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Jun 26th, 2011

Bachmann Gives Romney a Run for It in Iowa Poll

Congresswoman shows early strength before official campaign kickoff

Image: Rep. Michele Bachmann
Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., is statistically tied with Mitt Romney at the top of the first Iowa poll of the 2012 Republican presidential primary campaign season. (Photo credit: Sean Gardner / Reuters)

The Associated Press and
June 26, 2011

DES MOINES, Iowa — Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann are neck and neck atop the Des Moines Register Iowa Poll on the Republican presidential field, the newspaper reported Saturday.

In the first Iowa Poll of this campaign cycle, Romney got 23 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers, and Bachmann got 22 percent, the newspaper said.

Romney has been the GOP frontrunner in national polls and announced his candidacy June 2. But tea party favorite Bachmann is only officially announcing her campaign on Monday, in her hometown of Waterloo, Iowa.

“She’s up there as a real competitor and a real contender,” Republican pollster Randy Gutermuth, who is unaffiliated with any of the candidates, told the Register. “This would indicate that she’s going to be a real player in Iowa.”

Former Godfather’s CEO Herman Cain was third with 10 percent, despite never holding public office.

All the other candidates were in single digits, the Register said.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul had 7 percent each; former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 6 percent; former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, 4 percent; and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, 2 percent. …

Bachmann has visited Iowa four times this year and hired two senior caucus staffers, although neither have extensive campaign experience. She also has landed Republican strategist Ed Rollins, a senior adviser to 2008 caucus winner Mike Huckabee. Like Huckabee, Bachmann draws support from evangelical pastors and Christian home-school advocates. …

The Iowa Poll’s results are based on telephone interviews with 400 likely Republican Iowa caucus-goers from June 19 to 22. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Full story


Poll: Support grows for Bachmann (MSNBC “Andrea Mitchell Reports,” June 24, 2011) — Democratic strategist Bob Shrum and Republican strategist David Winston discuss whether Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., will quickly become a 2012 frontrunner. (05:24)


7/11/11 Update

TIR Poll: Bachmann Overtakes Romney in Iowa

Photo: Dave Davidson / The Iowa Republican

By Craig Robinson

July 10, 2011


Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann has surpassed former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in a recent Iowa poll that was conducted by With Bachmann now leading in Iowa, Romney has fallen to second place, but he is still well ahead of third place finisher Tim Pawlenty, who has overtaken Herman Cain by a miniscule margin.

Bachmann received support from 25 percent of likely Iowa caucus goers in the poll, while Romney is backed by 21 percent. The poll also shows signs of growth for former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who now stands in third place in statistical tie with Herman Cain at just under nine percent. Ron Paul finished with six percent, Newt Gingrich with four percent, Rick Santorum with two percent, and Jon Huntsman rounded out the field with one percent.

Bachmann’s campaign has taken off like a rocket since participating and announcing her presidential intentions during the CNN debate in New Hampshire last month. …

While Bachmann’s lead over Romney is just within the margin of error, the poll’s cross tabs show how much momentum her campaign has generated in Iowa. Her favorability is ten points higher than Romney’s, who had the second highest number in that category. Her unfavorable figure is 14 points lower than Romney’s, giving her a stellar plus 65 favorability margin. Her numbers suggest that Bachmann has found a very effective way to appeal to caucus goers. …

Finally, it’s also interesting to see where the candidates are garnering the most support. Bachmann is currently enjoying the most widespread support in the state. She garners the most support in all of Iowa’s media markets except for Sioux City, where Romney leads. She performed the best in the Davenport media market, which is interesting because she has not campaigned there much, but neither has anyone else. …

The poll also asked respondents who they supported in the last caucus cycle. This allowed us to see how well candidates appeal to supporters of previous candidates.  Of those who said they supported Huckabee in 2008, Bachmann got 28 percent. She did even better with those who supported Fred Thompson by garnering 40 percent of his former supporters. Bachmann performed well with McCain voters as well — 24 percent of those who caucused for him in 2008, said they are backing her.

The poll clearly indicates that Bachmann has hit a chord with Iowans. …

Full story


Related reports on this site

U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., greets Irene Blom (right) before speaking at a Presidential Lecture Series sponsored by The Family Leader, Monday, April 11, 2011, in Pella, Iowa. (Photo credit: Charlie Neibergall / The Associated Press)

Bachmann Set to Make Presidential Run Official (June 21, 2011)

Mitt Romney Personality Profile (June 2, 2011)

Iowans ‘Chomping At the Bit’ for Bachmann (May 28, 2011)

Is Michele Bachmann a Flake? (May 17, 2011)

Why Mitt Romney Won’t Win (May 12, 2011)

Native Bachmann Gunning in Iowa (April 12, 2011)


FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago — June 26, 2010

Horner Campaign at Granite City

One year ago today, I reported that central Minnesota voters had the opportunity to meet gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner’s running mate, lieutenant-governor candidate Jim Mulder at the Granite City Days parade in St. Cloud.


FROM THE ARCHIVES: Two Years Ago — June 26, 2009

Iraqis Demand Better Protection

Image: Residents stand at the site of a bombing in the main Shiite district in Baghdad
Residents stand at the site of a bombing in the main Shiite district in Baghdad, Iraq, Thursday, June 25, 2009. (Photo credit: Karim Kadim / AP)

Two years ago today, on June 26, 2009, I reported that angry Iraqis were demanding better protection after a spate of bombings had killed at least 250 and wounded hundreds in just one week as U.S. forces pulled back from urban areas to large military bases in accordance with the 2008 status-of-forces agreement between the United States and Iraq.

7 Responses to “Bachmann Flying High in Iowa”
  1. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » Iraq: Shiite Clerics ‘No’ to U.S. Pact Says:

    […] Bachmann, a tea party favorite, planned to kick off her campaign Monday in Waterloo where she has been greeted with a new poll predicting she’ll be a force in the state that opens the GOP nomination context. The Iowa Poll released Saturday [June 25, 2011] by The Des Moines Register showed her in a statistical tie with Republican rival Mitt Romney among likely caucus-goers. […]

  2. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » Bachmann, Pawlenty Pour It On in War of Words Says:

    […] Bachmann Flying High in Iowa (June 26, 2011) […]

  3. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » Rep. Michele Bachmann’s Campaign for President Says:

    […] Michele Bachmann Flying High in Iowa (June 26, 2011) […]

  4. Immelman for Congress » Blog Archive » Rick Perry Hurts Michele Bachmann in GOP Primary Says:

    […] As a social conservative and founder of the congressional Tea Party Caucus, Michele Bachmann could lay claim to credibility with swaths of likely Republican caucusgoers. […]

  5. Immelman vs. Bachmann » Blog Archive » Take Michele Bachmann Seriously Says:

    […] Michele Bachmann Flying High in Iowa (June 26, 2011) […]

  6. Immelman vs. Bachmann » Blog Archive » Michele Bachmann’s ‘Unproven Allegations’ and ‘Twisted Facts’ Says:

    […] Michele Bachmann Flying High in Iowa (June 26, 2011) […]

  7. The Immelman Turn » Blog Archive » Reawakening: Michele Bachmann Rears Her Head, Again Says:

    […] Michele Bachmann was on the presidential campaign trail and for a moment enjoyed frontrunner status, winning the Iowa straw poll in August before dropping out five months later after a disappointing sixth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses. […]

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