NBC News’ political director Chuck Todd writes that if the object of 2012 Republican presidential contender Mitt Romney’s May 12 health-care speech was “to put the health issue behind him, then the address was an ‘un-Mitt-igated’ failure.”

Mitt Romney (Photo credit: J.D. Pooley / Getty Images)

Research conducted at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics under the direction of Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., suggests that Massachusetts’ health law, enacted during Romney’s tenure as governor, may be the least of his problems as he vies for the Republican nomination in a crowded GOP field.

Romney lacks the personal charisma to sway non-base voters, as measured by the Personal Electability Index for presidential contenders, developed at the Minnesota-based political psychology research unit.

In short, Romney’s Personal Electability Index (PEI) score is 6, compared with 22 for Mike Huckabee and 28 for Barack Obama. PEI scores for other presidential candidates will be released over the summer.

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Predicting the Outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election Before Super Tuesday

Personal Electability Index for Presidential Contenders

Using a formula (technically, a heuristic) developed the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics (USPP) for predicting presidential election outcomes and employing personality data collected in fall 2007 and early 2008 (using the Millon Inventory of Diagnostic Criteria), I made my prediction in February 2008 and posted it on the USPP website at http://faculty.csbsju.edu/uspp/Research/Election-Outcome_Prediction.html, more than nine months before the November election. Based purely on personality variables, I rank-ordered the candidates as follows prior to Super Tuesday:

Barack Obama: PEI = 28
John McCain: PEI = 26
Hillary Clinton: PEI = 23
Mike Huckabee: PEI = 22
Rudy Giuliani: PEI = 19
John Edwards: PEI = 13
Fred Thompson: PEI = 12
Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: PEI = 23

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:   15   4   15   2   1    0     9   11  0   2  16   0

Clinton: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 2] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (11 – 4)] = 23

John Edwards: PEI = 13

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:    3    4    4   6   4     1    2    3   1    0   0   0

Edwards: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 6] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 3] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (3 – 3)] = 13

Barack Obama: PEI = 28

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:   10   6   11  9   7     1    2     5   4    1   0   4

Obama: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 9] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 11] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 10] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 1] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (5 – 4)] = 28

Summary for Democratic Contenders

Barack Obama: PEI = 28
Hillary Clinton: PEI = 23
John Edwards: PEI = 13

Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: PEI = 19

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:   27   3    9   3   0    0     0  10  0   0  12  0

Giuliani: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 9] + [Dominance (scale 1) = (27 – 12)] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (10 – 4)] = 19

Mike Huckabee: PEI = 22

Scale:    1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:    11    5    5  8   4     0    3    2   0   0   0   4

Huckabee: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 8] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 2] = 22

John McCain: PEI = 26

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:  10  16    5  11   0    0    0    0   0   0   0   0

McCain: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 11] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 10] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = 0] = 26

Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:    7    4    5   2   4    0     3   12  1   0   4    4

Romney: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 2] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (12 – 4)] = 6

Fred Thompson: PEI = 12

Scale:    1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:    6     1    4   3   2    0     0    4   2   1   4   0

Thompson: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 6] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 1] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (4 – 4)] = 8

Summary for Republican Contenders

John McCain: PEI = 26
Mike Huckabee: PEI = 22
Rudy Giuliani: PEI = 19
Fred Thompson: PEI = 12
Mitt Romney: PEI = 6

2004 Comparison

George W. Bush: PEI = 31

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:   11   5    4  16  4     0    0    2   0   0   0   4

Bush: [Extraversion (scale 3) = (16 – 1)] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2)] = 30

John Kerry: PEI = 9

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:    6    6    7   0   3    0    3     5   2   3   0   0

Kerry: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 0] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 7] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 6] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 3] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (5 – 4)] = 9

2000 Comparison

George W. Bush: PEI = 31

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:   11   5    4  16  4     0    0    2   0   0   0   4

Bush: [Extraversion (scale 3) = (16 – 1)] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 5] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 11] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2)] = 31

