The 2010 election cycle’s first poll in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District race for U.S. Representative has been released. The survey, conducted December 17-20, 2009, shows 53% of U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s constituents approve of the job she is doing.
Dr. Maureen Reed, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, and Minnesota state Sen. Tarryl Clark
(Photo collage: MinnPost)
Public Policy Polling
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
December 22, 2009
INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen)
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312
Bachmann on Solid Ground [PDF]
Raleigh, N.C. — Michele Bachmann may constantly be generating controversy in the national news, but back at home she finds herself in a solid position politically.
53% of her constituents approve of the job Bachmann is doing to 41% who disapprove.
Opinion about her is strongly polarized along party lines with 86% of Republicans approving of her and 83% of Democrats disapproving, but with independents she finds a positive 51/42 spread.
Tested against a couple of her potential Democratic opponents Bachmann leads Maureen Reed 53-37 and Tarryl Clark 55-37.
Clark’s and Reed’s numbers may improve once voters in the district become more aware of who they are. At this point 68% have no opinion about Clark and 82% don’t know enough about Reed to have formed an opinion.
Likely contributing to Bachmann’s present solid standing in the district is the unpopularity of Barack Obama and the national Democratic brand.
After winning 45% in MN-6 last year, Obama’s approval rating with its voters is now just 39%.
Only 29% of voters there express support for the health care bill that passed the House of Representatives last month, a number equal to the percentage of voters in the district who approve of the job Congressional Democrats are doing.
“Michele Bachmann’s constituents don’t seem to mind her penchant for controversial comments,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.
“Given how poorly national Democrats rate in the district they probably agree with a lot of them.”
PPP surveyed 719 MN-6 voters from December 17th to 20th. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.
If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.
By Tom Jensen
Public Policy Polling
December 22, 2009
Michele Bachmann may be controversial but for now she’s also looking pretty safe for reelection.
53% of Bachmann’s constituents approve of the job she’s doing in Congress to 41% who disapprove. Her numbers certainly reflect her polarizing nature, with 86% of Republicans giving her good marks and 83% of Democrats saying they don’t like her performance. But in a GOP leaning district and with a 51% approval from independents it all adds up to a pretty solid standing.
Tested against her potential 2010 opponents Bachmann leads Tarryl Clark 55-37 and Maureen Reed 53-37. The magnitude of those leads at this stage certainly has a lot to do with the Democrats’ low name recognition, as 82% of voters don’t know enough about Reed to have an opinion of her and 68% say the same of Clark. Bachmann’s leads over them will probably get smaller as they become better known, but she is still over the 50% threshold considered safe for an incumbent.
Aiding Bachmann’s standing is tepid feelings by voters in the district toward Democratic politicians. Barack Obama has only a 39% approval rating there after winning 45% of the vote in the district last year. He’s popular compared to the Democrats in Congress — only 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of them and an equal 29% support the health care bill while 56% are opposed.
37% of voters in the district consider Bachmann’s political views to be ‘extremist’ and 36% think she’s too conservative, suggesting that the constituents who dislike her really dislike her, but most voters seem comfortable with her.
In what’s shaping up to be a Republican year Bachmann’s reelection looks pretty likely.
Full results here [PDF]
St. Cloud Times reporters keep you up to date on the people and policies that make up local, state and national politics.
Posted by Dave Aeikens at 12/22/2009 11:12 AM CST
Posted by Dave Aeikens at 12/22/2009 3:58 PM CST
Dem polling firm: Bachmann solid
(By Jason Hoppin, Pioneer Press Political Animal blog, Dec. 22, 2009)
Poll: Bachmann “in a solid position politically”
(By Charles Mahtesian, Politico, Dec. 22, 2009)
Poll shows Bachmann ‘on solid ground’ vs. Clark or Reed
(By Joe Kimball, MinnPost, Dec. 22, 2009)
Bachmann leads DFL opponents in poll
(By Tom Scheck, MPR Polinaut blog, Dec. 22, 2009)
Poll: Bachmann leads Democratic contenders
(Emily Cadei, Poll Tracker, CQ Politics, Dec. 22, 2009)
Rep Michele Bachmann
By Hart Van Denburg
The Blotter news blog
City Pages (Minneapolis)
December 23, 2009
We’ve said it before, we’ll say it again: Michele Bachmann is crazy like a fox. No matter the gaffe, lie or hypocrisy, she still enjoys a solid majority in the conservative northern suburban district she represents in the U.S. House: Public Policy Polling says she’s in a comfortable lead there over her nearest DFL challengers, Tarryl Clark (55-37 percent) and Maureen Reed (53-37 percent).
