A new SurveyUSA poll, released Thursday night by ABC affiliate KSTP-TV 5 in Minneapolis, shows support for U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) has remained steady in the wake of her controversial statement on MSNBC’s “Hardball” with Chris Matthews, Oct. 17, 2008, that she wants the media to investigate which members of Congress “are pro-America or anti-America.” 

The poll, conducted Oct. 20-21 on a sample of 621 likely voters consisting of 40 percent Republican, 32 percent Democratic, and 25 percent Independent voters — closely matching the party-political composition of the 6th Congressional District — showed Democratic challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg leading Republican incumbent Michele Bachman 47 to 44 percent. Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson was at 6 percent, with 2 percent undecided in the poll, which had a 4 percentage-point margin of sampling error.

Analysis

Examining four polls conducted since late August, Bachmann’s support has remained unchanged and may, in fact, have firmed marginally since the “Hardball” flap. As shown below, Bachmann’s poll numbers improved 4 percentage points in the course of the polling period.

                                                            Bachmann Tinklenberg Anderson Undecided
Grove Insight (Aug. 19-21)                        40            27                 –                 —
Grove Insight (Oct. 10-12)                         42            38                 –                15
Public Opinion Strategies (Oct. 12-13)   44            33                 8                 —
“Hardball” interview (Oct. 17)
SurveyUSA (Oct. 20-21)                            44             47                 6                 2
Mean                                                              42.5         36.3             7.0              8.5
Standard deviation                                      1.7           7.3              1.0              6.5

What appears to have occurred it that the “Hardball” fallout has moved undecided voters — as high as 15 percent in the Oct. 10-12 Grove Insight poll — to Tinklenberg, adding roughly 10 percentage points to his poll numbers. (Note that Bachmann’s poll numbers have a range of just 4 percentage points and a standard deviation of 1.7, whereas Tinklenberg’s numbers have a range of 20 percentage points and a standard deviation of 7.3 points.) 

With just 2 percent undecided voters in the SurveyUSA poll, there does not appear to much leeway for Tinklenberg to advance his 3-point lead beyond the poll’s 4-point margin of error.

SurveyUSA notes that the contest is volatile:

These numbers freeze-frame a pendulum that may not yet have swung its full arc. All interviews were conducted after Bachmann made comments on MSNBC that drew national attention. During the field period for the survey, the National Republican Congressional Committee suspended its advertising in the District and the Democratic candidate raised $1 million. The full impact of those events would not yet be reflected in these poll results.

In addition, the poll does not account for the fact that on Oct. 18, 2008 — the day after Bachmann’s appearance on “Hardball” — her challenger for the Republican nomination (who garnered 14 percent of the vote in the Sept. 9, 2008 primary election), mounted an organized write-in campaign targeting moderate Republican voters disillusioned with Bachmann.

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IRAQ UPDATE

Security Developments in Iraq

Following are security developments in Iraq on Oct. 23, 2008, as reported by Reuters.

BAIJI – A roadside bomb killed two police in the town of Fatha, just north of the refinery city of Baiji, 112 miles north of Baghdad, police said. The police who were killed were part of a force protecting oil facilities in the area.

KUT – Interior Ministry special forces killed one person and seriously wounded another when they opened fire in a crowded market in central Kut, 100 miles south of Baghdad, police said.

BAGHDAD – A suicide car bomber killed 11 people and wounded 22 in a blast that exploded in central Baghdad near a convoy belonging to the Iraqi minister of labor and social affairs, police said. The minister was unharmed.

BAQUBA – A bomb went off in a popular market in the city of Baquba, 40 miles northeast of Baghdad, wounding 15 people, police said.

HILLA – U.S. forces handed over control of Babil province south of Baghdad to Iraq, declaring an area once known as the “triangle of death” safe enough for Iraqi troops to take charge.