Current Events and the Psychology of Politics
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Summary: Psychological assessments of U.S. presidents and presidential candidates, world leaders, and rogue or terrorist leaders conducted at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics.



Summary: Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., director of the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics, projects Donald Trump will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election, employing the Personal Electability Index (PEI), which has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996 before Super Tuesday.



Summary: Research conducted at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics under the direction of Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., offers a political-psychological explanation for Donald Trump’s personal appeal as a candidate and Jeb Bush’s inability to consolidate his erstwhile front-runner status in the 2016 U.S. presidential election Republican primary. The Personal Electability Index has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since 1996.



Summary: Psychological assessment of Russian president Vladimir Putin, leadership style implications of Putin’s personality profile, and Russian threat assessment with respect to U.S. national security.



Summary: Psychological assessment of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, leadership style implications of Kim’s personality profile, and North Korea threat assessment with respect to U.S. national security.



Summary: A heuristic model developed at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics to predict the winner of the presidential election prior to Super Tuesday indicates that Democratic incumbent President Barack Obama will defeat Republican challenger Gov. Mitt Romney in the November 6, 2012 U.S. presidential election.



Summary: Politico reports that Barack Obama’s aides and advisers are preparing to center the president’s reelection campaign on a ferocious personal assault on Mitt Romney’s character and business background, a strategy grounded in the early-stage expectation that the former Massachusetts governor is the likely GOP nominee. However, the Obama campaign would be sorely misguided if it diverted inordinate resources to fending off Romney as Barack Obama’s likely opponent. Despite being the early front-runner in public opinion polls, Romney is unlikely to be the Republican presidential nominee, with the vastly underestimated Michele Bachmann potentially posing the greater reelection threat to Obama in terms of personal charisma. … One-year retrospective: One year ago today, on August 9, 2010, Aubrey Immelman appealed to Minnesota voters to support Independent Tom Horner for governor in the August 10, 2010 primary election.


May 12th, 2011

Summary: NBC’s Chuck Todd writes that if the object of 2012 Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney’s May 12 health-care speech was “to put the health issue behind him, then the address was an ‘un-Mitt-igated’ failure.” Research conducted at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics under the direction of Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., suggests that Massachusetts’ health law, enacted during Romney’s tenure as governor, may be the least of his problems as he vies for the Republican nomination in a crowded GOP field. In short, Romney lacks the personal charisma to sway non-base voters, as measured by the Personal Electability Index for presidential contenders, developed at the Minnesota-based political psychology research unit. … One-year retrospective: One year ago today, on May 12, 2010, Aubrey Immelman announced that Independence Party-endorsed gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner scheduled a press conference at Stop Light Bait in St. Cloud, ahead of the weekend’s Minnesota’s fishing opener.


Jul 27th, 2009

Summary: First in a two-part series examining the outlook for the 2010 U.S. House of Representatives election in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District. Part I surveys the political environment in which the contest will take place. Part II, to follow closer to the election, will take a look at the candidates. … One-year retrospective: On the 13th day of his campaign against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann for the Republican nomination as House of Representatives candidate in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, Sunday, July 27, 2008, Aubrey Immelman posted a public service announcement to help raise funds for memorials in honor of U.S. soldiers killed in Iraq and Afghanistan and observed a day of rest.