A new poll sponsored by Minnesota Public Radio News and the University of Minnesota’s Hubert H. Humphrey Institute, released Friday, mirrors the results of the SurveyUSA poll released the previous day by KSTP-TV: Support for U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) is holding steady a week after she became a lightning rod for national criticism and media attention for saying on MSNBC’s “Hardball” last week that Barack Obama “may have anti-American views” and the media should investigate which members of Congress “are pro-America or anti-America.”
The poll, conducted Oct. 21-23 on a sample of 430 likely voters showed Democratic challenger Elwyn Tinklenberg leading Republican incumbent Michele Bachmann 45 to 43 percent. Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson was at 5 percent, with 7 percent undecided in the poll, which had a 4.7 percentage-point margin of error.
Larry Jacobs, director of the Humphrey Institute’s Center for the Study of Politics and Governance, said on MPR that the poll results show Bachmann is losing support even among Republicans, with about one-fifth of respondents supporting Norm Coleman and John McCain saying they’re not supporting Bachmann.
The results confirm my analysis reported yesterday on this blog, that Rep. Michele Bachmann’s support has not ebbed in the wake of the “Hardball” imbroglio.
Two partisan polls conducted a week before Bachmann’s “Hardball” appearance — Grove Insight (Oct. 10-12) on behalf of Tinklenberg and Public Opinion Strategies (Oct. 12-13) for Bachmann — show Bachmann with a mean of 43 and Tinklenberg with a mean of 35.5.
Two independent polls conducted in the week after Bachmann’s “Hardball” appearance — KSTP/SurveyUSA (Oct. 20-21) and MPR/UofM Humphrey Institute (Oct. 21-23) – show Bachmann with a mean of 43.5 and Tinklenberg with a mean of 46.
The table below reports the data from five available polls and their descriptive statistics.
Bachmann Tinklenberg Anderson Undecided
Grove Insight (Aug. 19-21) 40 27 – –
Grove Insight (Oct. 10-12) 42 38 – 15
Public Opinion Strategies (Oct. 12-13) 44 33 8 –
“Hardball” interview (Oct. 17)
SurveyUSA (Oct. 20-21) 44 47 6 2
MPR/UofM (Oct. 21-23) 43 45 5 7
Mean 42.6 38 6.3 8.8
Standard deviation 1.5 7.4 1.2 5.4
In summary, inspection of the two pre- and two post-Hardball polls offer no evidence that Rep. Bachmann lost voter support as a result of the remarks she made on “Hardball” and the political firestorm that followed.
What has changed is that Tinklenberg’s poll numbers advanced by double digits in a matter of days, most likely reflecting a combination of improved name recognition and movement in his direction by independent and undecided voters.
My analysis of yesterday remains unchanged: Tinklenberg has reached the ceiling of voter support – high mid-40s – in the strongly Republican-leaning 6th District.
Following are security developments in Iraq on Oct. 24, 2008 as reported by Reuters.
KUT – A mortar bomb killed three children and wounded two others on Thursday when it landed on a house just east of Kut, 95 miles southeast of Baghdad, police said.
NEAR TUZ KHURMATO – One Iraqi soldier was killed and two others were wounded when gunmen attacked a checkpoint near Tuz Khurmato, 105 miles north of Baghdad, police said. Three suspected militants were also killed.
BAGHDAD – U.S. forces detained eight suspected militants during operations in central Iraq on Thursday and Friday, the U.S. military said.
October 24, 2008
GENEVA – More than half of the Christians living in Mosul have fled the northern Iraqi city in the past two weeks, some going to Syria, after receiving death threats, the United Nations refugee agency said on Friday. …
More than 2,200 Christian families — about 13,000 people — have sought refuge north and east of Mosul, or in nearby Iraqi regions including Dahuk, Arbil and Kirkuk. About 400 crossed into Syria for refuge there …
Syria is already hosting at least 1.2 million Iraqis who have fled war and upheaval in their home country, which U.S.-led forces invaded in 2003.
Americans show Iraqis how to spend money (AP, Oct. 24, 2008)
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