History Shows Obama, Dems Face Stiff Headwinds
NBC Political Unit
September 24, 2010
WASHINGTON — With the midterm elections less than six weeks away, President Obama and the Democratic Party are suffering from a lack of voter optimism, according to a new Voter Confidence Index created by NBC News and msnbc.com.
Pessimism about the current direction of the nation, lowered approval of Obama’s performance in office and dim views of the Democratic rule in Congress could spell major losses for the party this November — midterm losses similar to those suffered by other presidents in recent history.
The NBC Political Unit and msnbc.com created the VCI as a way to try and measure the current political environment, what it may signal about this fall’s elections — and how it compares with past midterm elections. For the index, we’re using a combination of three questions commonly asked in national polls — the president’s job approval rating, the direction of the country, and the generic congressional ballot. As a dynamic measurement, the index will change over time as attitudes change.
Bottom line: A positive (+) VCI is good for the president’s party; a negative (-) one is bad. Generally, the lower the number, the worse the president’s party performs in the midterms.
History not on Obama’s side
Having begun his presidency with high expectations (and a high VCI), fierce fights over federal stimulus spending and health care have combined with a still-struggling economy and a months-long oil spill to erode voter attitudes. Currently, the VCI shows Obama and the Democratic Party in negative territory, with a -38 VCI average for the month of September.
That’s eight points worse than where President Clinton and the Democrats stood in 1994, when Democrats lost 54 seats in the House and eight in the Senate. Does that mean Democrats are doomed to repeat 1994? Not necessarily. There were mitigating [aggravating?] structural factors in 1994, including more Democratic retirements and an environment that seemed to sneak up on longtime incumbents. Neither is the case this year.
Also consider, the current VCI is 17 points better than where George W. Bush and Republicans stood in 2006, when Republicans lost 30 House seats and six in the Senate. And it’s three points worse than where Ronald Reagan and the GOP stood in 1982. But Republicans then lost 26 House seats and when unemployment was at 10 percent, like it nearly is today.
The bottom line is: The current political environment is bad for Democrats, and that forecasts major losses in November. …
MSNBC Interactive tools
Voter Confidence Index, a new measure from NBC News and MSNBC.com, shows trouble for Democrats. (Image: MSNBC.com)
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Related reports on this site
Democratic Reality Check in 2010? (Aug. 22, 2009)
Can a Democrat Beat Michele Bachmann? (July 27, 2009)
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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago — September 24, 2009
Chuck Hagel Delivers Eugene J. McCarthy Lecture
One year ago today, I reported that former U.S. Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-Neb.), Distinguished Professor in the Practice of National Governance at Georgetown University, delivered the Third Annual Eugene J. McCarthy Lecture at St. John’s University in Collegeville, Minn., on Wednesday, September 23, 2009. The address was titled after Hagel’s book, America: Our Next Chapter — Tough Questions, Straight Answers.
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FROM THE ARCHIVES: Two Years Ago — September 24, 2008
Afghan police officers look for the belongings of their colleagues at the damaged police post after an explosion in the outskirts of Kabul, Afghanistan, on Wednesday, Sept. 24, 2008. (Photo credit: Rafiq Maqbool / AP)
After the Primary Election: Day 15
Two years ago today, on the 15th day after losing my 2008 primary challenge against U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann in Minnesota’s 6th Congressional District, in line with my focus on national security, I reported on the downing of a U.S. drone amid strains between the United States and Pakistan over cross-border incursions; the attempted assassination of the Kabul police’s head of criminal investigations in Afghanistan; and security incidents and U.S. casualties in Iraq.
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September 25th, 2011 at 3:11 am
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