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Dec 22nd, 2009


The 2010 election cycle’s first poll in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District race for U.S. Representative has been released. The survey, conducted December 17-20, 2009, shows 53% of U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann’s constituents approve of the job she is doing.


Dr. Maureen Reed, U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, and Minnesota state Sen. Tarryl Clark
(Photo collage: MinnPost)

Public Policy Polling

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
December 22, 2009

INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen)

QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312

Bachmann on Solid Ground [PDF]

Raleigh, N.C. — Michele Bachmann may constantly be generating controversy in the national news, but back at home she finds herself in a solid position politically.

53% of her constituents approve of the job Bachmann is doing to 41% who disapprove.

Opinion about her is strongly polarized along party lines with 86% of Republicans approving of her and 83% of Democrats disapproving, but with independents she finds a positive 51/42 spread.

Tested against a couple of her potential Democratic opponents Bachmann leads Maureen Reed 53-37 and Tarryl Clark 55-37.

Clark’s and Reed’s numbers may improve once voters in the district become more aware of who they are. At this point 68% have no opinion about Clark and 82% don’t know enough about Reed to have formed an opinion.

Likely contributing to Bachmann’s present solid standing in the district is the unpopularity of Barack Obama and the national Democratic brand.

After winning 45% in MN-6 last year, Obama’s approval rating with its voters is now just 39%.

Only 29% of voters there express support for the health care bill that passed the House of Representatives last month, a number equal to the percentage of voters in the district who approve of the job Congressional Democrats are doing.

“Michele Bachmann’s constituents don’t seem to mind her penchant for controversial comments,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling.

“Given how poorly national Democrats rate in the district they probably agree with a lot of them.”

PPP surveyed 719 MN-6 voters from December 17th to 20th. The margin of error is +/- 3.7%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.

If you would like an interview regarding this release, please contact Dean Debnam at (888) 621-6988 or 919-880-4888.

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Related commentary

Michele Bachmann’s Standing

By Tom Jensen
Public Policy Polling
December 22, 2009

Michele Bachmann may be controversial but for now she’s also looking pretty safe for reelection.

53% of Bachmann’s constituents approve of the job she’s doing in Congress to 41% who disapprove. Her numbers certainly reflect her polarizing nature, with 86% of Republicans giving her good marks and 83% of Democrats saying they don’t like her performance. But in a GOP leaning district and with a 51% approval from independents it all adds up to a pretty solid standing.

Tested against her potential 2010 opponents Bachmann leads Tarryl Clark 55-37 and Maureen Reed 53-37. The magnitude of those leads at this stage certainly has a lot to do with the Democrats’ low name recognition, as 82% of voters don’t know enough about Reed to have an opinion of her and 68% say the same of Clark. Bachmann’s leads over them will probably get smaller as they become better known, but she is still over the 50% threshold considered safe for an incumbent.

Aiding Bachmann’s standing is tepid feelings by voters in the district toward Democratic politicians. Barack Obama has only a 39% approval rating there after winning 45% of the vote in the district last year. He’s popular compared to the Democrats in Congress — only 29% of voters have a favorable opinion of them and an equal 29% support the health care bill while 56% are opposed.

37% of voters in the district consider Bachmann’s political views to be ‘extremist’ and 36% think she’s too conservative, suggesting that the constituents who dislike her really dislike her, but most voters seem comfortable with her.

In what’s shaping up to be a Republican year Bachmann’s reelection looks pretty likely.

Full results here [PDF]

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Related reports

Blog Image
St. Cloud Times reporters keep you up to date on the people and policies that make up local, state and national politics.
Posted by Dave Aeikens at 12/22/2009 11:12 AM CST
Posted by Dave Aeikens at 12/22/2009 3:58 PM CST

Dem polling firm: Bachmann solid
(By Jason Hoppin, Pioneer Press Political Animal blog, Dec. 22, 2009)

Poll: Bachmann “in a solid position politically”
(By Charles Mahtesian, Politico, Dec. 22, 2009)

Poll shows Bachmann ‘on solid ground’ vs. Clark or Reed
(By Joe Kimball, MinnPost, Dec. 22, 2009)

Bachmann leads DFL opponents in poll
(By Tom Scheck, MPR Polinaut blog, Dec. 22, 2009)

Poll: Bachmann leads Democratic contenders
(Emily Cadei, Poll Tracker, CQ Politics, Dec. 22, 2009)

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12/23/2009 Update

Bachmann Leads in New Poll; most say she prefers DC limelight


Rep Michele Bachmann

By Hart Van Denburg
The Blotter news blog
City Pages (Minneapolis)
December 23, 2009

We’ve said it before, we’ll say it again: Michele Bachmann is crazy like a fox. No matter the gaffe, lie or hypocrisy, she still enjoys a solid majority in the conservative northern suburban district she represents in the U.S. House: Public Policy Polling says she’s in a comfortable lead there over her nearest DFL challengers, Tarryl Clark (55-37 percent) and Maureen Reed (53-37 percent).

