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Cruz-Trump-Indiana_Redstate
According to a poll by the Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics on Friday, April 29, 2016, Ted Cruz leads Donald Trump 45 percent to 29 percent among registered voters. (Redstate.com)

Tuesday’s Republican primary in Indiana is a must-win for Ted Cruz if he is to have any prospect of preventing Donald Trump from reaching the 1,237 delegates required to secure the Republican nomination for president on the first ballot at the Republican National Convention.

The Personal Electability Index (PEI), developed by Aubrey Immelman, Ph.D., at the Unit for the Study of Personality in Politics (USPP), projects that Trump will edge Cruz in the Indiana Republican primary.

The PEI has accurately predicted, before Super Tuesday, the outcome of every presidential election since 1996. The heuristic model employs candidate personality traits, as publicly perceived, to predict which contender will resonate most favorably with independent and unaffiliated voters that base their voting choice primarily on candidates’ personal qualities as publicly displayed rather than on party-political affiliation or allegiance.

The PEI model’s predictive utility in presidential general elections derives from the practically even division of the nation into reliably Republican and Democratic voting blocks, essentially yielding the balance of power to politically independent and unaffiliated voters comprising roughly one-third of the electorate.

Although the PEI is not designed to predict primary election outcomes it appears to have some practical utility in predicting the results of open primaries, where political affiliation is not a requirement for voting in a partisan ballot.

Indiana effectively (i.e., with some unenforceable restrictions) has an open primary, which favors Trump over Cruz (whose appeal is more ideological and more restricted to conservative Republican base voters).

Research on the psychology of politics conducted at the USPP reveals that voters respond favorably to candidates that are outgoing (extraverted), self-confident (productively narcissistic), and dominant; and negatively to candidates that are introverted and overly conscientious.

Based on those criteria, the Republican contenders on Indiana’s primary ballot rank as follows:

  1. Donald Trump (PEI = 62; 45 corrected score)
  2. Ted Cruz (PEI = 25)
  3. John Kasich (PEI = 14)

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Detailed Personal Electability Index scores

Donald Trump: PEI = 45 (dysfunctionality adjusted)

Trump poster (NCUR)
Click on image for larger view

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  15     11  15  15    1      0      6     2    1     0

Scale: 1A = 15; 2 = 15; 3 =15; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 15] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 15] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 15] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 – 2) = 0] = 45 – 0 = 45

Ted Cruz: PEI = 25

Ted Cruz poster 2015-09
Click on image for larger view

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:  13      6     8    4    0      0      4     2    0    0

Scale: 1A = 13; 2 = 8; 3 = 4; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 4] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 8] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 13] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2) = 0] = 25 – 0 = 25

John Kasich: PEI = 14

Poster - John Kasich 2016
Click on image for larger view

Scale:   1A    1B    2    3    4    5A    5B    6    7    8
Score:    7      3     4    3    5       1      3     2    0    0

Scale: 1A = 7; 2 = 4; 3 = 3; 6 = 2; 8 = 0

[Extraversion (scale 3) = 3] + [Narcissism (scale 2) = 4] + [Dominance (scale 1) = 7] – [Introversion (scale 8) = 0] – [Conscientiousness (scale 6) = (2 - 2) = 0] = 14 – 0 = 14

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May 3, 2016 Update

Cruz: Trump ‘is a pathological liar’


Video: Republican presidential candidate Sen. Ted Cruz had harsh words for rival Donald Trump ahead of the Indiana primary. (Duration: 4:28)

By David Wright and Julia Manchester
http://zignallabs.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/cnn-politics-logo.png
May 3, 2016

Ted Cruz on Tuesday unloaded on Donald Trump, accusing him during a news conference of being a “pathological liar,” “utterly amoral,” “a narcissist at a level I don’t think this country’s ever seen” and “a serial philanderer.”

“He is proud of being a serial philanderer … he describes his own battles with venereal diseases as his own personal Vietnam,” Cruz said, citing a decades-old Trump appearance on “The Howard Stern Show.”

The Texas senator’s dramatic and deeply personal attack on Trump comes as polls indicate Trump is poised to claim victory in Cruz’s must-win state of Indiana and follow accusations the front-runner made about Cruz’s father.

The epic takedown of his opponent on an all-important voting day was extraordinary even by the standards of the 2016 campaign.

“This man is a pathological liar, he doesn’t know the difference between truth and lies … in a pattern that is straight out of a psychology textbook, he accuses everyone of lying,” Cruz said as Indiana voters headed to cast their ballots.

“Whatever lie he’s telling, at that minute he believes it … the man is utterly immoral,” Cruz told reporters. “Donald is a bully … bullies don’t come from strength they come from weakness.”

Earlier Tuesday, Trump had criticized Rafael Cruz, calling him “disgraceful” after he urged evangelical voters in Indiana to reject his son’s rival.

Trump also referenced a report from the tabloid National Enquirer — without naming the publication — which alleged that it had identified Rafael Cruz in a photo with Lee Harvey Oswald months prior to the JFK assassination. CNN has not independently confirmed that report. …

Full report

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May 4, 2016 Update

Indiana-GOP-primary-results

Graphic: The New York Times

Ted Cruz Suspends 2016 Presidential Campaign After Indiana Loss

John Kasich Suspends 2016 Presidential Campaign

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Related reports on this site

Trump-Cruz-Kasich_Greg-Nash_via-The-Hill

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Donald Trump

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Ted Cruz

The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate John Kasich

Projecting the Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election: The Personal Electability Index

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One Response to “Political Armageddon: Ted Cruz Braces for Final Battle on Day of Judgment in Indiana Primary”
  1. The Immelman Turn » Blog Archive » The Personality Profile of 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate Ted Cruz Says:

    […] Political Armageddon: Ted Cruz Braces for Final Battle on Day of Judgment in Indiana Primary (May 2, 2016) […]

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