The Immelman Turn » Blog Archive » Bachmann Steady Post-Hardball

Oct 25th, 2008

AÂ new poll sponsored byÂ Minnesota Public Radio News and the University of Minnesota’s Hubert H. Humphrey Institute, releasedÂ Friday,Â mirrors the results of the SurveyUSA poll released the previous dayÂ by KSTP-TV: Support for U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) isÂ holding steadyÂ a week after she became a lightning rod for national criticism and media attention for saying on MSNBC’s “Hardball” last week that Barack Obama “may have anti-American views” and the media should investigate which members of Congress “are pro-America or anti-America.”

The poll, conducted Oct. 21-23Â on a sampleÂ ofÂ 430 likely voters showed Democratic challengerÂ Elwyn Tinklenberg leading Republican incumbent Michele Bachmann 45 to 43Â percent. Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson was at 5 percent,Â with 7 percent undecidedÂ in the poll, which hadÂ a 4.7 percentage-point margin ofÂ error.

Larry Jacobs, director of the Humphrey Institute’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, said on MPR that the poll results show Bachmann is losing support even among Republicans, with about one-fifth of respondents supportingÂ Norm Coleman and John McCain sayingÂ they’re not supportingÂ Bachmann.

Analysis

The results confirmÂ my analysis reported yesterday on this blog,Â that Rep. Michele Bachmann’s support has not ebbedÂ in the wake of the “Hardball” imbroglio.

Two partisan polls conducted a week before Bachmann’s “Hardball” appearance — Grove InsightÂ Â (Oct. 10-12)Â on behalf ofÂ Tinklenberg and Public Opinion Strategies (Oct. 12-13) for Bachmann — show Bachmann with a mean of 43 and Tinklenberg with a mean of 35.5.

TwoÂ independent polls conducted in theÂ weekÂ after Bachmann’s “Hardball” appearance — KSTP/SurveyUSA (Oct. 20-21) and MPR/UofM Humphrey Institute (Oct. 21-23)Â — show Bachmann with a mean of 43.5 and Tinklenberg with a mean of 46.

The table below reports the data fromÂ five availableÂ polls and their descriptive statistics.

Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Bachmann Tinklenberg Anderson Undecided
Grove Insight (Aug. 19-21)Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 40Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 27Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â â€“Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â â€“
Grove Insight (Oct. 10-12)Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 42Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 38Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â â€“Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 15
Public Opinion Strategies (Oct. 12-13)Â Â Â 44Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 33Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â â€“
â€œHardballâ€ interview (Oct. 17)
SurveyUSA (Oct. 20-21)Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 44Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 47Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 2
MPR/UofM (Oct. 21-23)Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 43Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 45Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7
MeanÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 42.6Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 38Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 6.3Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 8.8
Standard deviationÂ Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.5Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 7.4Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 1.2Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â Â 5.4

In summary, inspection of the twoÂ pre- and two post-Hardball polls offer no evidence that Rep. BachmannÂ lost voter support as a result ofÂ the remarks she made on “Hardball” and theÂ political firestorm that followed.

What has changed is thatÂ Tinklenberg’s poll numbers advanced by double digits in a matter of days, most likely reflecting a combination of improved name recognition and movement in his direction byÂ independent and undecided voters.

My analysisÂ of yesterday remains unchanged:Â Tinklenberg has reached the ceiling of voter support –Â high mid-40s –Â in theÂ strongly Republican-leaning 6th District.

———

IRAQ UPDATE

Security Developments in Iraq

Following are security developments in IraqÂ onÂ Oct. 24, 2008 as reported by Reuters.

KUT – A mortar bomb killed three children and wounded two others on Thursday when it landed on a house just east of Kut,Â 95 miles southeast of Baghdad, police said.

NEAR TUZ KHURMATO – One Iraqi soldier was killed and two others were wounded when gunmen attacked a checkpoint near Tuz Khurmato,Â 105 miles north of Baghdad, police said. Three suspected militants were also killed.

BAGHDAD – U.S. forces detained eight suspected militants during operations in central Iraq on Thursday and Friday, the U.S. military said.

———

Iraqi Christians Flee Mosul After Death Threats

October 24, 2008

GENEVAÂ — More than half of the Christians living in Mosul have fled the northern Iraqi city in the past two weeks, some going to Syria, after receiving death threats, the United Nations refugee agency said on Friday. …

More than 2,200 Christian families — about 13,000 people — have sought refuge north and east of Mosul, or in nearby Iraqi regions including Dahuk, Arbil and Kirkuk. About 400 crossed into Syria for refuge there …

Syria is already hosting at least 1.2 million Iraqis who have fled war and upheaval in their home country, which U.S.-led forces invaded in 2003.

Full story

———

Other headlines:

Al-Qaida in Iraq’s leader says in a new audiotapeÂ his group is now focused on attacks outside Iraq (AP, Oct. 24, 2008)

Americans show Iraqis how to spend money (AP, Oct. 24, 2008)

9 Responses to “Bachmann Steady Post-Hardball”

Aubrey Immelman Says:
July 22nd, 2009 at 1:35 am
Additional analysis

A commentator recently noted, “Bachmann notoriously shot herself in the foot at a critical time before the election with her charges of ‘anti-Americans in government’ and Obama’s ‘anti-American views.’ That probably led to a wave of disgust with Bachmann among 6th District undecideds …”

Upons closer examination, there’s no empirical support for that theory. Empirical data show that Bachmann’s poll numbers were at 44% the week before her anti-American rant on “Hardball” and remained at 44% the week after.

