primary from Maureen Reed, a medical practitioner who ran for lieutenant governor in 2006 as nominee of the states Independence Party. …

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Related reports

CQ: Bachmann race rides “Republican tide” (Mark Sommerhauser, St. Cloud Times “Political Quarry” blog, May 16, 2010)

‘Reeding’ the Tea Leaves in Minnesota’s 6th District
(Emily Cadei, CQ–Roll Call, April 22, 2010)

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Related reports on this site

Image: Ken Avidor — Dump Bachmann / TheUptake

Immelman vs. Bachmann, Round 2 (April 7, 2010)

MN-06 Endorses Conspiracy Nut (March 22, 2010)

MN-06 Poll: Bachmann Approval 53% (Dec. 22 2009)

Poll: Bachmann Approval at 51% (Nov. 14, 2009)

Democratic Reality Check in 2010? (Aug. 22, 2009)

Building a Non-Partisan Coalition (Aug. 5, 2009)

Can a Democrat Beat Bachmann? (July 27, 2009)

Bachmann Rated ‘Most Vulnerable’ (July 24, 2009)

Bachmann Faces Two-Front Fight (July 16, 2009)

MN-06: Who is ‘The Third Man’? (May 24, 2009)

Tinklenberg Challenger Speaks (May 13, 2009)

How to Beat Bachmann (May 9, 2009)

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago — May 17, 2009

Notre Dame graduate Greg Podolej, right, passes activists on the way to his commencement ceremony on the campus of Notre Dame University Sunday, May 17, 2009 in South Bend, Indiana. (Photo credit: Scott Olson / Getty Images)

Barack Obama at Notre Dame

One-year retrospective: One year ago today, I reported on President Barack Obama’s commencement speech at the University of Notre Dame and the anti-abortion protests it prompted.