Al Gore: PEI = –17

Scale:   1A  1B   2   3   4   5A  5B   6   7   8   9   0
Score:    8   2    3    1   4     1    3   22  5   11 12   0

Gore: [Extraversion (scale 3) = 1] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 3] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 8] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 11] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (22 – 4)] = –17

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Related reports

Why Mitt Romney won’t be president (Mark McKinnon, The Daily Beast, April 12, 2011) – By all conventional standards, Romney should be running away with the Republican nomination. A solid executive-government experience outside of Washington (a plus these days). Highly successful businessman in the private sector. Solid family man with strong religious background. Personal wealth. Leading man handsome. Prodigious fundraiser. Been-through-this-before drill. Knows the ropes. … But among his long list of impressive credentials, I don’t think president is going to ever make the résumé. … Full story

Mitt Romney. (Photo credit: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images)

Poll shows Romney beating Obama (Reuters, June 7, 2011) — Americans’ disapproval of how President Barack Obama is handling the economy and its growing budget deficit has reached new highs amid broad frustration over the slow pace of economic recovery, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll released on Tuesday. … The poll shows Obama leading five out of six potential Republican presidential rivals but in a dead heat with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney. Among all Americans, Obama and Romney are tied at 47 percent each. Among registered voters, Romney is ahead 49 percent to 46 percent. … Full story

ABC News/Washington Post poll results and analysis

An announcement bump for Mitt Romney and a bus-tour boost for Sarah Palin put the pair atop the field for the Republican presidential nomination. But while their primary standings are similar, their broader prospects for election look vastly different.

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7/12/2011 Update

 Video

Signs of trouble for Mitt Romney (MSNBC “The Last Word,” July 12, 2011) — Nicolle Wallace, senior adviser to John McCain’s 2008 campaign, joins Lawrence O’Donnell with analysis of new poll numbers for Republicans coming out of Iowa. (04:00)

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9/26/2011 Update

Deseret News

Can Mitt make the sale? (Andrew Romano, Newsweek / The Daily Beast, Sept. 25, 2011) — Aubrey Immelman is convinced that Romney will never win the White House. … Romney’s score is a six [on the Personal Electability Index], which is abysmal. Barack Obama, by comparison, earned a 28, and even failed candidates such as Hillary Clinton and John McCain have cleared 20 (23 and 26, respectively). Romney’s problem, according to Immelman, is that modern voters tend to reject two personality types in particular: introverted people, who would “rather lead a life of their own mind than relate to others,” and conscientious people, who are “proper, diligent, detail-oriented, and super-rational.” Romney isn’t especially introverted, but his conscientiousness is pronounced … Full story

Scott P. Yates / Newscom

Sidebar: Presidential personality

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12/2/2011 Update

Focus group reveals why voters don’t like Romney (NBC “First Read,” Dec. 2, 2011) When asked who [Mitt] Romney would be if he were a member of their family, [12 Republican primary voters participating in a focus group that NBC/WSJ pollster Peter Hart (D) conducted in Fairfax, Va., for the Annenberg Public Policy Center] answered, “black sheep,” “fun neighbor,” “cousin,” “second cousin,” “dad that was never home.” … Asked to list his strengths, they responded, “moral character,” “strong leader,” “rolls up his sleeves,” “role model.” … And here were other words they associated with him: “vanilla,” and “manufactured.” In a roundtable with reporters after the focus group, Hart observed that there was “no warmth, no connection” with Romney. Yet Hart cautioned that — a la Nixon in 1968 — he could still end up as president. “No passion, but smart, competent enough to be president, good family values, steady.” … Full story

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12/7/2011 Update: Gingrich displaces Romney as GOP front-runner

Newt Gingrich (Photo credit: The Associated Press via Politico)

“ ‘I think you can write a psychological profile of me that says I found a way to  immerse my insecurities in a cause large enough to justify whatever I wanted it to,’ Newt [Gingrich] once said.” (Roger Simon, Politico, Dec. 12, 2011)

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1/11/2012 Update

Election 2012: Romney May Face Lasting Damage from New Hampshire Campaign

By Philip Rucker

January 10, 2012

Excerpts

MANCHESTER, N.H. — The Mitt Romney who campaigned across New Hampshire the past few days entered the workforce “at the bottom,” feared getting “a pink slip,” doesn’t own four houses (although he thinks “that’s a good idea”) and “never imagined” he would run for office because, as he put it, “I was just a high school kid like everybody else with skinny legs.”