Those results prompted crowing in Republican circles, but the results are hardly surprising. The [redistricted] sixth district has been in the GOP column since 2003, and most of those in the new PPP survey identified themselves as either moderate or conservative Republicans. [Note: 36% of respondents identified themselves as Republican, 27% as Democrat, and 38% as independent or other.]

Most of them also said they voted for John McCain and Sarah Palin, don’t think highly of Sens. Amy Klobuchar [actually, 45% approved of Klobchar, 43% disapproved, and 13%  were not sure] and Al Franken, don’t think Bachmann’s an extremist, don’t approve of President Barack Obama and disapprove of the health care reform bill nearing passage in Congress.

But there’s more to the poll results than the “Bachmann leads DFLers in new poll” headline. …

[W]hile the two-term congresswoman may be crazy like a fox, she may also be a little too in love with Fox:

Do you think that Michele Bachmann is more focused on advocating for your district in the US House or being a national leader in the conservative movement?

  • Advocating for district: 32 percent
  • Leader in national conservative movement: 48 percent
  • Not sure: 20 percent

Full story

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2/12/2010 Update

Poll: Majority of Minnesotans ‘Embarrassed’ by Bachmann
(By Paul Schmelzer, The Minnesota Independent, Feb. 12, 2010)

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7/14/2010 Update

SurveyUSA Poll: Bachmann Ahead Of Challenger Clark

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By Katie Lynn
KSTP.com
July 13, 2010

The first significant poll in the 6th District Congressional race contains good news for Michele Bachmann but it also gives Tarryl Clark reason to hope she can make a breakthrough in a tough district for Democrats.

The results of our exclusive KSTP/SurveyUSA poll show Republican Michele Bachmann with a significant lead, but with Democrat Tarryl Clark within striking distance.

In the poll conducted Friday through Sunday, Bachmann gets the support of 48-percent of likely voters surveyed. Challenger Tarryl Clark gets 39-percent. Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson is at six-percent with very few undecided voters.

The SurveyUSA poll results come less than a week after Bachmann reported she’s now raised $4.1 million. Clark is now at $2.1 million but so far only Clark has spent money on television ads in the race.

Clark has been running TV ads attacking Bachmann’s comments about the BP oil spill, which might be keeping Clark within single digits.

University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs says Clark and Bachmann are tied among voters 50 and older, who tend to turn out at the highest rates. However, Bachmann has a 20-point lead among 18 to 49 year olds.

There’s also a huge gender gap. Bachmann has a 25-point lead among males while Clark leads by eight-points among women.

Jacobs points out the fact Bachmann is short of the 50-percent mark gives Clark some hope, but when Bachmann begins running her TV ads, she’ll make a big effort to define Clark as a tax-raising Democrat.

Bachmann won re-election by just three points in 2008 in a Republican-leaning district.

The margin in that race tightened after controversial comments Bachmann made about President Obama.

To view the results of SurveyUSA, click here.

Added content

The table below reports data from the two available polls conducted thus far during the 2010 election cycle.

Bachmann Clark Anderson Immelman Undec’d
Public Policy Polling (Dec. 17-20)  55      37          —                 —                 8
KSTP/SurveyUSA (Jul. 9-11)           48     39           6                  2                 5

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Related reports on this site

Poll: Bachmann Approval at 51% (Nov. 14, 2009)

Building a Non-Partisan Coalition (Aug. 5, 2009)

Can a Democrat Beat Bachmann? (July 27, 2009)

Bachmann Rated ‘Most Vulnerable’ (July 24, 2009)

Bachmann Faces Two-Front Fight (July 16, 2009)

MN-06: Who is ‘The Third Man’? (May 24, 2009)

Tinklenberg Challenger Speaks (May 13, 2009)

How to Beat Bachmann (May 9, 2009)

————————————————————————————————————

FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago — December 22, 2008

‘Torture’ Drove Bush Apology

One-year retrospective: One year ago today, I reported that the brother of Muntadhar al-Zeidi, the Iraqi journalist who threw his shoes at President George W. Bush, claimed al-Zeidi’s apology letter was written against his will after he was tortured in detention. The shoe-throwing incident received worldwide media coverage and al-Zeidi became a potent symbol for opponents of the U.S.-led invasion and occupation of Iraq.

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10 Responses to “MN-6 Poll: Bachmann Approval 53%”
  1. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » Bachmann’s March of Folly Says:

    [...] MN-06 Poll: Bachmann Approval 53% (Dec. 22 2009) [...]

  2. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » CQ Rates Bachmann’s Seat Safe Says:

    [...] MN-06 Poll: Bachmann Approval 53% (Dec. 22 2009) [...]

