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Mar 3rd, 2011


NBC/WSJ Poll: Tea Party Supporters Like Huckabee

By Carrie Dann

First Read
March 1, 2011

They’re expected to make up about half all of Republican presidential primary voters, and they’re surveying their options.

So who’s winning the Tea Party primary so far?

According to a new NBC/WSJ poll, 53 percent of respondents who said they expect to vote in the GOP presidential primary identified themselves as Tea Party supporters. Their favorite candidate right now: the former Arkansas governor who shot to prominence after winning over conservatives in Iowa in 2008.

Among Tea Party backers, 27 percent said Gov. Mike Huckabee would be their first choice among Republican candidates, with an additional 15 percent calling Huckabee their second choice.

Huckabee, who has sent mixed signals about how interested he may be in a White House run that would cut off a lucrative TV contract, had the support of about a quarter of GOP primary voters overall in the poll.

Presumed presidential candidate Mitt Romney fares less well among Tea Party types, with 14 percent calling the former Massachusetts governor their top choice for the nomination. …

Romney was the top choice among GOP primary voters who say they are not Tea Party supporters, with 32 percent of those voters saying he’s their preferred nominee.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich was the top choice of 19 percent of Tea Party backers, with another 8 percent calling him their second choice.

Gingrich, who’s the preferred nominee for about 13 percent of GOP primary voters overall according to the NBC/WSJ poll, unveiled a new website on Thursday that indicates he’s planning to explore a presidential run.

Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, who recently delivered the keynote speech at a meeting of the Tea Party Patriots and released a web video praising the movement, was the first or second choice of a combined 15 percent of Tea Party supporters.  His overall support among all GOP primary voters was at just 3 percent in the survey.

Candidate First choice Second choice
Mike Huckabee 25 13
Mitt Romney 21 16
Sarah Palin 12 14
Newt Gingrich 13   8
Ron Paul   6   6
Tim Pawlenty   3   8
Mitch Daniels   3   2
Rick Santorum   2   4
Jon Huntsman   1   2
Haley Barbour  —   3
Other  2  —
None  4   3
Not sure  8   9

Full poll results

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1/13/11 Update

Newt’s Excuse, Bachmann’s Blunder

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1/16/11 Update

Huckabee, Bachmann Have Most Intense Following in GOP Field

By Frank Newport
Gallup
March 15, 2011

Excerpts

PRINCETON, NJ — Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee leads the field of possible GOP presidential candidates in “positive intensity” among Republicans nationwide with a score of +25 among Republicans who are familiar with him, followed by Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota with a score of +20. Huckabee is recognized by 87% of Republicans, compared with Bachmann’s 52%. A number of other possible Republican presidential candidates trail these two in Positive Intensity Scores, including Sarah Palin, who is the best known of the group.

Republican Presidential Candidate Images

These findings are based on Gallup Daily tracking interviews conducted between Feb. 28 and March 13 with more than 1,500 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide rating each of 12 potential 2012 Republican presidential candidates. Gallup now tracks these candidates’ images on a daily basis, and will report aggregated results on Gallup.com on a weekly basis. …

[Bachmann's] relatively high positioning on this list is noteworthy given her lower name identification of only 52%, indicating that she generates stronger-than-average reactions among those who know her. …

Republican Candidate Images

Among the 12 potential candidates Gallup is tracking at this point, five have 70%+ name identification among Republicans: Palin, Huckabee, Gingrich, Romney, and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas. Bachmann is the only other candidate recognized by a majority of Republicans (52%).

The accompanying chart provides a visual representation of the recognition and Positivity Intensity Score for each GOP candidate included in the current research. The candidates’ positions along the horizontal axis represent their overall name recognition. The candidates’ positions on the vertical axis represent their Positive Intensity Scores.

GOP Candidate Images Among Republicans and Republican-Leaning Independents

Huckabee clearly rises above the rest in terms of his Positive Intensity Score, although he is less well known than Palin, whose high recognition puts her at the far right side of the grid. Bachmann stands out for her high Positive Intensity Score despite her relatively lower recognition.

Positive Intensity Scores Help Pinpoint Challenges Candidates Face

… The strong reactions Bachmann generates may not be surprising given her sometimes controversial statements and her strength among certain segments of Republicans. A key question is whether Bachmann’s appeal will remain as positive as she becomes better known among Republicans. …

[Read the full report at Gallup.com]

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4/6/11 Update

Tea Party Flexes Muscle in 2012 Race

Left, from top to bottom: Mitt Romney, Haley Barbour and Rick Santorum are pictured. Center: A Tea party rally in Washington. Right, from top to bottom: Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty and Newt Gingrich are pictured. | AP Photos
Left, from top to bottom: Mitt Romney, Haley Barbour and Rick Santorum. Center: A Tea party rally in Washington. Right, from top to bottom: Michele Bachmann, Tim Pawlenty and Newt Gingrich. (Photo credit: AP via Politico)

By Kenneth P. Vogel
POLITICO.com Logo - Click to return to home page
April 6, 2011

A mating dance is under way between the tea party and the likely 2012 Republican presidential candidates, with tea party organizers pushing the candidates and their aides to take hard-line positions on cutting the government and reducing taxes in return for possible support.

If the fractious movement comes close to reaching a consensus on a favored candidate it could help determine the identity and platform of the GOP nominee. But it’s also possible that disagreement over which candidate best represents the tea party’s small government ideals could splinter the movement further and show the tea party to be lacking the organizational heft or numbers to be a force in presidential politics. …

Full story

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 Video

Sizing up the 2012 GOP presidential field (MSNBC “Martin Bashir,” Aug. 3, 2011) – New York Magazine’s Frank Rich predicts how the Tea Party and the debt debate will affect the candidates’ popularity among voters. (05:25)

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Related posts on this site


GOP not feeling so grand (MSNBC “Countdown,” Nov. 18, 2008) – The Washington Post’s E.J. Dionne talks about Sen. Chuck Hagel’s tongue-in-cheek assessment of the state of the Republican Party as well as the jabs going back and forth between former presidential candidates Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. (07:18)

Faces of GOP Schism Beginning to Take Shape (Nov. 19, 2008)

Michele Bachmann Eyes ‘Madam President’ (Sept. 9, 2009)

Democrats Link Tim Pawlenty, Michele Bachmann (Sept. 20, 2009)

Mike Huckabee Says Barack Obama Grew Up in Kenya (March 1, 2011)

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: One Year Ago — March 3, 2010

Extremism Explodes in America

Video

One year ago today, I reported that the number of extremist groups in the United States exploded in 2009 as militias and other groups steeped in wild, anti-government conspiracy theories exploited populist anger across the country and infiltrated the mainstream, according to the Southern Poverty Law Center’s (SPLC) 2010 annual Intelligence Report.

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FROM THE ARCHIVES: Two Years Ago — March 3, 2009

U.S. Economy in Depression?

In this photo combo made with file photos, part of...
History repeats? Job hunters mass for $4 a day work in 1935 and the line unwinds outside a New York City job fair in February 2009. (Photo credit: Associated Press)

Two years ago today, on March 3, 2009, I reported that according to some economists, a Depression doesn’t have to be Great, with bread lines, rampant unemployment, and a wipeout in the stock market; the economy can sink into a milder depression — the kind spelled with a lowercase “d” — and it may be happening now.

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9 Responses to “Tea Party Presidential Primary”
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