Those results prompted crowing in Republican circles, but the results are hardly surprising. The [redistricted] sixth district has been in the GOP column since 2003, and most of those in the new PPP survey identified themselves as either moderate or conservative Republicans. [Note: 36% of respondents identified themselves as Republican, 27% as Democrat, and 38% as independent or other.]
Most of them also said they voted for John McCain and Sarah Palin, don’t think highly of Sens. Amy Klobuchar [actually, 45% approved of Klobchar, 43% disapproved, and 13% were not sure] and Al Franken, don’t think Bachmann’s an extremist, don’t approve of President Barack Obama and disapprove of the health care reform bill nearing passage in Congress.
But there’s more to the poll results than the “Bachmann leads DFLers in new poll” headline. …
[W]hile the two-term congresswoman may be crazy like a fox, she may also be a little too in love with Fox:
Do you think that Michele Bachmann is more focused on advocating for your district in the US House or being a national leader in the conservative movement?
- Advocating for district: 32 percent
- Leader in national conservative movement: 48 percent
- Not sure: 20 percent
Poll: Majority of Minnesotans ‘Embarrassed’ by Bachmann
(By Paul Schmelzer, The Minnesota Independent, Feb. 12, 2010)
By Katie Lynn
July 13, 2010
The first significant poll in the 6th District Congressional race contains good news for Michele Bachmann but it also gives Tarryl Clark reason to hope she can make a breakthrough in a tough district for Democrats.
The results of our exclusive KSTP/SurveyUSA poll show Republican Michele Bachmann with a significant lead, but with Democrat Tarryl Clark within striking distance.
In the poll conducted Friday through Sunday, Bachmann gets the support of 48-percent of likely voters surveyed. Challenger Tarryl Clark gets 39-percent. Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson is at six-percent with very few undecided voters.
The SurveyUSA poll results come less than a week after Bachmann reported she’s now raised $4.1 million. Clark is now at $2.1 million but so far only Clark has spent money on television ads in the race.
Clark has been running TV ads attacking Bachmann’s comments about the BP oil spill, which might be keeping Clark within single digits.
University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs says Clark and Bachmann are tied among voters 50 and older, who tend to turn out at the highest rates. However, Bachmann has a 20-point lead among 18 to 49 year olds.
There’s also a huge gender gap. Bachmann has a 25-point lead among males while Clark leads by eight-points among women.
Jacobs points out the fact Bachmann is short of the 50-percent mark gives Clark some hope, but when Bachmann begins running her TV ads, she’ll make a big effort to define Clark as a tax-raising Democrat.
Bachmann won re-election by just three points in 2008 in a Republican-leaning district.
The margin in that race tightened after controversial comments Bachmann made about President Obama.
To view the results of SurveyUSA, click here.
The table below reports data from the two available polls conducted thus far during the 2010 election cycle.
Bachmann Clark Anderson Immelman Undec’d
Public Policy Polling (Dec. 17-20) 55 37 — — 8
KSTP/SurveyUSA (Jul. 9-11) 48 39 6 2 5
Related reports on this site
Poll: Bachmann Approval at 51% (Nov. 14, 2009)
Building a Non-Partisan Coalition (Aug. 5, 2009)
Can a Democrat Beat Bachmann? (July 27, 2009)
Bachmann Rated ‘Most Vulnerable’ (July 24, 2009)
Bachmann Faces Two-Front Fight (July 16, 2009)
MN-06: Who is ‘The Third Man’? (May 24, 2009)
Tinklenberg Challenger Speaks (May 13, 2009)
How to Beat Bachmann (May 9, 2009)
FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago — December 22, 2008
One-year retrospective: One year ago today, I reported that the brother of Muntadhar al-Zeidi, the Iraqi journalist who threw his shoes at President George W. Bush, claimed al-Zeidi’s apology letter was written against his will after he was tortured in detention. The shoe-throwing incident received worldwide media coverage and al-Zeidi became a potent symbol for opponents of the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq.
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