  3. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » Nominating Petition Appeal Says:

    [...] MN-06 Poll: Bachmann Approval 53% [...]

  4. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » Can a Democrat Beat Bachmann? Says:

    [...] Bachmann’s core base of support in the 6th District is in the region of 42 percent; however, recent polling shows that 53 percent of Bachmann’s constituents approve of her job performance, with Bachmann leading Clark 55-37 percent in a head-to-head contest. [...]

  5. Aubrey Immelman Says:

    Cross-posted from MinnPost “D.C. Dispatches” at http://www.minnpost.com/derekwallbank/2010/07/12/19630/bachmann_leads_clark_48-39_in_new_poll

    On July 14, 2010, Aubrey Immelman wrote:

    “For Clark, her mission is to close the gap. Getting Bachmann under 50 percent is a big move …”

    That’s not a very good analysis. Its major flaw is that it fails to account for the fact that the first poll (Public Policy Polling ) surveyed a hypothetical head-to-head contest between Bachmann and Clark, whereas the KSTP/SurveyUSA poll offered respondents a choice among all four candidates on the November ballot.

    Here’s a comparison of the two sets of poll results. If the table layout makes interpretation difficult, go to http://www.immelman.us/news/mn-6-poll-bachmann-approval-53/ and scroll down to see the original table.

    Public Policy Polling (Dec. 17-20, 2009)
    Bachmann 55
    Clark 37
    Undecided 8

    KSTP/SurveyUSA (July 9-11, 2010)
    Bachmann 48 (-7)
    Clark 39 (+2)
    Anderson 6
    Immelman 2
    Undecided 5 (-3)

    Bachmann shed 7 percentage points since the first poll. That can be accounted for by the combined 8 points in the second poll for IP candidate Bob Anderson and independent former Republican Aubrey Immelman, two conservative candidates whose names did not appear on the first survey.

    In addition, Clark’s 2-point gain since the first poll comports with the 3-point reduction in the Undecided column. It’s plausible that Clark’s active campaigning and improved name recognition since the first poll accounts for the reduction in undecided voters.

  6. Aubrey Immelman Says:

    Cross-posted from Dump Bachmann blog comments at http://dumpbachmann.blogspot.com/2010/07/bachmann-on-chris-baker-show-calls-her.html

    Betty writes: “Aubrey, get the hell out of the race and endorse Tarryl. And Anderson dude … Give it up.”

    Immelman and Anderson getting out of the race would be a sure-fire recipe for a landslide Bachmann victory and a humiliating, double-digit Clark loss.

    An analysis of poll results shows that Anderson and Immelman have jointly shaved about 8 percentage points off Bachmann’s poll numbers. No amount of money could buy Clark that kind of advantage and smart Clark supporters know that the most helpful thing they can do for their candidate is to help Immelman get out his anti-Bachmann message. In politics, that means $$, of which I’ve spent about $20,000 of my own.

    Here’s the analysis. If the table layout makes interpretation difficult, go to http://www.immelman.us/news/mn-6-poll-bachmann-approval-53/ and scroll down to see the original table.

    Public Policy Polling (Dec. 17-20, 2009)
    Bachmann 55%
    Clark 37%
    Undecided 8%

    KSTP/SurveyUSA (July 9-11, 2010)
    Bachmann 48% (-7 since Anderson and Immelman joined the race)
    Clark 39% (+2 since Anderson and Immelman joined the race)
    Anderson 6%
    Immelman 2%
    Undecided 5% (-3 since Anderson and Immelman joined the race)

    Bachmann shed 7 percentage points since the first poll. That can be accounted for by the combined 8 points in the second poll for IP candidate Bob Anderson and independent former Republican Aubrey Immelman, two conservative candidates whose names did not appear on the first survey.

    In addition, Clark’s 2-point gain since the first poll comports with the 3-point reduction in the Undecided column. It is plausible that Clark’s active campaigning and improved name recognition since the first poll accounts for the reduction in undecided voters.

    Help level the playing field at http://www.immelman.us/contribute/

    Thursday, July 15, 2010, 11:23:17 AM

  7. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » MN-06: Bachmann Clark Polling Says:

    [...] MN-6 Poll: Bachmann Approval 53% (Dec. 22, 2009) [...]

  8. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » MN-06 Primary Election Results Says:

    [...] MN-06 Poll: Bachmann Approval 53% (Dec. 22, 2009) [...]

  9. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » South Korean Show of Force Says:

    [...] MN-6 Poll: Bachmann Approval 53% [...]

  10. Immelman vs. Bachmann » Blog Archive » Minnesota 6th Congressional District Polling and Analysis Says:

    [...] Bachmann’s favorability in Minnesota’s conservative 6th Congressional District, which she represents, is no doubt considerably higher than her statewide approval. A Public Policy survey conducted December 17-20, 2009 had Bachmann at 53/41 approval/disapproval in her district. [...]

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