In five polls conducted between Aug. 19 and Oct. 23, Bachmann’s poll numbers ranged from 40% to 44%, with a mean of 42.6 and a standard deviation of 1.5 (i.e., very stable).

In the same five polls, Tinklenberg’s numbers ranged from 27% to 47%, with a mean of 38 and a standard deviation of 7.4 (i.e., very unstable).

The extreme variability of Tinklenberg’s numbers can be accounted for by the Oct. 17 “Hardball” incident; from Oct. 13 to Oct. 21, Tinklenberg’s number skyrocketed from 33% to 47%.

The attrition in Tinklenberg’s final poll number, from 47% just before the election to 43% on Election Day, can be accounted for by regression to the mean.

The surge in Bachmann’s number from 43% in the final poll to 46% on Election Day can be accounted for by undecideds breaking for the incumbent candidate.
Aubrey Immelman Says:
July 14th, 2010 at 1:07 pm
Cross-posted from Politico Forums at http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39649.html

The table below reports data from all five publicly released polls in the 2008 election cycle. If the layout makes the table difficult to interpret, go to http://www.immelman.us/news/bachmann-steady-post-hardball/ for the original table.

Bachmann Tinklenberg Anderson Undecided
Grove Insight (Aug. 19-21) 40 27 â€“ â€“
Grove Insight (Oct. 10-12) 42 38 â€“ 15
Public Opinion Strategies (Oct. 12-13) 44 33 8 â€“
Hardball interview (Oct. 17, 2008)
SurveyUSA (Oct. 20-21) 44 47 6 2
MPR/UofM (Oct. 21-23) 43 45 5 7
Mean 42.6 38 6.3 8.8
Standard deviation 1.5 7.4 1.2 5.4
Actual election results 46 43 10

In summary, inspection of the two pre- and two post-Hardball (Oct. 17) polls offers no evidence that Rep. Bachmann lost any voter support as a result of the “anti-America” remarks she made on Hardball and the political firestorm that followed.

What changed is that Tinklenbergâ€™s poll numbers advanced by double digits in a matter of days, most likely reflecting a combination of improved name recognition and movement in his direction by independent and undecided voters.

Finally, Bachmann’s 48% in the current SurveyUSA poll is 4 percentage points higher than she received in any poll conducted in 2008, which indicates that she is running stronger than two years ago. Clark’s 39% is marginally better than Tinklenberg’s 33-38% prior to the Hardball incident (but less than his 45-47% post-Hardball polling). Anderson’s 6% is in the same range as the 5-8% he polled in 2008.

In conclusion, if the election were held today, the outcome would be the same as in 2008, with a slightly higher margin of victory for Bachmann.
Aubrey Immelman Says:
July 14th, 2010 at 12:21 pm
Cross-posted from the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute’s “Smart Politics” blog at http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2010/07/inside_the_surveyusa_poll_of_m.php

The earliest publicly available poll in 2008 was conducted in late August, so polls are being conducted unusually early this year.

The table below reports data from all five publicly released polls in the 2008 election cycle. If the layout makes the table difficult to interpret, go to http://www.immelman.us/news/bachmann-steady-post-hardball/ for the original table.

———————————— Bachmann — Tinklenberg — Anderson — Undecided
Grove Insight (Aug. 19-21) —— 40 —— 27 —— No data —— No data
Grove Insight (Oct. 10-12) —— 42 —— 38 —— No data —— 15
Public Opinion Strategies (Oct. 12-13) —— 44 —— 33 —— 8 —— No data
SurveyUSA (Oct. 20-21) —— 44 —— 47 —— 6 —— 2
MPR/UofM (Oct. 21-23) —— 43 —— 45 —— 5 —— 7
Mean —— 42.6 —— 38 —— 6.3 —— 8.8
Standard deviation —— 1.5 —— 7.4 —— 1.2 —— 5.4

In summary, inspection of the two pre- and two post-Hardball (Oct. 17) polls offers no evidence that Rep. Bachmann lost any voter support as a result of the “anti-America” remarks she made on Hardball and the political firestorm that followed.

What changed is that Tinklenbergâ€™s poll numbers advanced by double digits in a matter of days, most likely reflecting a combination of improved name recognition and movement in his direction by independent and undecided voters.

Finally, Bachmann’s 48% in the current SurveyUSA poll is 4 percentage points higher than she received in any poll conducted in 2008, which indicates that she is running stronger than two years ago. Clark’s 39% is marginally better than Tinklenberg’s 33-38% prior to the Hardball incident (but less than his 45-47 post-Hardball polling). Anderson’s 6% is in the same range as the 5-8% he polled in 2008.

In conclusion, if the election were held today, the outcome would be the same as in 2008, with a slightly higher margin of victory for Bachmann.

Posted by: Aubrey Immelman | July 14, 2010 1:06 PM
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