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MSNBC TV hosts Chris Matthews, Lawrence O’Donnell, and Rachel Maddow have made early forecasts of the winner of the 2012 presidential election. With the exception of Matthews, the talk show hosts are overconfident of Barack Obama’s prospects for reelection and all three are underestimating Michele Bachmann’s potential for success.

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3 MSNBC Hosts Predict Winner of Presidential Race

Chris Matthews, Rachel Maddow, Lawrence O'Donnell
Chris Matthews, right, host of “Hardball” on MSNBC, answers a question as fellow MSNBC hosts Lawrence O’Donnell, center, and Rachel Maddow look on at the NBC Universal summer press tour, Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2011, in Beverly Hills, Calif. (Photo credit: Chris Pizzello / AP)

By Frazier Moore

August 2, 2011

BEVERLY HILLS, Calif.— When three MSNBC hosts forecast the winner of next year’s presidential race, their choice isn’t surprising, considering the network’s liberal tilt.

But their respective certainty wasn’t uniform when asked that question at an appearance before reporters on Tuesday at a meeting of the Television Critics Association.

Lawrence O’Donnell, host of “The Last Word,” flatly predicted the re-election of President Barack Obama.

Rachel Maddow also named Obama, attributing her pick to a thus-far weak Republican field.

But “Hardball” host Chris Matthews waffled, saying Obama’s fate will rest largely on the economy as well as his GOP rival.

One easy opponent? Mitt Romney, whom Matthews dismissed as “a mood ring.” And should Obama be running against Michele Bachmann, Matthews said, “He’ll just have a hoot.”

Full story

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Related report on this site

Predicting Presidential Election Winners: The Personal Electability Index (May 12, 2011)

Updated Personality Profile -- Michele Bachmann (July 2011)
Click image for larger view

Empirical analysis indicates that Michele Bachmann has a congenial competitor (“happy warrior”) personality type, with a mixed Dominant/controlling and Outgoing/congenial primary personality pattern and secondary features of the Ambitious/confident personality style.

Personal Electability Index (PEI) Scores
of 2012 Presidential Contenders

The Personal Electability Index (PEI) has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996 prior to Super Tuesday.

Michele Bachmann: PEI = 29 (provisional score; study in progress)
Barack Obama: PEI = 28
Tim Pawlenty: PEI = 9 (provisional score; study in progress)
Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

Michele Bachmann: PEI = 29

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:   14   3    5  10  0     0    3    3  0   0   8   0

Bachmann: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 10] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 14] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 - 3)] = 29

Barack Obama: PEI = 28

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:   10   6   11  9   7     1    2     5   4    1   0   4

Obama: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 9] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 11] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 10] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 1] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (5 - 4)] = 28

Tim Pawlenty: PEI = 9

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:    5    3    6   6  10    2    1   12  0   0   4   4

Pawlenty: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 6] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 6] + [Dominance (scale 1A) = 5] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (12 - 4)] = 9

Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:    7    4    5   2   4    0     3   12  1   0   4    4

Romney: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (12 - 4)] = 6

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Update: Related report

What Are the Chances for Republicans?


November 3, 2011

HuntsmanHuntsman RomneyRomney CainCain PerryPerry BachmannBachmann

How would the strength of the economy next year affect each candidate’s chances of defeating President Barack Obama? Nate Silver models the likelihood of each candidate winning the popular vote based on 2012 G.D.P. growth, President Obama’s current approval rating and the ideology of the candidate. Use the slider to see how changes in G.D.P. affect the model.

Full report at the New York Times

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FROM THE ARCHIVES

One Year Ago — August 2, 2010

Endorsement: Vote Independent Tom Horner in Primary

One year ago today, I endorsed former Republican Tom Horner as the best choice for Minnesota in the Independence Party gubernatorial primary.

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Two Years Ago — August 2, 2009

MIA Scott Speicher Recovered

Two years ago today, on August 2, 2009, I reported that the U.S. Department of Defense announced that the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology had positively identified remains recovered in Iraq as those of Navy Captain Michael Scott Speicher, whose F/A-18 Hornet was shot down in a combat mission over Iraq on January 17, 1991 in the first hours of Operation Desert Storm.

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Three Years Ago — August 2, 2008

Campaign Against Michele Bachmann: Day 19

Three years ago today, on August 2, 2008 — the 19th day of my 2008 campaign against incumbent U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann for the Republican nomination in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District — I walked in the Albany Heritage Day Parade.

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3 Responses to “Predicting the Winner of the 2012 Presidential Election”
  1. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » Obama Campaign Tilting at Romney Windmill Says:

    [...] Predicting the Winner of the 2012 Presidential Election (Aug. 2, 2011) [...]

  2. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » Bachmann, Pawlenty ‘Slugfest’ At Iowa GOP / Fox News Debate Says:

    [...] Predicting the Winner of the 2012 Presidential Election (Aug. 2, 2011) [...]

  3. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » Rep. Michele Bachmann’s Campaign for President Says:

    [...] Predicting the Winner of the 2012 Presidential Election (Aug. 2, 2011) [...]

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