The 2010 election cycle’s first poll in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District race for U.S. Representative has been released. The survey, conducted December 17-20, 2009, shows 53% of U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s constituents approve of the job she is doing.

Dr. Maureen Reed, Rep. Michele Bachmann, and state Sen. Tarryl Clark (Photo collage: MinnPost)

Public Policy Polling

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
December 22, 2009

INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen)

QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312

Bachmann on Solid Ground [PDF]

Raleigh, N.C. — Michele Bachmann may constantly be generating controversy in the national news, but back at home she finds herself in a solid position politically.

53% of her constituents approve of the job Bachmann is doing to 41% who disapprove.

Opinion about her is strongly polarized along party lines with 86% of Republicans approving of her and 83% of Democrats disapproving, but with independents she finds a positive 51/42 spread.

Tested against a couple of her potential Democratic opponents Bachmann leads Maureen Reed 53-37 and Tarryl Clark 55-37.

Clark’s and Reed’s numbers may improve once voters in the district become more aware of who they are. At this point 68% have no opinion about Clark and 82% don’t know enough about Reed to have formed an opinion.

Likely contributing to Bachmann’s present solid standing in the district is the unpopularity of Barack Obama and the national Democratic brand.

After winning 45% in MN-6 last year, Obama’s approval rating with its voters is now just 39%.

Only 29% of voters there express support for the health care bill that passed the House of Representatives last month, a number equal to the percentage of voters in the district who approve of the job Congressional Democrats are doing.

“Michele Bachmann’s constituents don’t seem to mind her penchant for controversial comments,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

“Given how poorly national Democrats rate in the district they probably agree with a lot of them.”

PPP surveyed 719 MN-6 voters from December 17th to 20th. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

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Related commentary

Michele Bachmann’s Standing

By Tom Jensen
Public Policy Polling
December 22, 2009

Michele Bachmann may be controversial but for now she’s also looking pretty safe for reelection.

53% of Bachmann’s constituents approve of the job she’s doing in Congress to 41% who disapprove. Her numbers certainly reflect her polarizing nature, with 86% of Republicans giving her good marks and 83% of Democrats saying they don’t like her performance. But in a GOP leaning district and with a 51% approval from independents it all adds up to a pretty solid standing.

Tested against her potential 2010 opponents Bachmann leads Tarryl Clark 55-37 and Maureen Reed 53-37. The magnitude of those leads at this stage certainly has a lot to do with the Democrats’ low name recognition, as 82% of voters don’t know enough about Reed to have an opinion of her and 68% say the same of Clark. Bachmann’s leads over them will probably get smaller as they become better known, but she is still over the 50% threshold considered safe for an incumbent.

Aiding Bachmann’s standing is tepid feelings by voters in the district toward Democratic politicians. Barack Obama has only a 39% approval rating there after winning 45% of the vote in the district last year. He’s popular compared to the Democrats in Congress — only 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of them and an equal 29% support the health care bill while 56% are opposed.

37% of voters in the district consider Bachmann’s political views to be ‘extremist’ and 36% think she’s too conservative, suggesting that the constituents who dislike her really dislike her, but most voters seem comfortable with her.

In what’s shaping up to be a Republican year Bachmann’s reelection looks pretty likely.

Full results here [PDF]

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The Political Quarry St. Cloud Times reporters keep you up to date on the people and policies that make up local, state and national politics.

Bachmann would rout Clark, Reed if election were held today Posted by Dave Aeikens at 12/22/2009 11:12 AM CST Reed campaign says poll casts doubt on Clark frontrunner status Posted by Dave Aeikens at 12/22/2009 3:58 PM CST

Dem polling firm: Bachmann solid
(By Jason Hoppin, Pioneer Press Political Animal blog, Dec. 22, 2009)

Poll: Bachmann “in a solid position politically”
(By Charles Mahtesian, Politico, Dec. 22, 2009)

Poll shows Bachmann ‘on solid ground’ vs. Clark or Reed
(By Joe Kimball, MinnPost, Dec. 22, 2009)

Bachmann leads DFL opponents in poll
(By Tom Scheck, MPR Polinaut blog, Dec. 22, 2009)

Poll: Bachmann leads Democratic contenders
(Emily Cadei, Poll Tracker, CQ Politics, Dec. 22, 2009)

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12/23/09 Update

Bachmann Leads in New Poll; most say she prefers DC limelight

Rep Michele Bachmann

By Hart Van Denburg
The Blotter news blog
Minneapolis City Pages
December 23, 2009

We’ve said it before, we’ll say it again: Michele Bachmann is crazy like a fox. No matter the gaffe, lie or hypocrisy, she still enjoys a solid majority in the conservative northern suburban district she represents in the U.S. House: Public Policy Polling says she’s in a comfortable lead there over her nearest DFL challengers, Tarryl Clark (55-37 percent) and Maureen Reed (53-37 percent).

Those results prompted crowing in Republican circles, but the results are hardly surprising. The [redistricted] sixth district has been in the GOP column since 2003, and most of those in the new PPP survey identified themselves as either moderate or conservative Republicans. [Note: 36% of respondents identified themselves as Republican, 27% as Democrat, and 38% as independent or other.]

Most of them also said they voted for John McCain and Sarah Palin, don’t think highly of Sens. Amy Klobuchar [actually, 45% approved of Klobchar, 43% disapproved, and 13%  were not sure] and Al Franken, don’t think Bachmann’s an extremist, don’t approve of President Barack Obama and disapprove of the health care reform bill nearing passage in Congress.

But there’s more to the poll results than the “Bachmann leads DFLers in new poll” headline. …

[W]hile the two-term congresswoman may be crazy like a fox, she may also be a little too in love with Fox:

Do you think that Michele Bachmann is more focused on advocating for your district in the US House or being a national leader in the conservative movement?

• Advocating for district: 32 percent
• Leader in national conservative movement: 48 percent
• Not sure: 20 percent

… Full story

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2/12/10 Update

Poll: Majority of Minnesotans ‘Embarrassed’ by Bachmann
(By Paul Schmelzer, The Minnesota Independent, Feb. 12, 2010)

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Related reports on this site

Poll: Bachmann Approval at 51% (Nov. 14, 2009)

Building a Non-Partisan Coalition (Aug. 5, 2009)

Can a Democrat Beat Bachmann? (July 27, 2009)

Bachmann Rated ‘Most Vulnerable’ (July 24, 2009)

Bachmann Faces Two-Front Fight (July 16, 2009)

MN-06: Who is ‘The Third Man’? (May 24, 2009)

Tinklenberg Challenger Speaks (May 13, 2009)

How to Beat Bachmann (May 9, 2009)

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago — December 22, 2008

Baghdad residents take part in a protest demanding Iraqi TV reporter Muntadhar al-Zeidi be freed from detention, Dec. 20, 2008. (Photo credit: Reuters / Mohammed Ameen)

‘Torture’ Drove Bush Apology

One-year retrospective: One year ago today, I reported that the brother of Muntadhar al-Zeidi, the Iraqi journalist who threw his shoes at President George W. Bush, claimed al-Zeidi’s apology letter was written against his will after he was tortured in detention. The shoe-throwing incident received worldwide media coverage and al-Zeidi became a potent symbol for opponents of the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq.