Rep. Michele Bachmann (Photo: Huffington Post)
By Paul Schmelzer
The Minnesota Independent
July 23, 2009
The National Republican Congressional Committee has added another Minnesota representative to its list of most vulnerable incumbents for 2010: Rep. Michele Bachmann joins Rep. Erik Paulsen in the NRCC’s “Patriot Program,” Roll Call reports.
The NRCC announced it is adding 15 more candidates to its fundraising program, bumping the total count of incumbents to 25. Bachmann’s addition means she’ll compete to make a final cut of 10 candidates who’ll participate in the next “Patriot Day,” a one-day fundraiser that brought in almost $100,000 last time it was held, in June. …
The Swing State Project states that Bachmann is in “real danger” next election; she’s among three “Patriot Program” members elected with the lowest margin of victory in 2008 – three percentage points or less.
In a reader comment posted July 23, 2009 at 11:29 p.m. on the comment thread for the Minnesota Independent article excerpted above, Traci Baker observes:
I’m from Canada, and my husband and I regularly read Michelle Bachmann’s nonsense on the internet or we catch her on cable news. She is a disgrace pure and simple! Luckily we live close enough to the U.S. that we know her view isn’t shared by many. Unfortunately, the wordwide view of Americans is tarnished because of people like her and GWB. Fortunately, President Obama has begun to restore the sheen …… cheers and good luck in 2010!
I reference the above reader comment, because contemporaneously a new poll provides empirical evidence that the international image of the United States is beginning to mend after a steep decline associated with the U.S. invasion of Iraq:
Poll: U.S. image abroad surges under Obama (AP, June 23, 2009) — A survey of 25 nations conducted by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center has found that positive public attitudes toward the United States have surged in many parts of the world since President Barack Obama’s election. Positive opinions about the United States have returned to higher levels not seen since before President George W. Bush took office in 2001. The Bush presidency marked a steep decline in U.S. popularity overseas, notably after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, because of a perception that the post-9/11 war on terrorism was targeted at Muslims. …
Poll: Bachmann approval at 51% (Nov. 14, 2009) — A Minnesota survey of 1,000 likely voters, conducted November 10, 2009 by Rasmussen Reports, found Rep. Michele Bachmann’s statewide job approval rating to be 51 percent, with 45 percent disapproving and 4 percent not sure. (Bachmann’s job approval likely is considerably stronger in her own district, which is the most Republican of Minnesota’s eight congressional districts.) One year before the 2010 midterm election, Bachmann appears much less vulnerable than she did in the first months after her 2008 reelection to a second term in Congress.
By Paul Demko
April 19, 2010
U.S. Reps. Michele Bachmann and Erik Paulsen have been dropped from the Rothenberg Political Report’s list of competitive House races. Previously the the two contests had been rated as “Republican favored.”
Stuart Rothenberg is predicting wide gains for the GOP in November. So far in this election cycle, he has moved 44 contests towards the Republicans, while just four races have become more favorable for Democrats.
“Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen,” Rothenberg writes. “At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.”
By Derek Wallbank
April 16, 2010
WASHINGTON – The districts represented by Michele Bachmann and Erik Paulsen are no longer “in play,” according to analysts at the Rothenberg Report.
The change means that Rothenberg is predicting that no Minnesota districts are in danger of changing hands this fall, and that the delegation will remain stable at five Democrats and three Republicans.
“We don’t get wrapped up into how close races are going to be, just the likelihood of them flipping,” said Nathan Gonzales, Rothenberg’s political editor, in an e-mail explaining the change. “So, just because Bachmann is off the list doesn’t mean she’s going to get 60 percent, we just don’t think Democrats are going to defeat her this time.” …
The upgrade for Bachmann comes a day after she posted a staggering $810,000 haul in the first quarter, giving her $1.53 million cash-on-hand. That doesn’t include the more than $500,000 she’s said to have raised from the recent fundraiser with Sarah Palin, which counted for the second quarter. …
Rothenberg sees Republicans headed for large gains this fall – and it’s entirely possible they could be big enough to seize control of the House.
We are still seven months until the midterm elections, so there is at least some possibility that the landscape could shift or that Democratic attacks on the GOP could keep Republican gains down to a minimum.
Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible.
FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago Today — July 24, 2008
One year ago today, on the 10th day of my 2008 campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, I met with residents on Little Rock Lake, near Rice in Benton County, to learn about the lake’s persistent water quality problems.
Aubrey Immelman meets with Little Rock Lake resident Nancy Carver to discuss water quality issues at Little Rock Lake, July 24, 2008.
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