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CNN’s “The Point with Chris Cillizza” reports:

The entrance of former VP Joe Biden into the 2020 field has altered the race’s dynamics in lots of ways but none more notable than this: Electability is now front and center.

Biden’s entire candidacy is based on the idea that (a) beating Donald Trump is all that matters and (b) he is by far best positioned to do so.

(Recent CNN polling suggests former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke is actually the strongest general election candidate against Trump right now. O’Rourke led Trump by 10 while Biden held a 6-point edge in a head-to-head match up with Trump.) …

USPP analysis

In contrast to the above analysis by CNN’s “The Point,” the Unit for the Study of Personality’s Presidential Electability Index (PEI), which has accurately predicted — before Super Tuesday — the outcome of every presidential election since 1996, suggests that Joe Biden will be a stronger candidate than Beto O’Rourke in a general election matchup with Donald Trump.

The PEI heuristic model employs candidate personality traits, as publicly perceived, to predict which contender will resonate most favorably with independent and unaffiliated voters who base their voting choice primarily on a candidate’s personal qualities as publicly displayed rather than on party-political affiliation or allegiance.

Below are the PEI scores for Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Beto O’Rourke, based on studies conducted at the USPP.

Donald Trump

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 37-45

 

Joe Biden

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 16-29

 

Beto O’Rourke

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 11-23

 


 

Update: June 27, 2019

With the notable exceptions of Elizabeth Warren and Pete Buttigieg, a Monmouth University poll of likely 2020 New Hampshire Democratic primary voters, conducted May 2-7, 2019, lines up well with ratings of leading Democratic contenders on the Unit for the Study of Personality’s Presidential Electability Index (PEI), which has accurately predicted — before Super Tuesday — the outcome of every presidential election since 1996. (Warren’s PEI score ranks lowest among the seven candidates assessed by USPP investigators, while Buttigieg ranks slightly higher, coming in at sixth.)

Image (truncated) credit: Monmouth University Polling Institute

Below, ranked in descending order of general election electability, are the PEI ratings for the seven Democratic primary contenders studied at the USPP this election cycle, namely, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O’Rourke, Pete Buttigieg, and Elizabeth Warren.

Joe Biden (Monmouth net favorability: +65)

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 16-29 (22.5 ±6.5)

 

Kamala Harris (Monmouth net favorability: +50)

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 13-27 (20 ±7)

 

Bernie Sanders (Monmouth net favorability: +54)

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 16-23 (19.5 ±3.5)

 

Amy Klobuchar (Monmouth net favorability: +33)

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 13-23 (18 ±5)

 

Beto O’Rourke (Monmouth net favorability: +29)

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 11-23 (17 ±6)

 

Pete Buttigieg (Monmouth net favorability: +47)

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 10-18 (14 ±4)

 

Elizabeth Warren (Monmouth net favorability: +39)

Presidential Electability Index

Range: 11-15 (13 ±2)

 


Related link: 2020 Presidential Candidates





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