There’s nothing wholly false about the ways Romney has been describing himself. But the descriptions don’t ring true, either.

As Romney heads to South Carolina hoping to polish off his rivals after Tuesday’s primary victory, there may be lasting damage from his week of campaigning in New Hampshire. In trying to correct a weakness — some critics have called it inauthenticity — Romney may have only amplified it. …

America knows Romney not as an aw-shucks, reluctant citizen-politician but as a conscientious scion who worshiped his father, George, the three-term Michigan governor and onetime presidential candidate who long ago groomed young Mitt for high office. “He was teaching me how to get out there,” Romney told Time in 2007.

Around the edges in New Hampshire this past week, the former Massachusetts governor tried to convey everyman sensibilities and experiences. But to voters who already had judged Romney a slippery, stiff and distant politician, the reality he tried to create here didn’t seem real. …

At times, Romney has exaggerated. In 2007, he said during a New Hampshire campaign stop: “I purchased a gun when I was a young man. I’ve been a hunter pretty much all my life.” But, as his spokesman later clarified, Romney had hunted only twice: for rabbits in Idaho with some cousins when he was a teenager and for quail with Republican donors at a Georgia game preserve in 2006.

Aubrey Immelman, director of the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics at St. John’s University in Minnesota, said Romney may be overcompensating for his inability to connect with regular people.

“Romney is neither an introvert nor an extrovert,” said Immelman, who has done personality studies of elected leaders including former presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. “The key is in his conscientiousness. … People that are highly conscientious are just not good campaigners. He might be a good executive — and he may end up being a fine president — but campaigning is his Achilles’ heel.” …

Read the full report at the Washington Post

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Related report

Romney may face lasting damage from N.H. campaign
(The State [S.C.], Jan. 11, 2012)

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2/6/2012 Update

The Upside Of Being An Introvert (And Why Extroverts Are Overrated)

By Bryan Walsh
Magazine
Vol. 179, No. 5, pp. 40-45
Monday, February 6, 2012

Excerpt

“The stereotype that politicians are extraverts has a basis in fact,” says Aubrey Immelman, a psychologist who runs the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics at St. John’s University in Minnesota. “But Obama is relatively modest on that scale.”

That sets him apart from many of his predecessors, like the gregarious George W. Bush, whose bonhomie was one of his great selling points — to say nothing of [Bill] Clinton, who had to be physically torn away from crowds.

But  if extroversion is great on the campaign trail, it doesn’t always help in the business of governing. Both Clinton and Bush endangered their presidencies by engaging in what turned out to be graver risks than they might have imagined: one with an intern, the other in Iraq.

An introvert like Obama is more inclined to think before he acts, and if anything, the President has been criticized as too risk averse. …

Full story

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Note: Neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney is really an introvert as asserted in the Time article. At best, it can be said that neither Obama nor Romney is an extravert. Obama’s MIDC score on extraversion (Scale 3: Outgoing) is 9 and his score on introversion (Scale 8: Retiring) is 1. Romney’s scores, respectively, are 2 for extraversion and 0 for introversion.

Better examples of truly introverted politicians are Richard Nixon (extraversion = 0; introversion = 8) and Al Gore (extraversion = 1; introversion = 11).

Compare that with highly extraverted leaders, like Bill Clinton (extraversion = 15; introversion = 0), George W. Bush (extraversion = 16; introversion = 0), and John McCain (extraversion = 11; introversion = 0).

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Related report

What if Introverts Ruled the World?

By Richard Stengel
Managing Editor
Magazine
Vol. 179, No. 5, p. 2
Monday, February 6, 2012

This week’s cover story (which is one of my favorites) is not about politics. At least, not directly. But in a political season when we are evaluating candidates in terms of leadership and style, it’s worth using the introvert-extrovert framework to look at the campaign. The story, by Bryan Walsh, which draws on research from a new book by Susan Cain called Quiet, suggests that as a society, we have an affinity for extroversion that may not be healthy and a bias against introversion that may not be wise. …

Research suggests that extroverted leaders are more likely to make quick and sometimes rash decisions, while introverted leaders tend to gather more evidence and are slower to judgment. …

Full story

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9/30/2012 Update

Romney or Obama? Political Scientists Make Their Predictions

By Dan Balz
The Take

September 29, 2012

[…]

Out now are a baker’s dozen forecasts produced by political scientists that predict the outcome in November. …

The election forecasts are in fact predictions, based on various and varied statistical models. Most give the advantage to the president, but the verdict is not unanimous.

The 13 projections are contained in the new issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, which is published by the American Political Science Association. Eight of them project that Obama will win the popular vote; five say the popular vote will go to Romney. But the degree of certainty in those forecasts differs. One projection favoring the president says there is an 88 percent certainty that he’ll win, while two others forecasting Obama say there is only a 57 percent certainty.

James E. Campbell, the department chairman at the University at Buffalo in New York, who wrote the introduction to the package, rates them this way: Five predict that Obama will win a plurality of the two-party vote, although three are on “the cusp of a toss-up.” Five predict that Romney will win the plurality of the two-party vote. Three are in what he calls the toss-up range. …

Several of these scholars will talk more about forecasting elections on Oct. 16 [2012] at the National Press Club. …

Full story

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7/17/2015 Update

Let The GOP electability games begin! (Ed Kilgore, TPM, July 17, 2015) — “Electability” is a hardy perennial of every nominating contest. … [T]he issue is getting the maximum ideological bang for one’s political buck. Among Republicans, there’s even a name for that calculation: the Buckley Rule (after William F. Buckley III), which holds that the GOP should nominate for president the most conservative candidate who can reasonably be expected to win. The most traditional test of “electability” is the so-called Median Voter Theorem. … The safest kind of electability arguments are based not on ideological positioning but on demographic or geographic factors. … Another approach to electability is to propose that the candidate has special characteristics that will enable her or him to create a new, mindblowing coalition that transcends the usual partisan attachments. … Full story

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Obama Campaign Tilting at Romney Windmill (Aug. 9, 2011)

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago — May 12, 2010

Tom Horner’s Statewide Swing

Minnesota 6th Congressional District candidate Aubrey Immelman welcomes gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner to St. Cloud for his press conference at Stop Light Bait, May 12, 2010.

One year ago today, I announced that Independence Party-endorsed gubernatorial candidate Tom Horner scheduled a press conference at Stop Light Bait in St. Cloud, ahead of the weekend’s Minnesota’s fishing opener.

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: Two Years Ago — May 12, 2009

GI Opens Fire on U.S. Troops in Iraq

Wilburn C. Russell, 73, wipes his eyes after talking to reporters in front of the house his son U.S. Army Sgt. John Russell purchased in Sherman, Texas. (Photo credit: LM Otero / AP)

Two years ago today, on May 12, 2009, I reported that U.S. Army Sgt. John M. Russell shot and killed five fellow soldiers at a counseling center at Camp Liberty in Iraq. Killed were Cmdr. Charles Keith Springle, 52, a Navy military psychologist from Beaufort, N.C.; Maj. Matthew Houseal, 54, an Army reservist and psychiatrist from Amarillo, Texas; Army Sgt. Christian E. Bueno-Galdos, 25, of Paterson, N.J.; Spc. Jacob D. Barton, 20, of Lenox, Mo.; and Pfc. Michael E. Yates Jr., 19, of Federalsburg, Md.